Indystorm Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 Will the MJO and ENSO shifts have significant influence? Will our current late Feb. stormy pattern on the GFS continue as temps and dews increase in the Midwest? And what about the rubber band theory regarding tornado frequency after relatively modest totals the last few years? What do you think? After a rather disappointing met winter down in my neck of the woods I'm hoping that met spring provides interesting scenarios for us to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 I think it will be an active severe season with more events earlier in the calendar year than what we've had in recent years. Can already see signs of this playing out to some extent but it's a warm-up act for when we actually get into spring, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 Here are a couple of the seasonal models. Something to watch for is possible El Nino development, though if it occurs, the impacts could tend to be felt later in summer (if at all). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 I am in the same boat as the others, going to be active potentially hyperactive at times this Spring, pattern has been locked in like that for a while now. With the fundamental shift in the Northern Pacific from previous years, I don't expect us to have a dull Spring. Those climate model projections would have an active look to them as well, warmth in the east/southeast tells me -PNA will be a dominant feature this Spring, also the cooling along the NW/BC coastline tells me it will probably neutral or +EPO as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Personally I am hoping for something in the 2nd week of April, I have vacation time I am using from 10th-14th with both weekends on the bookends. Hopefully we have something regionally to chase as I don't have any concrete plans yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Personally I am hoping for something in the 2nd week of April, I have vacation time I am using from 10th-14th with both weekends on the bookends. Hopefully we have something regionally to chase as I don't have any concrete plans yet.Regionally as in Great Lakes? I want to go out to the Plains for a few days this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 1 minute ago, nwohweather said: Regionally as in Great Lakes? I want to go out to the Plains for a few days this year If the potential for a very big event were shown in the Plains, I would go during that week. As for right now though, I'd prefer to not have to travel that far if possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 CFS chiclet chart really beginning to hammer next week as we begin met spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 GFS starting to come more in line with Euro for next week, and the potential for that system is sky high with an open gulf and a strong lower amplitude wave coming out. I would really be watching the early to mid part of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 Looks like a warmer than normal March-May is starting to be the dominant forecast call I'm seeing out there. As I prepare to cancel Wxbell, JB just issued their spring forecast and our sub is above normal for the three months. Also thinking most active severe season since 2011. Lastly, hinting at summer thoughts, hot and lower than normal hurricanes. FWLIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, buckeye said: Looks like a warmer than normal March-May is starting to be the dominant forecast call I'm seeing out there. As I prepare to cancel Wxbell, JB just issued their spring forecast and our sub is above normal for the three months. Also thinking most active severe season since 2011. Lastly, hinting at summer thoughts, hot and lower than normal hurricanes. FWLIW Yes, I heard JB is calling for another hot summer. Looks like he thinks a weaker El Nino is coming on as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 47 minutes ago, buckeye said: Looks like a warmer than normal March-May is starting to be the dominant forecast call I'm seeing out there. As I prepare to cancel Wxbell, JB just issued their spring forecast and our sub is above normal for the three months. Also thinking most active severe season since 2011. Lastly, hinting at summer thoughts, hot and lower than normal hurricanes. FWLIW For once I actually agree with him on everything. The only one that might end up being wrong is the lower hurricanes, but that is a toss up with the ENSO transitioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 46 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: Yes, I heard JB is calling for another hot summer. Looks like he thinks a weaker El Nino is coming on as well. I'd take my chances with a weak el nino! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 6 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: I'd take my chances with a weak el nino! As would I! I believe 2002-2003 and 2014-2015 were weak El Ninos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 11 hours ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: As would I! I believe 2002-2003 and 2014-2015 were weak El Ninos. As we're 1951-52 (aka the only real snowy winter of the 50s), 1976-77, 1977-78, 2004-05 to name a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 20 hours ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: Yes, I heard JB is calling for another hot summer. Looks like he thinks a weaker El Nino is coming on as well. I can't believe JB would call for a hot summer with a developing El Nino. Maybe along the east coast but I'd be shocked if he called for a hot summer in most of the country. He seems to love the "Garden of Eden" summers during a developing El Nino. Although he has been talking about how the JMA shows a -PDO which could make a difference I guess in the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 14, 2017 Author Share Posted March 14, 2017 Bump...As was mentioned in the winter long range discussion the storm on the 12z GFS at 240 hrs this Tues. Mar. 14 means business as currently modeled and could offer snow, ice, and severe to please everyone on this board here in the Midwest as currently modeled. One to watch if it maintains itself in subsequent runs, slows down a bit or intensifies. There has been a signal for a storm in this period for quite some time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 I'll just leave this here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Might as well drop this off too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 21 minutes ago, IWXwx said: I'll just leave this here. Looks nice but... I believe March was progged to be above normal as well. Usual grain of salt argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 March probably will end up warmer than average in most areas. The pattern overall looks warmer going forward the rest of the month and the worst of the cold should be over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: March probably will end up warmer than average in most areas. The pattern overall looks warmer going forward the rest of the month and the worst of the cold should be over. Agreed, maybe the far north or eastern sections might be closer to normal or even slightly below, but those to the south or west will be above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 March is currently 2.5 degrees below normal here, the last time we had a month "this cold" was March 2015. As Hoosier mentioned going forward rest of the month, should chew that away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 15 minutes ago, Chambana said: March is currently 2.5 degrees below normal here, the last time we had a month "this cold" was March 2015. As Hoosier mentioned going forward rest of the month, should chew that away. Just curious, what site are you using? CMI is at 0.0 through March 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc0303 Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 4 hours ago, IWXwx said: Might as well drop this off too. As someone in the plains, I like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 16, 2017 Share Posted March 16, 2017 5 hours ago, Hoosier said: March probably will end up warmer than average in most areas. The pattern overall looks warmer going forward the rest of the month and the worst of the cold should be over. True I suppose there's still some time left in the month to rack up some positive anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 On 2017-02-27 at 8:30 AM, roardog said: I can't believe JB would call for a hot summer with a developing El Nino. Maybe along the east coast but I'd be shocked if he called for a hot summer in most of the country. He seems to love the "Garden of Eden" summers during a developing El Nino. Although he has been talking about how the JMA shows a -PDO which could make a difference I guess in the forecast. Correct me if I'm wrong, but would it not be unusual to have a hot summer when an El Nino is developing? Those summers tend to be cooler than average, or average at best. I think of the summers of 1976, 1992 and 1997, to name a few, although Mount Pinatubo likely played a role in making summer 1992 so cool. One exception would appear to be 2002, which had a cool spring, but a hot summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 8 hours ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: Correct me if I'm wrong, but would it not be unusual to have a hot summer when an El Nino is developing? Those summers tend to be cooler than average, or average at best. I think of the summers of 1976, 1992 and 1997, to name a few, although Mount Pinatubo likely played a role in making summer 1992 so cool. One exception would appear to be 2002, which had a cool spring, but a hot summer. The official Weatherbell summer forecast has the majority of the US with above normal temps. JB said they expect the warmest part of summer to be the first half. He doesn't explain why they have such a warm forecast when developing El Niño's are "Garden of Eden" summers according to Weatherbell. The forecasted El Niño could very well fail but JB and Daleo are really hyping it up right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted March 17, 2017 Share Posted March 17, 2017 15 hours ago, Hoosier said: Just curious, what site are you using? CMI is at 0.0 through March 15. Wow, either I need my eyes checked, or I definitely needed another cup of coffee yesterday morning when reading the temperature map for the month, lol. Yes, you are correct, near average for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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