Chicago Storm Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 Already have a severe thread, so here's a thread for everything else. Could be a sig snow for parts of MN/IA/WI/MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 12z GFS and GEM both south a bit, show several inches of snow into northeast Iowa. The UK continues south as well. The euro remains north of the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 Winter will indeed come back with a vengeance. Also need to watch the storm on Feb 26-27 as the GFS has shown consistency for multiple runs (EURO and CMC don't show it, though). Very very bad news to any budding trees. I should also note that this potential significant snowstorm will occur on the 10 year anniversary of the worst ice storm that Iowa has seen in decades and the worst that I've ever experienced in my lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 18, 2017 Share Posted February 18, 2017 GFS is a yo-yo today. 6z took a big step south,12z back north a good bit and now 18z back south some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 The UK is just getting into range. It is certainly farther south than other models, and considerably slower than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 whatever porks Milwaukee and Ashland, WI. will verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 I'm becoming fairly interested in the high wind potential behind the surface low on Friday. The Euro would indicate high wind warning criteria potential for the southeast 1/3rd of IA, and about the northern 1/3rd of IL. Dewpoints crash from the mid 50s to the mid 20s behind the dry line/cold front. This would indicate excellent mixing. 06z GFS looks like it mixes up to 850mb. Would guess Euro may mix even higher, as dews are a little lower, and the surface low is several millibars lower. Euro has a swath of 50-55kts atop the mixed layer if you base that on the 850mb the GFS shows. Assuming a little better mixing than what the GFS shows and we'd be looking more like 55-60kts. This would imply a region of 55-65mph gust potential from southeast Iowa through northern IL from mid morning until evening. Still a good 130hrs or so out, so we'll likely see some changes by then. The Euro has had a history of being too amped up with systems in this time period, only to back down as we get closer. So far it's been pretty consistent in showing a very strong surface cyclone, and a sharp dry line quickly advancing through the MW. Hopefully it holds true this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 Boys I think we have ourselves a strong one comin'. Exactly when and where is kind of early to tell.... But the northern third of IA especially, WATCH OUT!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 11 hours ago, UMB WX said: whatever porks Milwaukee and Ashland, WI. will verify Lock todays 12z gfs in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 2 hours ago, ConvectiveIA said: Boys I think we have ourselves a strong one comin'. Exactly when and where is kind of early to tell.... But the northern third of IA especially, WATCH OUT!!! People of Iowa, be prepared. Order your pizzas and order your Chinese food and five cases of pop because it’s going to be a terrible snowstorm to hit Iowa... have your iPads and your iPhones charged just in case the power goes out... do your grocery shopping right now. Don’t wait for the last minute. Do it RIGHT NOW." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 Since it's very likely going to be a very wet snow and possibly some major wind and the premature budding of trees, this could lead to some substantial power outages in areas that get tons of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 2 hours ago, UMB WX said: People of Iowa, be prepared. Order your pizzas and order your Chinese food and five cases of pop because it’s going to be a terrible snowstorm to hit Iowa... have your iPads and your iPhones charged just in case the power goes out... do your grocery shopping right now. Don’t wait for the last minute. Do it RIGHT NOW." Frankie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Younar Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 18z GFS buries southeast MN and west central WI. That has been a winning storm track the last three years. A couple more ticks nw and us in the twin cities may finally be able to cash in, too. Looks like a stormy period for the upper Midwest to ensue afterwards.. at least per GFS. Granted it is fantasy land but the 240 hr clown maps are just bonkers for parts of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 48 minutes ago, Younar said: 18z GFS buries southeast MN and west central WI. That has been a winning storm track the last three years. A couple more ticks nw and us in the twin cities may finally be able to cash in, too. Looks like a stormy period for the upper Midwest to ensue afterwards.. at least per GFS. Granted it is fantasy land but the 240 hr clown maps are just bonkers for parts of the region. And there's been some degree of consistency or at least repeated "bonkers" maps in this range, which still is hard to take too seriously but it's more than just one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 45 minutes ago, ConvectiveIA said: And there's been some degree of consistency or at least repeated "bonkers" maps in this range, which still is hard to take too seriously but it's more than just one run. Agree. I like to look at the 10-day total precip on each GFS run, just to get an idea of the pattern. In much of the Midwest, several GFS runs in a row have shown 2-3" liquid over the next 10 days. Yes, these are just op runs...but the consistency tells me it's a pretty reliable signal. So, the next question becomes the exact storm tracks, i.e., rain/snow lines. As of now, it looks to favor the upper Midwest. While this would be annoying IMBY, all of us can at least look forward to a pattern that appears to be active during the last week of Feb into early March. In this disaster of a Winter, it's the best we can hope for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 4 hours ago, beavis1729 said: Agree. I like to look at the 10-day total precip on each GFS run, just to get an idea of the pattern. In much of the Midwest, several GFS runs in a row have shown 2-3" liquid over the next 10 days. Yes, these are just op runs...but the consistency tells me it's a pretty reliable signal. So, the next question becomes the exact storm tracks, i.e., rain/snow lines. As of now, it looks to favor the upper Midwest. While this would be annoying IMBY, all of us can at least look forward to a pattern that appears to be active during the last week of Feb into early March. In this disaster of a Winter, it's the best we can hope for. 00z GFS is coming in a tick south with the rain/snow line thru 138hrs. Will update (by editing) once clown range comes in, just for the heck of it. Update: Aaaaand, it's south. It's cold and snowy. Widespread swaths of 6+ inch totals. It's clown range here but again we've got strong consistency going on. The takeaway is that this is at last we'll have a cool system to keep our eyes on and somewhere someone's gonna get some snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 1 hour ago, ConvectiveIA said: 00z GFS is coming in a tick south with the rain/snow line thru 138hrs. Will update (by editing) once clown range comes in, just for the heck of it. Update: Aaaaand, it's south. It's cold and snowy. Widespread swaths of 6+ inch totals. It's clown range here but again we've got strong consistency going on. The takeaway is that this is at last we'll have a cool system to keep our eyes on and somewhere someone's gonna get some snow! A little more south and colder please, 0z GFS has around 0.9" frozen IMBY with almost 2" total qpf. Interesting how the crazy uncle ukie keeps staying WAY south of all the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 lol @ Euro. 00z about 8-12mb weaker with the surface low compared to several previous runs. Delays strengthening as well. It's been horrible this season with over-amped storm systems beyond 84hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 The first part of this is beginning to come into range on the NAM, and the 00z NAM looks preliminarily snowier than the sneak-peak glimpses of the 18z NAM. The ra to sn changeover for the 00z NAM looks swifter and sooner, if not also further south, than the 18z GFS. But even the 18z GFS itself added yet another link to a long chain of consistent ultimate heavy-snow-week signals for a large swath of the upper and even central Midwest. Excited for upcoming the 00z Canadian and GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 0z GFS has the Twin Cities buried. Also significantly more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Significant differences between the NAM and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 32 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Significant differences between the NAM and GFS. absolutely not a nice GFS run. (00z). Canadian ok Traditional flip-flopping here. Any way you slice it most of us are uncomfortably south with this first one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 As usual, models have begun to turn on us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Yeah this looks to fit the pattern of the winter. Heaviest snows from northern Iowa up into southern MN. I haven't checked, but there has to be a HUGE range of seasonal snowfall totals from northern to central Iowa. Only to get even steeper after this system I'm afraid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Yeah this looks to fit the pattern of the winter. Heaviest snows from northern Iowa up into southern MN. I haven't checked, but there has to be a HUGE range of seasonal snowfall totals from northern to central Iowa. Only to get even steeper after this system I'm afraid. HUGE gradient indeed. I guess it's "Whatever" then. Exciting hot thunderstorm season is just around the corner anyway. And in these parts, (IOWA in general) that rarely lets ya down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 37 minutes ago, ConvectiveIA said: HUGE gradient indeed. I guess it's "Whatever" then. Exciting hot thunderstorm season is just around the corner anyway. And in these parts, (IOWA in general) that rarely lets ya down. Unless tornadoes are your thing. We excel at squall line production however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 7 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Unless tornadoes are your thing. We excel at squall line production however. I did notice last summer how Nebraska (and the other plains states) were home for the big round supercells, but that those morph into "MCS" lines by about the time they reach Central IA and points east :). Still pretty cool thunderstorms though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Younar Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Truly cannot get a better track for the twin cities than what the 12z GFS is printing out right now. Surface low goes from southwest Iowa to La Crosse where it briefly spins its wheels a bit before pulling away. And it results in about 18 inches verbatim. Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 Trend South Trend South Trend South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 not buying the south shift. there's really nothing stopping this from cutting farther NW. wouldn't make sense to see it cut through Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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