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Feb 24-25th Severe Weather


Anti tornado

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I must say, it's both pretty sad and and impressive when the best lightning storm we've seen in at least 5 years comes in February of all months. I'd say about 90% of the strikes (and they were frequent) were cloud-to-ground, which had become exceedingly rare around here until today. :lol: 

Hopefully, the impressive mid-level lapse rates we're working with today is a sign of things to come for the heart of severe weather season (for once).

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Mesoscale Discussion 0205
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0456 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

   Areas affected...Southern Lower MI...IN...and western OH

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 37...

   Valid 242256Z - 250030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 37
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Mainly a large hail and damaging wind threat continues
   across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 37. The prospect for a downstream
   watch into western OH in the next hour or two is unclear.

   DISCUSSION...Convection has recently intensified within a
   pre-frontal confluence band across eastern IN and western OH
   (in/near eastern portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 37). Farther
   west, thunderstorms remain disorganized along an eastward advancing
   cold front in southern Lower MI and western/central IN. With only
   modest surface heating and dewpoints in the low to mid 50s,
   instability remains weak (MLCAPE generally at or below 500 J/kg)
   even with steep mid-level lapse rates present. Within mid-level
   winds forecast to continue strengthening through the early evening
   hours with the approach of an upper trough from the west, there is
   some chance that the pre-frontal line may continue strengthening as
   it moves into western OH even given the thermodynamic limitations.
   Large hail and strong to locally damaging winds would be the main
   threats. A downstream watch may need to be considered if the
   pre-frontal convection continues to intensify over the next hour or
   two.

   Large hail and damaging winds remain possible with thunderstorms
   along the cold front within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 37, although
   low-level winds ahead of the cold front have veered to
   southwesterly, limiting convergence along the front. The possibility
   for a tornado or two in the short term may be slightly higher near a
   warm front draped southwest-northeast across southern Lower MI where
   effective SRH around 250 m2/s2 resides.

   ..Gleason.. 02/24/2017

 

mcd0205.gif

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3 minutes ago, Powerball said:

I must say, it's both pretty sad and and impressive when the best lightning storm we've seen in at least 5 years comes in February of all months. I'd say about 90% of the strikes (and they were frequent) were cloud-to-ground, which had become exceedingly rare around here until today. :lol: 

Hopefully, the impressive mid-level lapse rates we're working with today is a sign of things to come for the heart of severe weather season (for once).

I was impressed with the amount of CG I was seeing coming into work for a storm over 10 miles away, even now I am still seeing occasional lightning on the backside of the storms to my south and east.

As for the lapse rates, I think you have a point, the source region this year looks to be pretty pristine with respect to the EML with great lapse rates. Could really lead to a volatile spring especially if we remain active like we have most of the winter.

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Warning here now.

 

Quote

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
740 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2017

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northwestern Greene County in west central Ohio...
  Montgomery County in west central Ohio...

* Until 815 PM EST.

* At 739 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Carlisle,
  moving northeast at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
           to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
  Dayton, Kettering, Beavercreek, Huber Heights, Fairborn, Trotwood,
  Miamisburg, Vandalia, Moraine, Carlisle, Oakwood, Wright-Patterson
  Afb, West Carrollton, Riverside, Germantown, Centerville, Drexel,
  Woodbourne-Hyde Park, Overlook-Page Mano and Trebein.

This includes the following Interstates...
I-70 in Ohio near mile marker 37.
I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 44 and 59.

 

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The National Weather Service in Northern Indiana  has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Western Fulton County in northwestern Ohio...
  Southeastern Williams County in northwestern Ohio...

* Until 930 PM EST

* At 855 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm was located over Bryan, moving
  northeast at 55 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail. 

  SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

  IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

* Locations impacted include...
  Bryan, Archbold, West Unity, Stryker, Fayette, Pulaski, Elmira,
  Hallock and Zone.

This includes INTERSTATE 80 IN OHIO between MILE MARKERs 17 and 26.

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6 hours ago, andyhb said:

Lol, in other words, this is basically cooked.

Combination of things seems like it messed up the tornado potential.  Wonder how it would've gone with a deepening low and a bit more moisture.

About 2 dozen severe reports so far.  Not impressive on its face but for the geographic area in the month of February, not awful.

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