Powerball Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 GRR update... 000 FXUS63 KGRR 241610 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1110 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 LATEST UPDATE... Update .UPDATE... Issued at 1109 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 Low pressure will track across the southern CWA this evening. This will bring a warm front into the our area. The SPC outlook of enhanced risk of severe storms lines up very well where this warm front is expected to lift. This SE area of our CWA should see CAPE values approach 1000 J/KG along with helicity values around 300 m2/s2. Concern for isolated tornadoes remains in this region. Any storms going north of a Holland-St. Johns line could be severe, but they will be entering the cooler and less unstable air, so they should begin to weaken and become more elevated, where hail becomes the main threat. A conveyor belt of moisture is maintained over Western IN into SW MI where a few showers exist late this morning. This should also be the region of more development through the mid/late afternoon. Convective allowing models suggest storms organizing after 21Z, and then clearing the CWA by 04Z. Temps are tough today with a large gradient across the CWA. Expect highs around 40 north, to the lower 60s south. Nudged temps upward across the central CWA. Most areas should see their max temps in the early evening as the low comes through. Have allowed the winter weather advisory to expire. An occasional mix will still be possible across Highway 10, but impacts are no longer expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 IWX update... 000 FXUS63 KIWX 241400 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 900 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 831 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 Forecast updated to reflect continued mention of showers/isol storms as nose of elevated instability works across the area. Few higher reflectivity cores suggested a marginal severe hail risk but thus far only pea to half inch diameter hail (lots of lightning though). Once this passes by, vis sat shows at least partial clearing if not a period of mostly sunny skies until cloud cover begins to move back in with pre frontal trough. Clearing should allow for a rapid warm up this morning into the 60s. Lots of uncertainty with regards to severe potential this afternoon/evening as a dynamically volatile, but moisture starved environment will reside across the area. Main threat may end up on the cold front itself late this afternoon into this evening with mainly damaging winds (isolated tornado). Pre-frontal trough still being shown as active on some of the hi res guidance so can`t let our guard down this afternoon, especially seeing how vigorous development has been in some areas this morning with elevated storms. Strong capping should move in through much of the day which may keep the pre frontal trough less active. 13Z SPC outlook brought the slight and enhanced risks back to the west a touch. Will continue to monitor the situation and update as needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 Getting some passing altocumulus castellanus clouds right now, which really shows the extent of instability out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 Nice little updrafts going up near IWX. Can see them on ZDR (.5) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 1125 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 Mesoscale Update...Initial showers/isol storms have either pushed NE of the area or weakened as main warm front was now residing across southern Lower Michigan. South of the front, much of the forecast area was in a capped warm sector with temperatures in the lower to middle 60s and dewpoints in the middle 50s (FWA already shattered their record, now sitting at 68). Sufficient mixing has been occuring of the higher low level wind fields to bring gusts to 30 knots in several locations. Near the lake shore, combination of lake shadow and proximity to front yields a much colder setup with readings only in the mid 40s to near 50. Effective warm front could pose a severe threat for locations mainly north of the toll road with strongest shear expected to reside there. However, may push just far enough north to push most impacts just north of the forecast area. Pre frontal trough has been agitated over the past few hours as suggested by HRRR but capping in place has generally limited development. Steepening mid level lapse rates may help to allow more robust updrafts to punch what should be a slowly weakening cap this afternoon (lightning strike now showing in Cass Co Indiana). Can`t justify more than slgt chance to chance pops until more expanded development occurs. 15Z HRRR suggests expansion of convection along this trough and even more robust development along the cold front, currently across Central Illinois as it moves east. Effective shear in excess of 60 kts and expanding EML should still make for pockets of damaging wind potential as well as tornadic threat with any discrete cells. Situation will be monitored closely. Only minor changes to SWODY1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 The convection in Indiana doesn't look like it's effecting much, temps and dew's are still rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti tornado Posted February 24, 2017 Author Share Posted February 24, 2017 25-30 mph winds out of south near botkins Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 Immediately after the shower went through, The sun came back out immediately after the shower went by. Mesoanalysis shows good instability and shear still ahead of the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 Impressive temperature gradient between Northern Calhoun County and southern Calhoun County. 50° and grey with a cool NE breeze on the north side, and party cloudy and 65° in the southern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 73/56 here currently. Still looks as if there's a cap on off to west of hereSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 Low clouds have filled back in. Hopefully, this and the ongoing weak convection along the pre-frontal trough doesn't: 1. **** up the severe weather potential 2. Ruin DTW's shot at hitting 70*F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 Well fwiw temp has actually dropped to 49° with drizzle imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 dewpoints dropping and mixing out in sunny areas latest HRRR drops dews to upper 40's/around 50 even into OH...about 3-4 degrees lower then 12z NAM SE lower michigan will just get enough heating but not too much to mix.....time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 Having a few meager elevated cells passing through a lot earlier than expected. Cloud bases well over 1K ft. Looks like the cap is still holding firm. Think we hit our hi of 70 a couple of hours ago now down to 65/53. Not looking very promising around these parts unless we get some up tick with the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 Winds have largely veered to SW across IN/OH, with the exception being up in far northern IN. Southern MI looks okay too with better low level turning/SRH. There are signs that some backing may take place by late afternoon a bit downstream, but for the next couple of hours, the setup looks relatively benign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 Lol, in other words, this is basically cooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 If we end up with more storms later, mid level lapse rates look favorable for hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 Sun is back out after the cell that just went through 30 mins ago, temps and dew are recovering easily. Also the SPC is still confident ..SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO PREVIOUS OUTLOOK. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF STORMS ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM SOUTHERN IN TO SOUTHEAST LOWER MI HAS BEEN SLOW TO INTENSIFY. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A RESIDUAL INVERSION AND MODEST CAPE WHICH ARE LIMITING OVERALL UPDRAFT STRENGTH. AS DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO ACT ON THE INVERSION LAYER, FURTHER INCREASE IN CONVECTION WITHIN THIS BAND WILL PROBABLY OCCUR. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. INITIAL STORM MODES WILL BE PRIMARILY DISCRETE, BUT EVOLUTION TO LINES SEGMENTS MAY OCCUR, ESPECIALLY WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGER LINEAR FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. WARM SECTOR WIND PROFILES ARE UNIDIRECTIONAL, BUT WITH STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS. THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE, OVERALL TORNADO THREAT MAY BE MITIGATED TO SOME EXTENT BY MODEST CAPE AND 0-1 KM HODOGRAPH SIZE. OTHERWISE PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO TREND TOWARD DAMAGING WIND, ESPECIALLY AS STORMS DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 MD out, 60% watch chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 Seeing some rotation starting to form on this cell to my west, also visually lightning increasing considerably in the last 20 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 IWX eyeing the next hour or two for good development with the shortwave Convective event slowly unfolding in what is more of a typical March/April airmass with much of the area well rooted in the warm sector as low pressure tracks across far NW parts of the area this afternoon. Record already broke at Ft Wayne with a high of 69. Most areas seeing temps in the 60s with dewpoints in the mid 50s. Lakeshore areas have not gotten to enjoy the warm air thus far. Pre frontal trough has been attempting to light up and initially struggled as strong EML kept things capped and updraft strength limited. Shortwave trough now approaching and allowing for uptick in convective initiation and subsequent severe threat, especially into SE Michigan as well as portions of NW Ohio. Will need to watch these areas but main area of concern now highlighted by recent SWOMCD issued for convective threat along the cold front with radar showing very disorganized development from NW Indiana into portions of Illinois. To summarize, strong to severe storms still possible into the evening hours with high res models suggesting potential at least scattered reports of wind damage in any LEWP/QLSC signatures and a risk for large hail/isolated tornadoes in discrete cells or in notches on above mentioned convective lines. Severe threat should end rapidly by 3Z with colder air rapidly falling in behind the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 Picked up about 4" of thundersnow earlier now may get a couple thunderstorms with pea sized hail possibly what a weird winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 PM per NOAA Weather Radio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 Great CAPE here in NW Ohio with little cap left, just need it to fully break. Helicity and shear for the most part still in Indiana, while best instability is over us, get that to overlap and things could get interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 I will add too the storm to watch currently other than the hailer rolling through Detroit is the storm just north of Muncie. Increasingly looking more impressive on radar and gaining a ton of lightning strikes per RadarScope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 Graphical representation of the Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, Jim Martin said: Graphical representation of the Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect currently. The storms out west in Indiana are doing all right for not being in the best environment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 Pre-frontal line getting its act together. Now a warning west of Fort Wayne for quarter size hail and 60 MPH wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 2 hours ago, Powerball said: Low clouds have filled back in. Hopefully, this and the ongoing weak convection along the pre-frontal trough doesn't: 1. **** up the severe weather potential 2. Ruin DTW's shot at hitting 70*F. I guess Mother Nature shut me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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