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Coop Crushing Snow Observations 02/15/17


wxeyeNH

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53 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not bad. It sounded like Brian was going to pull an Ozzy Osbourne on those poor chicks.

lol...not even close to that point. In fact it's tiring me out. I spend 3hrs clearing snow for every event..big or small. I'm looking forward to the break.

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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

This turned into a TROWAL deal. I don't really see an inverted trough look. 

700 mb potential temp forecast plots had that look yesterday. 

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Wow NH fail on that snow? Seems like extreme eastern NH at least got WSW snow.

It's too bad we expanded west with the warnings on the overnight. 

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nice. Why did you move up there? Work? Looks like a good spot with a bit of elevation to help.

Meh.

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10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

700 mb potential temp forecast plots had that look yesterday. 

It's too bad we expanded west with the warnings on the overnight. 

Meh.

Yeah, I expected more of a stronger band swinging down this morning. This just looked like pure TROWAL. Should have near 3". Not bad. Seemed like 93-rt 3 (s shore) corridor on east had anything appreciable. 

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Sick

2/16/2017   7:30 AM   ME-AN-32   Winthrop 9.4 W  0.65 8.2 56.7 ME Androscoggin  View
2/16/2017   7:00 AM   ME-WS-31   Eastport 1.4 ESE  1.08 9.2 48.5 ME Washington  View
2/16/2017   7:00 AM   ME-CM-98   Sebago 2.4 ESE  1.48 16.5 46.0 ME Cumberland  View
2/16/2017   7:00 AM   ME-FR-4   New Sharon 2.0 NW  0.56 6.2 46.0 ME Franklin

 

2/16/2017   7:00 AM   NH-CS-10   Randolph 1.4 NE  0.68 8.6 52.0 NH Coos  View
2/16/2017   7:00 AM   NH-CR-11   North Conway 1.4 SSW  0.89 9.2 44.0 NH Carroll  View
2/16/2017   7:00 AM   NH-CR-9   Madison 1.7 SE  0.75 9.4 40.0 NH Carroll  View
2/16/2017   7:00 AM   NH-CS-4   Pittsburg 6.1 NE  NA 10.0 40.0 NH Coos

 

/16/2017   7:45 AM   VT-ES-1   Granby 1.4 NW  0.65 11.5 43.0 VT Essex  View
2/16/2017   7:40 AM   VT-WH-9   West Halifax 0.2 SE  0.12 4.0 42.0 VT Windham  View
2/16/2017   7:00 AM   VT-CL-28   Sheffield 4.5 WNW  0.34 3.5 37.5 VT Caledonia  View
2/16/2017   7:00 AM   VT-WR-6   Ludlow 3.4 S  0.36 5.0 34.0 VT Winds
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8 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya every time somebody says how the Euro isn't what it used to be...you have a MET here come on and say how it's verification scores are still better than everything..and getting better all the time?????   

I dont care what anybody says..that model use to be great..it ain't what it used to be PERIOD!!  Scores or no scores..it isn't the stand out it once was.  

I don't know if this is real or imagined model failing. Many models seemingly performed better when their resolution was lower. Once you get close to the convective scale you can get some QPF values that are just too high. I normally use the ARW and NMM as part of a QPF blend, but I always take a fraction of the value.

On a larger scale, I think the point most mets are arguing is that the Euro is still more right than not and more right than its counterparts. It puts key features in the right place. If I had put all my eggs in the GFS basket 2 days ago, I would have had advisory snow for SFM and IZG when they landed solidly in the 12-18".

Check out the 4 panel of 15.00z model runs (06z RGEM because it didn't go back far enough), so these are valid with a 12-24 hour lead time. Then check out the WPC analysis valid at 00z Thu, right about the height of the band up here.

Model4pnl.png

Thu00z.png

I don't think any model had a real bust in major features 24 hours out.

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