ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: 18z NAMs do verbatim into the NW portion of the State. It looks like it has a couple inches for far NE CT in hills too...like Union CT...maybe even Kevin gets an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Juicer for those areas that don't deserve it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It looks like it has a couple inches for far NE CT in hills too...like Union CT...maybe even Kevin gets an inch or two. .29 in my hood vs 1.45 Scooterliscious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 That GYX map is interesting because it doesn't seem to reflect the improved Euro RGEM and NAM, which would seem to put Dendriteland into the 4-8 category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It looks like it has a couple inches for far NE CT in hills too...like Union CT...maybe even Kevin gets an inch or two. My bad. I meant to say NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Sh it even in my hood that is a solid sounding 52 TTs to boot, good snow growth, NW deform band in the making lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I do agree with pope Benedict that the H5 trend has been pretty real today on guidance. I too though want to see it go a little more before going wild with predictions. NAM was obviously the most extreme. But it won't take much more on a solution like the Euro or GEM to equal the 18z NAM. Oh it is for sure, but give me some confidence with other models is what I mean. I I certainly could see, the inverted trough deal swing down and give us at least a refresher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Interesting on the Nam precip type maps it shows rain but best guess soundings are snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Take these with a huge grain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 The pope. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Oh it is for sure, but give me some confidence with other models is what I mean. I I certainly could see, the inverted trough deal swing down and give us at least a refresher. Euro ensembles actually looked a little better to me than the OP which was surprising. So maybe the trend has a little legs. But I agree, I def won't believe anything major until we have a lot less spread in guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Most of the models have had me just missing out on the best snows by a few miles to the north and east. 18 Z 4 K has me just missing them to the south and west too. So that is something I guess. I'll try this technique: Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Just got WSW on phone. 10-14". I suppose this might still shift around some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 The NAM looks really warm to me at the surface, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Just now, MarkO said: The NAM looks really warm to me at the surface, no? Def a paste job on that run...though maybe turning more powdery in the latter stages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 1 minute ago, MarkO said: The NAM looks really warm to me at the surface, no? Why would it be cold at the surface with southerly winds? Until this storm passes E of us and wind back from the N and E its warm at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro ensembles actually looked a little better to me than the OP which was surprising. So maybe the trend has a little legs. But I agree, I def won't believe anything major until we have a lot less spread in guidance. inside 36 hours and we have no clue as to what will happen, interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Why would it be cold at the surface with southerly winds? Until this storm passes E of us and wind back from the N and E its warm at the surface. I'm seeing maps posted of snowfall even out onto the Cape. I'd think at least some rain is likely inside 128 and SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 1 minute ago, MarkO said: I'm seeing maps posted of snowfall even out onto the Cape. I'd think at least some rain is likely inside 128 and SE. Once the ULL drops in the atmosphere cools quickly on the NAM, initial rain to paste to powder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 5 minutes ago, MarkO said: I'm seeing maps posted of snowfall even out onto the Cape. I'd think at least some rain is likely inside 128 and SE. It's a 2 part storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: It's a 2 part storm. interesting run, fun to analyze , just missing a potshot drive by by Forky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: interesting run, fun to analyze , just missing a potshot drive by by Forky That's all I'm doing. Started it all with my 5h comparison GIF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 RGEM looks like a whiff south of Newburyport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 3 minutes ago, Morch Madness said: RGEM looks like a whiff south of Newburyport It came south from the 12z run though...and it does get lighter snows into the rest of E MA later on as there's a pretty clear IVT going right into the MA coast around 42 hours. I'd still favor the best to be to the north of MA, but the trend has definitely been southwest today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It came south from the 12z run though...and it does get lighter snows into the rest of E MA later on as there's a pretty clear IVT going right into the MA coast around 42 hours. I'd still favor the best to be to the north of MA, but the trend has definitely been southwest today. 12z got 1-2" into CT.. so this came even farther SW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Shift the nam 75 miles west please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Would like to see some big changes in the modeling at 00z... close enough now where small ticks don't mean much.. other than to make it a closer miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Box ain't buying any of it. Latest map shows less than an inch south of the Pike and Newburyport maxing out with 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 57 minutes ago, dendrite said: Would be funny if I get the trend I want and instead I end up with less snow while E MA racks it up with a coastal. Yes Brian, This is what is going to happen. SE NH Mass and SW Maine will jack but we will get our dependable 6-8". Take it and run. That's the trend this winter. Why change anything now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 9 minutes ago, MarkO said: Box ain't buying any of it. Latest map shows less than an inch south of the Pike and Newburyport maxing out with 3". That's exactly what they should be forecasting right now. You don't blow up your forecast based on an 18z NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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