CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 NE MA is sort of interesting. Maybe even into BOS too if that weenie conv zone gets in there..despite what QPF has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 I cant say I've ever seen such a unique 2m temp crash on a model like this. 3hr interval. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2017 Author Share Posted February 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: Most likely, but it would be nice to have the feeling of being in possession of the football. Even with the expectation of the models returning said fumble for a soul crushing TD. You would have trouble ripping it out right now at 10 psi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2017 Author Share Posted February 14, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: I cant say I've ever seen such a unique 2m temp crash on a model like this. 3hr interval. Is that the GFS? If so, it does that sometimes with radiational cooling if it senses a break in the clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Is that the GFS? If so, it does that sometimes with radiational cooling if it senses a break in the clouds. That is the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I cant say I've ever seen such a unique 2m temp crash on a model like this. 3hr interval. I think the model is going a little wild on the decoupling, and trying to show radiational cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 The Ukie looks pretty similar to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 GFS has a bias for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2017 Author Share Posted February 14, 2017 1 minute ago, dendrite said: The Ukie looks pretty similar to 00z. Looks like it ramped up qpf another shade from 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Cobb Nam bufkit RUM 17.8 GYX 13.6 PWM 12.5 CON 6.7 LEB 8.1 BTV 6.5 MPV 12.6 TOL 0.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: GFS has a bias for that. I mean...just scroll through 2m on ewall quick. More bullseyes than a shooting range. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/GFS13PA_12z/gfsloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNurse Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I think the model is going a little wild on the decoupling, and trying to show radiational cooling. My understanding (amateur) is that there is a lot of uncertainty in this storm with regard to track and QPF due to the limited data on the piece of energy shifting out of Canada. What is the time frame where we can begin to start to feel confident that the whites and western maine are definitely going to get a good whack instead of shafted?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2017 Author Share Posted February 14, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Cobb Nam bufkit RUM 17.8 PWM 12.5 CON 6.7 LEB 8.1 BTV 6.5 MPV 12.6 TOL 0.1 Its sucks LEW is not on that site for the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Looks like it ramped up qpf another shade from 0z I guess. idk...we're dealing with coarse graphics though. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_qc_12/accum/PA_000-060_0000.gif http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_qc_00/accum/PA_012-072_0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Just now, WeatherNurse said: My understanding (amateur) is that there is a lot of uncertainty in this storm with regard to track and QPF due to the limited data on the piece of energy shifting out of Canada. What is the time frame where we can begin to start to feel confident that the whites and western maine are definitely going to get a good whack instead of shafted?? Certainly not as dense a network as CONUS, but there are Canadian raobs in the vicinity of that wave. So I feel confident that we have an idea how strong this energy is. Now the cut off between western Maine and the Whites is more in doubt. Because it could be sharp on the SW side. So I feel better about ME than I do about NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Its sucks LEW is not on that site for the GFS you are half way between GYX and RUM, I am sure you get the drift, the GFS is 8.8 at RUM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNurse Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Now the cut off between western Maine and the Whites is more in doubt. Because it could be sharp on the SW side. So I feel better about ME than I do about NH. No worries, I have a Sunday River pass, too But I DO like it when my hometown gets the goods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 13 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: Most likely, but it would be nice to have the feeling of being in possession of the football. Even with the expectation of the models returning said fumble for a soul crushing TD. True. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2017 Author Share Posted February 14, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: you are half way between GYX and RUM, I am sure you get the drift, the GFS is 8.8 at RUM I usually look at GYX and AUG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 I'd probably draw a line from SFM to wxnurse for the best snows right now. If we can get the convergence zone a little more south and hook everything more to the W than NW maybe we can get DAW to LCI in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNurse Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 1 minute ago, dendrite said: I'd probably draw a line from SFM to wxnurse for the best snows right now. Your lips to Mother Nature's ear, dendrite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 1 minute ago, dendrite said: I'd probably draw a line from SFM to wxnurse for the best snows right now. If we can get the convergence zone a little more south and hook everything more to the W than NW maybe we can get DAW to LCI in the game. I support this statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 We are about a tick or two away from a CCB impact from the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Maybe a leap and a jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I support this statement. I'm cool with it too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 8 minutes ago, WeatherNurse said: No worries, I have a Sunday River pass, too But I DO like it when my hometown gets the goods Single, beautiful, lives in Ski country , has multiple passes to ski areas. Where were you 35 years ago? Lol just kidding. Just a fantastic ski year enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Maybe a leap and a jump. Those are some big ticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 6 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: We are about a tick or two away from a CCB impact from the coastal. several large ticks on most guidance. probably 1-2 ticks on the 3km NAM but that's an outlier at the moment. There isn't much time left at all for us to cash in unless you start under the assumption the 3km NAM is correct, and continues to adjust SWward. good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNurse Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Single, beautiful, lives in Ski country , has multiple passes to ski areas. I know, I can't believe the single part either. Part of the problem is most of the men around here are functional alcoholics with questionable employment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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