40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Models have been a slight tick NE since 00z...not good for here when I was already on the gradient. It'll probably be a nowcast deal. Extremely predictable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 12 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: You'll see small tweaks sometimes during the off hours, but they won't make any wholesale changes...those come with the main forecast updates either afternoon or overnight hours. For the record, we should be more prone to wholesale changes during intermediate updates in this new enhanced short term paradigm. But alas, most people just sit on headlines/forecasts until the main packages. I know GYX treats swing shifts more like a babysitter, and just ferries the forecast to the midnight shift. Other offices will actually use it to change the forecast (I mean you do get 18z runs, early 00z runs, and meso models). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Split off thread for obs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Almost every model has the LL convergence zone swinging down across E MA later in this event...so I would absolutely keep an eye on this as there could be a few hour period of fairly intense snow. This part of a norlun is generally going to be handled pretty poorly by models...so don't obsess over qpf outputs and think there will be basically nothing or just light snows. That might happen, but I think there is a real threat for something a little more impactful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNurse Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Made it to the top of the quad at wildcat and then got the call for early release and had to head home to receive the kiddo off the bus. 4" now, still 1"/hr fluff!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 3 minutes ago, WeatherNurse said: Made it to the top of the quad at wildcat and then got the call for early release and had to head home to receive the kiddo off the bus. 4" now, still 1"/hr fluff!!! Crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Almost every model has the LL convergence zone swinging down across E MA later in this event...so I would absolutely keep an eye on this as there could be a few hour period of fairly intense snow. This part of a norlun is generally going to be handled pretty poorly by models...so don't obsess over qpf outputs and think there will be basically nothing or just light snows. That might happen, but I think there is a real threat for something a little more impactful. yea I didn't see a NE tick on mesos at all in fact the Mesos are better in NE Mass at 12 Z versus 6Z with qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Time to go out on a limb, heads up NE Mass Boston tonight 2-4 Boston 4-8 NE Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Almost every model has the LL convergence zone swinging down across E MA later in this event...so I would absolutely keep an eye on this as there could be a few hour period of fairly intense snow. This part of a norlun is generally going to be handled pretty poorly by models...so don't obsess over qpf outputs and think there will be basically nothing or just light snows. That might happen, but I think there is a real threat for something a little more impactful. Yeah, was not the highest confidence forecast for BOS. Definitely conveyed the uncertainty, that swing down of the trough..and the point where the low level convergence develops overnight is a tough call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Almost every model has the LL convergence zone swinging down across E MA later in this event...so I would absolutely keep an eye on this as there could be a few hour period of fairly intense snow. This part of a norlun is generally going to be handled pretty poorly by models...so don't obsess over qpf outputs and think there will be basically nothing or just light snows. That might happen, but I think there is a real threat for something a little more impactful. Good advice. However, the next NORLUN that really dumps on my location will be the first in 19 winters here (and 13 in Gardiner.) Most do their damage farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 GFS is a crush job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 4-6" in EEN would be cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 41 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Almost every model has the LL convergence zone swinging down across E MA later in this event...so I would absolutely keep an eye on this as there could be a few hour period of fairly intense snow. This part of a norlun is generally going to be handled pretty poorly by models...so don't obsess over qpf outputs and think there will be basically nothing or just light snows. That might happen, but I think there is a real threat for something a little more impactful. How much is this a norlun versus a meso-low? I'm seeing a well defined SLP at ~985 mb right off the coast of NH/MA border on the 12z rgem. The signal --in my eyes-- is more of a meso low type impact, which is why we should expect more significant and especially broad impacts relative to a norlun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: How much is this a norlun versus a meso-low? I'm seeing a well defined SLP at ~985 mb right off the coast of NH/MA border on the 12z rgem. The signal --in my eyes-- is more of a meso low type impact, which is why we should expect more significant and especially broad impacts relative to a norlun. Oceanwx mentioned that there was more of a look of a widespread snowfall up here vs. a narrow norlun-only. I can' get over how much fog there is right now...and sort of mist. Brian isn't seeing that in CON but it is very unusual to me, just before a snowstorm starts. I guess we are getting strong inflow from the s and se? I have to think it bodes well once the lift arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 8 minutes ago, jbenedet said: How much is this a norlun versus a meso-low? I'm seeing a well defined SLP at ~985 mb right off the coast of NH/MA border. The signal --in my eyes-- is more of a meso low type impact, which is why we should expect more significant and especially broad impacts relative to a norlun. 4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Oceanwx mentioned that there was more of a look of a widespread snowfall up here vs. a narrow norlun-only. I can' get over how much fog there is right now...and sort of mist. Brian isn't seeing that in CON but it is very unusual to me, just before a snowstorm starts. I guess we are getting strong inflow from the s and se? I have to think it bodes well once the lift arrives. This is definitely more of a hybrid. A NORLUN trough has pretty specific criteria. This is definitely embedded in a broad synoptic scale lift environment, but the inverted trough will focus a band of heavier snow in there. A NORLUN has a duration requirement, and I'm not entirely sure that this will remain stationary for that long, but it will be close. The other criteria are all check marks though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: This is definitely more of a hybrid. A NORLUN trough has pretty specific criteria. This is definitely embedded in a broad synoptic scale lift environment, but the inverted trough will focus a band of heavier snow in there. A NORLUN has a duration requirement, and I'm not entirely sure that this will remain stationary for that long, but it will be close. The other criteria are all check marks though. Noticed two separate shortwaves in the flow, don't know the impacts but animate the WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 I would probably also like to see boundary layer winds more aligned with 850 mb winds. A little too much S at 850 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Noticed two separate shortwaves in the flow, don't know the impacts but animate the WV Yeah, you have the northern streamer in Ontario, but that strong kicker diving through OH and phasing with the southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 2 hours ago, dryslot said: Like the one a few years back for here when we were under a WSW and ended up receiving 0".................... Was on the phone with Keith Carson talking about that yesterday. He also was bullish for PWM, and I think we didn't even get a flake. But if I'm remembering correctly, Isles of Shoals got crushed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Nice squalls in NW CT and Berks now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2017 Author Share Posted February 15, 2017 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Was on the phone with Keith Carson talking about that yesterday. He also was bullish for PWM, and I think we didn't even get a flake. But if I'm remembering correctly, Isles of Shoals got crushed... I watched his FB livecast yesterday and he had mentioned he spoke with you guys, Kept waiting for the radar to blossom on that event and it just never happened, But that's the fickle nature of these right up until they actually appear, You have a general idea where these are favored but that still is no guarantee that it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Yeah, you have the northern streamer in Ontario, but that strong kicker diving through OH and phasing with the southern stream. Seems on course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Bulls eye keeps sliding west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Time to go out on a limb, heads up NE Mass Boston tonight 2-4 Boston 4-8 NE Mass HRRR seems to agree, interesting night for the eMA peeps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2017 Author Share Posted February 15, 2017 1 minute ago, Lava Rock said: Bulls eye keeps sliding west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: HRRR seems to agree, interesting night for the eMA peeps meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 1 minute ago, Lava Rock said: Bulls eye keeps sliding west. ? If anything I moved it east a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Lava Rock with the pre-game jitters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Just now, MaineJayhawk said: Lava Rock with the pre-game jitters with near 40 oTG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Just now, MaineJayhawk said: Lava Rock with the pre-game jitters Not a good year. Need 45" OTG, not 35" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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