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Coop Crushing Snow 02/15/17


dryslot

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Currently snowing a lot heavier (on Franktown radar) in Ottawa-Kingston region of eastern ON than closer to low (which is northeast of Sudbury ON), I don't see that moisture on 12h RGEM now coming out, would suggest possible heavier snowfalls across VT-NH tomorrow during early stages of event. The southern energy phases with that around western NS but net effect will probably be mostly an orographic pattern with a general 1-3 inch foundation and local maxima of 6-10 inches on east slopes of ranges. A general 4-8 (10-20 cm) snowfall for Atlantic Canada to complicate matters there. 

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Just now, WeatherNurse said:

graphics? GYX not reflecting a shift yet.  Everyone seems gun shy.  I'll go with my usual 16" prediction and see how wrong I am Thursday am.  

GYX won't make any updates until the overnight package...usually updated around 4am.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

GYX won't make any updates until the overnight package...usually updated around 4am.

Yeah...you want other models on board besides the NAM and RGEM although this is technically something the mesos should do a better job at resolving (assuming they have the synoptics somewhat in check at this time range).

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1 minute ago, WeatherNurse said:

Oh - huh - usually the graphics update with the models and often there is a 22-2300 update when weather is coming.

You'll see small tweaks sometimes during the off hours, but they won't make any wholesale changes...those come with the main forecast updates either afternoon or overnight hours.

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1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

So hard to pinpoint these inverted troughs though.   Fickle finger of fate

This one is gonna be fairly wide...at least initially. There's some good synoptic support for a lot of lift. I think the it will narrow with time though as it sinks south...that's when MA may get a shot outside of the initial burst that may be too warm for snow anyway (though ORH hills may see a burst of wet snow out of this part)

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2 hours ago, Hoth said:

Interesting how the last several years have had these periods of hyper activity. Kind of transferring slowly up the coast. Started with Snowmaggedon in '09-'10 in the MA, '10-'11 for SNE, '14-'15 eastern MA, '16-'17 NH/ME. 

Agreed, 13-14 had a respectable burst of activity for most of sne too...back to back steroidal swfe in feb

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One thing is for sure - the timing of this storm is really going to make it tough to call school tomorrow.  They called off school on Sunday for Monday when it would have actually been fine to send the kids.  Last week, they went to school on Thursday and the Superintendent made the front page of the paper for keeping the kids in all day when we got a surprise 8" we weren't forecasted for.  

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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You could just respond to me directly lol. We know things are always peachy with you, a gust of wind shaking your branches out back excites you. Sorry, I appreciate what I get but experiencing a late jan to feb 15 type stretch as you did would satisfy me for the rest of my life so much so, I too would get excited with leaves blowing around my yard. 

I have mentioned the same sentiments so many times but I constantly find myself receiving the same treatment of that poor woman in the infamous short story by Shirley Jackson

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