dendrite Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Models have been a slight tick NE since 00z...not good for here when I was already on the gradient. It'll probably be a nowcast deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Yeah Nam says BOS gets 2-4" tonight. Enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 On 2/15/2017 at 2:14 PM, dendrite said: Models have been a slight tick NE since 00z...not good for here when I was already on the gradient. It'll probably be a nowcast deal. Expand exactly, which is why I don't trust it at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Should be interesting when i return to LWM from work around 7pm. I like Will going reverse Psychology over NE mass with this one. Euro Fatigue ? Last storm Euro trended Progressive within last 36 hrs, i dont see this as apples to apples Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2017 Author Share Posted February 15, 2017 Going to end up being a nowcast the where this actually sets up 20 miles east or west with that trough will be a huge difference in snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 On 2/15/2017 at 2:17 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Should be interesting when i return to LWM from work around 7pm. I like Will going reverse Psychology over NE mass with this one. Euro Fatigue ? Last storm Euro trended Progressive within last 36 hrs, i dont see this as apples to apples Expand This is mesoscale meteorology too. The synoptics drive the low level inv trough...but I mean 5 miles may mean flurries or 5". Seriously. I usually hedge more northeast with these things as models can be too far southwest with these troughs..but have to keep an eye out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 On 2/15/2017 at 2:17 PM, mahk_webstah said: exactly, which is why I don't trust it at all. Expand I don't think it's a matter of trust. There is going to be a large gradient somewhere. I pulled off 14" out of 12/20/07 and it dropped off quickly to the SW. I couldn't tell you off hand how that was modeled 24hrs before...maybe Will can. The important thing is to keep your expectations in check and realize the nature of the beast. The uncertainty means it could be anywhere from 2" to 12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Looks like im heading to the cat Friday and or Saturday. Fun times Im anticipating flurries in LWM and a band nearby. Thats why they play the games Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 On 2/15/2017 at 2:14 PM, dendrite said: Models have been a slight tick NE since 00z...not good for here when I was already on the gradient. It'll probably be a nowcast deal. Expand On 2/15/2017 at 2:23 PM, dendrite said: I don't think it's a matter of trust. There is going to be a large gradient somewhere. I pulled off 14" out of 12/20/07 and it dropped off quickly to the SW. I couldn't tell you off hand how that was modeled 24hrs before...maybe Will can. The important thing is to keep your expectations in check and realize the nature of the beast. The uncertainty means it could be anywhere from 2" to 12". Expand Euro has been too far sw a lot, and NAM has us on the gradient. My forecast for us here is 2-4. I am jaded but also looking at what has happened this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2017 Author Share Posted February 15, 2017 Like the one a few years back for here when we were under a WSW and ended up receiving 0".................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 On 2/15/2017 at 2:26 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Looks like im heading to the cat Friday and or Saturday. Fun times Expand Hey TB and I will be at the Cat Friday it seems, firming up plans now. you have my number ,FYI its dumping there already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Not sure I'd go more than like an inch or two west of a Derry, NH - LWM line. I think we're out of the game. I see some more widespread 3-6'' forecasts out there and I don't see it happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 On 2/15/2017 at 2:29 PM, Ginx snewx said: Hey TB and I will be at the Cat Friday it seems, firming up plans now. you have my number ,FYI its dumping there already Expand This is getting creepy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 On 2/15/2017 at 2:32 PM, Damage In Tolland said: This is getting creepy Expand your phobia is awkward. So psyched to play in feet and feet of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 On 2/15/2017 at 2:29 PM, Ginx snewx said: Hey TB and I will be at the Cat Friday it seems, firming up plans now. you have my number ,FYI its dumping there already Expand Pm the numba ginxy BTV WRF has a 980 LP sitting next to PVC at 4am with nice snow over mi casa. The gradient on that model is comical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 3km NAM is more SW of its 4km/12km siblings. It'll be interesting to see how the higher res version compares for a meso event come verification time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 On 2/15/2017 at 2:35 PM, dendrite said: 3km NAM is more SW of its 4km/12km siblings. It'll be interesting to see how the higher res version compares for a meso event come verification time. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 On 2/15/2017 at 2:35 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Pm the numba ginxy BTV WRF has a 980 LP sitting next to PVC at 4am with nice snow over mi casa. The gradient on that model is comical Expand done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 On 2/15/2017 at 2:27 PM, dryslot said: Like the one a few years back for here when we were under a WSW and ended up receiving 0".................... Expand The NE tic is encouraging, as the Farmington forecast for at least-most likely-highest went from 8/17/21 yesterday afternoon to 1/8/13 this morning. Kind of reminds me of 3/12 2005 when an extended IVT was progged to give my area 18-24" less than 24 hr before first flakes. Got 5.5" as the jack moved south, and nobody reached 18" though some spots west of Sebago that topped 15. And then dendrite posts that NAM that drops my qpf to about 0.2". So much for the 50" pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 On 2/15/2017 at 2:17 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Should be interesting when i return to LWM from work around 7pm. I like Will going reverse Psychology over NE mass with this one. Euro Fatigue ? Last storm Euro trended Progressive within last 36 hrs, i dont see this as apples to apples Expand We will be right on the knife edge, but probably the wrong side of it. I suspect Boxford on east gets the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 On 2/15/2017 at 2:35 PM, dendrite said: 3km NAM is more SW of its 4km/12km siblings. It'll be interesting to see how the higher res version compares for a meso event come verification time. Expand You may need to go see your friend at the Bates Motel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2017 Author Share Posted February 15, 2017 On 2/15/2017 at 2:46 PM, tamarack said: The NE tic is encouraging, as the Farmington forecast for at least-most likely-highest went from 8/17/21 yesterday afternoon to 1/8/13 this morning. Kind of reminds me of 3/12 2005 when an extended IVT was progged to give my area 18-24" less than 24 hr before first flakes. Got 5.5" as the jack moved south, and nobody reached 18" though some spots west of Sebago that topped 15. And then dendrite posts that NAM that drops my qpf to about 0.2". So much for the 50" pack. Expand Might as well throw darts at a dart board, I'm just going to watch the SPC meso page and watch where the area of convergence sets up, We will all be wiser then.......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 RGEM kind of looks SW of 6z on the ptype stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 On 2/15/2017 at 2:26 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Looks like im heading to the cat Friday and or Saturday. Fun times Im anticipating flurries in LWM and a band nearby. Thats why they play the games Expand Probably hitting black mountain on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 My buddy in Montreal said they got 4" in 90 minutes of whiteout at rush hour and the city is f'cked. I also see Eyewall on social media in a whiteout somewhere probably Champlain Valley. These lapse rates mean business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 12z Reggie rips a stripe of 1-2" across CT this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Looking like another 6+" to add to the pile. *waves the white flag* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 watch this pull a 12/20/07 and paralyze Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 On 2/15/2017 at 3:19 PM, Damage In Tolland said: 12z Reggie rips a stripe of 1-2" across CT this evening Expand Yea Western and central CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 Little refresher for the newbies, also this is happening in the climo favored area in SW Maine http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/2011/01/exactly-what-is-a-norlun-trough-and-how-do-you-forecast-weather-associated-with-it.html?platform=hootsuite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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