monsoonman1 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 SPC already issued an Enhanced risk for severe weather February 14th for much of southeast TX. Any discrete supercells will have a threat of tornadoes in this environment. Mitigating factors to tornado longevity may be some weakness in wind fields around 700 mb especially in southern areas, and potential for numerous storm interactions. However, a strong tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 This one came out of nowhere, tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 21 minutes ago, Chargers09 said: This one came out of nowhere, tbh. Its been on forecasters radars for a few days now. The extent of the severe weather risk depends on how far north the surface low tracks. A more northerly track allows more of Southeast Texas to get in on surface-based convection. That solution seems more likely now, hence the increased risk of SVR and the northward extension of the probs. Those further north will be dealing with elevated storms with a risk of hail and spotty damaging wind gusts. We'll have to see exactly how much of a TOR risk develops tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, David Reimer said: Its been on forecasters radars for a few days now. The extent of the severe weather risk depends on how far north the surface low tracks. A more northerly track allows more of Southeast Texas to get in on surface-based convection. That solution seems more likely now, hence the increased risk of SVR and the northward extension of the probs. Those further north will be dealing with elevated storms with a risk of hail and spotty damaging wind gusts. We'll have to see exactly how much of a TOR risk develops tomorrow. Makes sense to me. I'm on the far East side of the SA metro area. This is my first potential severe event since moving down here back in June of last year and I'm looking forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 Models have a variety of SRH forecasts for that ENH area. A limited area of Texas could see SRH values of 100-400 m2/s2 in the unstable sector. Effective shear should be 40-50 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 14, 2017 Share Posted February 14, 2017 Houston and Lake Charles AFD's highlighting shear, helicity, and concern for tornadoes on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted February 14, 2017 Author Share Posted February 14, 2017 Big line of storms coming into the Houston metro. Spotter reported a brief tornado southwest of Rosenberg, TX a few minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted February 14, 2017 Author Share Posted February 14, 2017 Possible TDS west of Sweeny, TX. Google Maps shows a big oil refinery in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted February 14, 2017 Author Share Posted February 14, 2017 NWS Houston will be out surveying this afternoon. Sounds like there were a few tornadoes from El Campo area towards the Houston metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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