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2/12 Storm Observations


NJwx85

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48 minutes ago, mimillman said:

This was never really going to amount to much for the metro and points south. I'm surprised temps in the city remained low enough for a very light ice accumulation, which of course was quickly melted away by a cold rain.

North of White Plains and north shore of Long Island is the place to be this winter for above average snowfalls. We can't complain as we're around average, though the hype leading up these types of events in the future should be less forum-wide and more specific to locations. Orange and Ulster counties for example have had a very different experience the past two events, as forecasted, yet some folks somehow translate that to a comparable event in the immediate metro area.

That simply hasn't been the case.

My 2.8" was pretty decent. 

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1 hour ago, mimillman said:

This was never really going to amount to much for the metro and points south. I'm surprised temps in the city remained low enough for a very light ice accumulation, which of course was quickly melted away by a cold rain.

North of White Plains and north shore of Long Island is the place to be this winter for above average snowfalls. We can't complain as we're around average, though the hype leading up these types of events in the future should be less forum-wide and more specific to locations. Orange and Ulster counties for example have had a very different experience the past two events, as forecasted, yet some folks somehow translate that to a comparable event in the immediate metro area.

That simply hasn't been the case.

I don't know man, here on the South Shore I've had 24" divided in between three events.  This doesn't even include any of the minor 1-2" events.  Besides the warm temps, we don't have much to complain about this winter.  Two events with between 8-12 inches of snow and one event with 3-4 inches of snow this season.

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1 hour ago, mimillman said:

This was never really going to amount to much for the metro and points south. I'm surprised temps in the city remained low enough for a very light ice accumulation, which of course was quickly melted away by a cold rain.

North of White Plains and north shore of Long Island is the place to be this winter for above average snowfalls. We can't complain as we're around average, though the hype leading up these types of events in the future should be less forum-wide and more specific to locations. Orange and Ulster counties for example have had a very different experience the past two events, as forecasted, yet some folks somehow translate that to a comparable event in the immediate metro area.

That simply hasn't been the case.

I don't quite understand what you wrote here.. 

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16 minutes ago, Paragon said:

I don't know man, here on the South Shore I've had 24" divided in between three events.  This doesn't even include any of the minor 1-2" events.  Besides the warm temps, we don't have much to complain about this winter.  Two events with between 8-12 inches of snow and one event with 3-4 inches of snow this season.

Read what I said again. I clearly wrote, "as we're around average, we can't complain."

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Just now, mimillman said:

Read what I said again. I clearly wrote, "as we're around average, we can't complain."

Yeah I guess I mean that 24" is around average for the entire season for us, so we're actually out ahead for this point in time, and have plenty of time to get to 30" or above.

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Just now, mimillman said:

Events have generally overperformed up by you guys. That's all it means. Lattitude matters a lot this winter.

Ah ok... I agree its been a solid winter up here but most north of I-78 are atleast on par for a average to above average winter snowfall wise. Our LI guys here are having a pretty good winter as well especially those on the north shore

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Just now, mimillman said:

Yea I agree with that. East and north have done well, especially the north shore of Long Island. When you combine north and east, you get central CT, RI, and eastern Mass/Maine who are having a great Jan/Feb. luck of the draw this go around.

It kind of reminds me of a mish-mash of some other winters, it's a combo of a southeast ridge that's too strong and miller B's that blossom a bit later and favor areas that are closer to the storm's track, so north and east.  Some areas end up in the screw zone between southwest flow systems that favor areas further north and miller B's that favor areas further east.

 

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2 minutes ago, Paragon said:

It kind of reminds me of a mish-mash of some other winters, it's a combo of a southeast ridge that's too strong and miller B's that blossom a bit later and favor areas that are closer to the storm's track, so north and east.  Some areas end up in the screw zone between southwest flow systems that favor areas further north and miller B's that favor areas further east.

 

Philadelphia and central Jersey have gotten shafted, the former moreso. This winter has exceeded my expectations for our parts given temperature anomalies and I do think we have the possibility of at least one other event in early March, if not this coming Thursday.

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11 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Events have generally overperformed up by you guys. That's all it means. Lattitude matters a lot this winter.

I would argue that events down here have overperformed. 6-10 was forecasted 2 days before Niko then we got 12-16 island wide. 

The last event we ended up with 9.4 inches when it originally looked like 3-6. 

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5 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Philadelphia and central Jersey have gotten shafted, the former moreso. This winter has exceeded my expectations for our parts given temperature anomalies and I do think we have the possibility of at least one other event in early March, if not this coming Thursday.

Yeah I feel bad for them, this last storm was supposed to be better for Philly than the 2" they actually got.  Did you see how astonishingly low the snowfall totals have been for Allentown?  Allentown is at my latitude (about the same as the south shore of LI and JFK) and they only had 3 inches of snow going into the last storm, which gave them 7 inches.  Check out the discrepancy between Allentown and JFK, both of which are at the same latitude.

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1 minute ago, psv88 said:

I would argue that events down here have overperformed. 6-10 was forecasted 2 days before Niko then we got 12-16 island wide. 

The last event we ended up with 9.4 inches when it originally looked like 3-6. 

Wasn't 9.4 the NYC total?  We had 11 inches here.

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4 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

We have that area of précis out in western NY and Pa. That could swing thru in a few hours. Light freezing drizzle here now. 

Yea I went outside to let dogs out and couldn't believe how steady it was coming down.. probably another 1/4 to half inch and still snowing...won't add to my totals tho...since the freezing rain/sleet compacted my board reading down to 5.5... u less I pick up another inch of course :)

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7 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

We reached the high for the day of 36 at 6:30 this evening.  A half hour later at 7PM it is down to 33 and drizzling.  Watch for ice reforming out there if it drops a little more.

Last few hours have been ugly, snowpack eating fog and light rain.  34f.  Hopefully we stop the melting soon. 

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3 minutes ago, Snowshack said:

Last few hours have been ugly, snowpack eating fog and light rain.  34f.  Hopefully we stop the melting soon. 

This mornings slush is still otg in areas where I had cleared snow for my dog. If that hasnt melted yet, your snowpack is fine...once it freezes up it will be like a glacier. Also hit 36 at 6:29 pm and 33.7 now. 

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