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February 12/13 SWFE/Coastal Observations


Baroclinic Zone

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2 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

meh for sure, missed the forecast range by several inches.  Getting 8" on a forecast for 4" is way better vs. 8" on a forecast of 12-18"

Well and there's the weenie problem. Focusing on the high of the range. Because a forecast of 8" and getting 4" or 12" is the same relative miss (though everyone would take the high bust versus low).

Our SOO and I were just having a discussion about snowfall forecasting, and I would be curious to see what some other mets would say, but when forecasting snowfall you should always be at least a little concerned you are too low on amounts. Otherwise, you have a high bias. And that's really not a good thing to have.

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27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Even if it's less then predicted, a 20" here, 15" there, 16+ here....the interior has some of the biggest snow puss1es I've ever seen.

One thing to note is that taking the under on the bigger forecasts and modeling has really worked well for expectations.    If BOX forecasts 12-18" and I forecast 8-12" and get 10", then I feel like a 5x SB champ

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2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

One thing to note is that taking the under on the bigger forecasts and modeling has really worked well for expectations.    If BOX forecasts 12-18" and I forecast 8-12" and get 10", then I feel like a 5x SB champ

What about in Jan 2015 when OKX went 24-30 for all of NNJ, I went 8-16, and they got 2-4... is that squeaking into the playoffs and getting blown out in the divisional round?

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Just now, OSUmetstud said:

Forky and i were discussing the bias of euro overamplification.  Seems to be pretty pervasive lately...even within the short range.  Any thoughts?

This storm is no slouch, but the Euro did have it at least 10 mb deeper at this time (based off the 12z run yesterday).

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2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

WSW should not have been dropped for rockland and strafford counties in NH this morning. We've been in that sw section of the westernmost band all day.

Western part of Rockingham and Strafford really haven't been in it like the eastern part of the counties. I probably could've kept coastal Rockingham in, but it was a tough call. Needed to do something with them by 10 AM because they were expiring anyway. Opted for wind advisories with blowing/drifting impacts instead.

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