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February 12/13 SWFE/Coastal Observations


Baroclinic Zone

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51 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

That worked! Thanks! Reported 14.5". Still going strong.  This is great! I'm never the money shot! Going to bed now for first tracks tomorrow!  Will be interested to see what the marketing departments call this.  I measured with a tape measure.  Surely they will inflate.  Check Attitash, wildcat and Sunday River. Hopefully another 6" at least overnight! Offspring is on shoveling for am :)

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http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CAR&issuedby=CAR&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
105 am update...
Coastal low is approx 70 miles east of Cape Cod and undergoing
intense cyclogenesis. 00z NAM has the best handle on feature and
expect this to deepen another ~15mb thru 12z this mrng. At the
same time it wl be captured by the negatively tilted and deepening
upr lvl trof and this wl cause it to be swept north into the Gulf
of Maine bfr daybreak this mrng.

Expect that lgt-moderate snow wl continue acrs the entire CWA
thru 09z before heavy snow in mesoscale band develops along the
Downeast coast aft this time. This wl result in vry heavy snow
with vsbys down blo 1/4 mile at times, and coupled with the wind
that wl strengthen in response to bombogenesis, blizzard conds wl
exist thru a good part of the day. No chgs needed with this
update.

Previous Discussion...
***A major winter setting up across the region with Blizzard
 conditions expected across the downeast region***

18Z sfc analysis showed secondary low pres starting to form near
the New Jersey coast w/the primary low over the eastern Great
Lakes weakening. This secondary low is forecast to bomb out(965mb)
as it moves into the Gulf of Maine overnight through Monday. The
low is then expected to pass s of Nova Scotia by Monday evening.
This is a large storm and will have effects on the entire CWA.
This is a High Impact event w/strong winds with gusts of 40 to 55
mph can be expected from northern maine to the coast respectively.
Whiteouts w/near Blizzard conditions expected. Blizzard Warnings
remain in place for the Downeast region into Monday. NNE winds
gusting to nAer 40 mph and potential periods of heavy snowfall
will lead to very hazardous conditions. Thought about adding the
southern Piscataquis County region into the Blizzard Warning but
after further assessment and GYX`S point of the intensifying
further e, decided to keep the main headlines as is for this
region. The decision was made to upgrade NE Aroostook County to a
Winter Storm Warning w/the rest of the Central Highlands and SE
Aroostook County for impact.

SPC`s latest meso-scale discussion references snowfall rates up
to 2 inch/hr tonight across the downeast region for up to a 6 hr
period due to deformation banding. This will lead to rapid
snowfall accumulations. This deformation banding is forecast to
lift to the ne on Monday and expand to the ne side of the CWA
Monday afternoon as the low intensifies. The latest 12z run of the
ECMWF/GFS and NAM point to this potential. As the low exits to the
e Monday evening, the snow will start winding down from w to e.
Winds turning to the n Monday will lead to continuing blowing and
drifting snow right into Monday night. We are still looking for
snowfall amounts of 18-24 inches across the central and downeast
and then a sharp cutoff as one travels n an w. Attm, kept Northern
Maine at 5 to 10 inches n and w of a Mars Hill to Chamberlain Lake
line. As a matter of fact, NW Maine including the St. John Valley
will be on the nrn fringe of this event seeing lower snowfall
amounts.

This needs to be stressed again that winds will be the main issue
with snowfall being of a high ratio(fluffy), whiteouts are
expected!

 

CONGRATS. ENJOY

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