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February 12/13 SWFE/Coastal Observations


Baroclinic Zone

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Models last night had the H5 dryslot making it up to about this latitude...so I don't think it's a model bust. I do think flags should've been up for the overnight period for those under it. Basically you're getting your snow in bursts with crappier growth. The snow should pick back up again sometime after midnight.

Yeah I do think we fill in a bit for a little while atleast, the 0z NAM has like another 0.4-0.5" qpf for eastern/southeastern NH after 03z (which still may be overdone) ... but the flags were there for the widespread 12+ totals, as you and others have pointed out over the past day or so 

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Of course it's going to suck where 2m temps are progged warm. But it lew chunks up here with a cold column, crappy lift, and dry air aloft. It's a general point anyway...not just this storm. Those were called clown maps for years for a reason.

Would be nice if we could get a Cobb11 map instead.  

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Stuff keeps regenerating near or just S of pike and moving east...it's adding up even if it's not spectacular like Thursday was.

Gotta have 3-4" since 430-5pm. About 7" total. This is winter hill.

Those bands keep moving into the sw suburbs of Boston, helping to keep it all snow here, at least so far.

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I would be mildly optimistic about the storm coming together at the last minute, when the coastal starts to pull in the low currently over n.e. NY state around 06z, heights will be falling very rapidly and there may be another tuck effect near the trough that would otherwise be linear from the coastal to the dying land center (at that point near Springfield MA). This might allow coastal convergence bands to push further south than BOS for a while. It would also reduce temps enough to guarantee no further mixing and all snow. I agree that the systems look a little anemic right now, but the development phase is 03z-09z and that's where all the coastal banding action should become intense. Okay, now go out on the field and have a good second half (that works, right?). 

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3 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

I would be mildly optimistic about the storm coming together at the last minute, when the coastal starts to pull in the low currently over n.e. NY state around 06z, heights will be falling very rapidly and there may be another tuck effect near the trough that would otherwise be linear from the coastal to the dying land center (at that point near Springfield MA). This might allow coastal convergence bands to push further south than BOS for a while. It would also reduce temps enough to guarantee no further mixing and all snow. I agree that the systems look a little anemic right now, but the development phase is 03z-09z and that's where all the coastal banding action should become intense. Okay, now go out on the field and have a good second half (that works, right?). 

That seems to be what TWC is banking on happening.  Probably AccuWeather too

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3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

That seems to be what TWC is banking on happening.  Probably AccuWeather too

Is this honestly likely, it's clearing up in Windham ME now, GYX is holding fast at 18-24" right now it's.... not looking very good

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