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February 12/13 SWFE/Coastal Observations


Baroclinic Zone

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Basically the meso models have a consensus on the CCB exploding over E MA, maturing for a few hours then exiting tantalizingly close to the coast.

They do hang back moderate to heavy stuff but not the meat of it.

I'd keep track of the meso analysis page overnight for the pressure falls and track. We need this to mature earlier than currently modeled. 

It's not out of the realm of possibilities. A very small step north and west... Big time totals for much of E MA. 

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I've been doing some work with ArcMap today on wet snow loading. I don't see any harm in posting one image from one model run just for comments and possibly even some feedback. Locations in the map that I attached that are expected to receive 0.5 inches (contoured) of 'Wet SWE' are at risk of losing power. Other models are fairly similar in terms of magnitude and locations of heavy snow loading. All credit goes to LSC for allowing me to use their programs to derive this image! 

SWE.jpg

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5" here so far with moderate snow.  I threw my freaking back out shoveling Fri night.  I was just outside measuring a few minutes ago and it spasmed so bad that i got stuck outside.  My daughter helped me get inside.  Couldn't even get my boots off lol.  Guess I'll be enjoying this one from inside.  My snow guy at my store didn't come back a second time after the last storm so i had to scraped up 2" of icy slop and then shovel it.  Ouch.  

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Mesoscale Discussion 0172

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0151 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

Areas affected...Portions of eastern NY...VT...NH...MA...Maine

Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 121951Z - 130015Z SUMMARY

...Areas of heavy snow with rates of 1.0-1.5 inches per hour will continue spreading east-northeastward across portions of eastern New York and New England through the remainder of the afternoon and into the early evening hours.

DISCUSSION...A broad shield of precipitation being enhanced by elevated warm advection and frontogenesis, well in advance of an amplifying midlevel shortwave trough crossing the Great Lakes region, is spreading east-northeastward across parts of the Northeast. Related ascent extends through sufficiently deep dendritic growth zones for heavy snow, with heavy snow presently being reported across portions of eastern NY and southern New England. The zone of isentropic ascent and related areas of heavy snow will continue to spread east-northeastward across the region, with 1.0-1.5-inch/hour snow rates anticipated.

Linear extrapolation and the latest short-range high-resolution model guidance suggest that the leading edge of heavier snow should enter parts of western/southern Maine around 21Z, with this activity continuing to spread east-northeastward into the early evening hours.

Meanwhile, midlevel dry air should continue impinging on the southern extent of the precipitation shield. This will result in lessening intensity/coverage of snow across parts of east-central NY and adjacent southern New England through the early evening, while heavy-snow potential continues farther north/northeast.

WARN_RAD_STATENYN (2).gif

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I'm no expert at nowcasting pressure drops etc but its looks south of guidance. Though it can be hard to tell from meso analysis vs the little L on models but the mid level isobars do look a little south of forecast? 

It's too early to tell on the mid levels. Believe it or not I think intensity of that surface low and its track is more important right now.

Obviously we hone in on the mid levels as most important for a CCB.

But when the 7h starts stacking with the surface low off the coast we'll be able to tell by the rapid pressure drops.

I think that will be a direct correlation to how we do with the CCB. 

Point is... Watch that surface low. It's good it's further south now. It should track NE off the Delmarva to ACK.

After it gets about east of LI or so when south of us... Mid levels are supposed to organize. Hopefully that happens earlier than modeled so we get it good.

Right now it happens too far east of BOS.

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