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Model Mayhem V


Typhoon Tip

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And just 8-9 days ago, some thought winter was done...the last snow event had gone by, and we were heading toward spring.   That changed in short order.    And now, the Epic run that some thought was in store for SNE after the big hit on Thursday(Euro and GFS were showing an Epic stretch), has changed as well.  

Yes, 21 inches in 4 days is nothing to sneeze at for sure.  But what is happening, and looks to happen in Maine this week..looked at first like most of New England would share in that fate.  And now, well it's just Maine's fun to have.  This season is filled with quick changes from one extreme to the other.   I wouldn't get to hung up on any one "set up" moving forward the remainder of winter".  That goes for calls like, "Epic week incoming"...to "Rain to Maine", to "snow melt to the Canadian boarder", to "pack being completely wiped out in all areas of SNE"...  to "Winter is done..spring is coming."    

Personally, the winter has been very changeable...can't really hang ones hat on any one idea for very long.  I don't think we've seen the last of winter here in SNE either..even if we do warm up for a while.   With the recent snow the last four days...I'm at 47.5 inches on the season...that's only an inch or two away from my Seasonal normal for the whole winter.  So being it's only Feb 13th, I think I'll gamble and say that I should finish the year above normal in Snowfall here.  

  

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Still furring a bit.  Again, right between those two bands for the 2nd in a row.  No complains though, great storm.

GYX from around noon today: 

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A deep upper trof will dig southeast through the Great Lakes Tue
night and then move east toward New England Wednesday. Models
are forecasting this trof to become negatively tilted which
allows coastal low pressure to develop rapidly somewhere off
the New England coast, exactly where will be critical to the
forecast for Wednesday. Models differ on placement which will
make for a tough forecast on placement of highest storm totals.
For now it appears central and eastern areas of Maine will have
highest amounts. There could briefly be a mix with rain along
the immediate coast but any changeover would be brief. Plenty of
cold air will be in place and thus lowered max temps on
Wednesday. Overall prefer the EURO solution for now in
forecasting this system. Significant accumulations are possible
with this system depending on exactly where mid level low
tracks.

 All eyes on Wednesday/Thursday now with school vacation (aka Ski Week) next week.

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24 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

 

And just 8-9 days ago, some thought winter was done...the last snow event had gone by, and we were heading toward spring.   That changed in short order.    And now, the Epic run that some thought was in store for SNE after the big hit on Thursday(Euro and GFS were showing an Epic stretch), has changed as well.  

Yes, 21 inches in 4 days is nothing to sneeze at for sure.  But what is happening, and looks to happen in Maine this week..looked at first like most of New England would share in that fate.  And now, well it's just Maine's fun to have.  This season is filled with quick changes from one extreme to the other.   I wouldn't get to hung up on any one "set up" moving forward the remainder of winter".  That goes for calls like, "Epic week incoming"...to "Rain to Maine", to "snow melt to the Canadian boarder", to "pack being completely wiped out in all areas of SNE"...  to "Winter is done..spring is coming."    

Personally, the winter has been very changeable...can't really hang ones hat on any one idea for very long.  I don't think we've seen the last of winter here in SNE either..even if we do warm up for a while.   With the recent snow the last four days...I'm at 47.5 inches on the season...that's only an inch or two away from my Seasonal normal for the whole winter.  So being it's only Feb 13th, I think I'll gamble and say that I should finish the year above normal in Snowfall here.  

  

Heh ... not really - 

I am not privy precisely as to who said what, when where and why, ...and admittedly, I probably spend about half as much time actually on this forum as the rest of you ...but I don't recall seeing enough posted content to even qualify the statement, "some thought" 

You are posting in a thread right now that relayed one favorable pattern into the present one ... that's a clue that the opposite was probably true wrt to "some thought" - as in, most thought otherwise. 

Well,... going forward, we don't have those pattern markers really flagged from traditional methods and sources.  And, once you get past mid February and stare down the barrel of a AN pattern ... it would seem having doubts about what this winter can produce is better justified at this time. 

Doesn't mean we are absolutely destined to put a fork in this puppy, no - I agree with the changeability as aspect alone.  And to that, it had better change, or ...you DEFINITELY can put a fork in at least this remainder of this month.  ...after this week that is..

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh ... not really - 

I am not privy precisely as to who said what, when where and why, ...and admittedly, I probably spend about half as much time actually on this forum as the rest of you ...but I don't recall seeing enough posted content to even qualify the statement, "some thought" 

You are posting in a thread right now that relayed one favorable pattern into the present one ... that's a clue that the opposite was probably true wrt to "some thought" - as in, most thought otherwise. 

Well,... going forward, we don't have those pattern markers really flagged from traditional methods and sources.  And, once you get past mid February and stare down the barrel of a AN pattern ... it would seem having doubts about what this winter can produce is better justified at this time. 

Doesn't mean we are absolutely destined to put a fork in this puppy, no - I agree with the changeability as aspect alone.  And to that, it had better change, or ...you DEFINITELY can put a fork in at least this remainder of this month.  ...after this week that is..

When I said some...I meant just that..Some.  We all know the ones that can get negative in an instant.  Or as soon as it shows a change to AN for a while..winter is over and it's a "Done" deal. And that's exactly what was going on in here, up until Thursday's system appeared out of nowhere/or came back to life.  

 

Yes, most thought otherwise, I agree with you on that, but "Some" did not.  And that was my point, and I believe it to be accurate in that regard. 

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"double bun" there.

Anyway, this is going to be a loooong 10-15 days. The battle between the move on camp vs anything can happen even in April camp. I'll be heading up north to the resorts in a few days, that will satisfy my snow goggles for the winter regardless what transpires to close out this underwhleming yet exciting model watching season.

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9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

"double bun" there.

Anyway, this is going to be a loooong 10-15 days. The battle between the move on camp vs anything can happen even in April camp. I'll be heading up north to the resorts in a few days, that will satisfy my snow goggles for the winter regardless what transpires to close out this underwhleming yet exciting model watching season.

Good points.  

Ill be heading north too..and that always satisfies the winter weenie in us.   If we get some more winter great (think we will imo).  If not it's ok too.  

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12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

"double bun" there.

Anyway, this is going to be a loooong 10-15 days. The battle between the move on camp vs anything can happen even in April camp. I'll be heading up north to the resorts in a few days, that will satisfy my snow goggles for the winter regardless what transpires to close out this underwhleming yet exciting model watching season.

I think it depends on your perspective. If you live on the torchiest 1kft hill in all of New England I could understand why you would want to jump to Spring right now. Thankfully most of us don't live there.

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