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Model Mayhem V


Typhoon Tip

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Yeah...it's a near-miss phase "as is" in recent guidance ... beautifully illustrated in this 12z NAM evolution, continuing ... That's interesting there to get that deep of a 500 mb result and only have a paltry 990's mb low... 

Which, unfortunately means that future guidance will have to be monitored.  The clock is ticking though...and the models may simply have the right idea on that.  It could simply just go down as a smeared failure - next. 

I actually thought when I saw the orientation of the N and S streams be more favorable in the GFS' 18z run yesterday, for phasing ...that a trend could easily ensue but it seems the antithesis happened smartly upon making that observation - heh.  

 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nah.. yours is gone too. A week of 40's and 50's and above freezing at night will take its toll. Good 2 weeks though at least 

There's no way he loses it...not from a few days in the 50s with lowish dewpoints. You never learn, lol.

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1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

LOL, what a crush job the GFS is for the same places in ME.  2"+ QPF.

 

It's do or die for the models ... today - 

I give them the benefit of the doubt do to the whole phasing headache and that even in today's vaster by comparison modeling technology,...that specific type of handling is way hugely complex to expect accuracy even in the mid ranges... By tonight, we're talking 4th ...5th ...6th period stuff so if it ain't got it by then, it would take a pretty spectacular model catastrophe if it still happened.

 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

It's do or die for the models ... today - 

I give them the benefit of the doubt do to the whole phasing headache and that even in today's vaster by comparison modeling technology,...that specific type of handling is way hugely complex to expect accuracy even in the mid ranges... By tonight, we're talking 4th ...5th ...6th period stuff though, so if it ain't got it by then, it would take a pretty delicious modeling error if it still happened.

 

 

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1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

The trend is there for that area to get walloped again.

Yeah this is pretty classic for them.

They can get on these patterns up there where they just keep getting hammered. That interior ME snowpack might take a long time to melt. They will probably exceed the pack they had in March 2014 when I was up there skiing. They had about 4 feet or a little more on the level down at town elevations.

 

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