CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 Lmao. The euro is a freezer. Holy cow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowedin Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 If we're not going to have anymore snow for the rest of the season, I say bring on spring (real spring that is). I always feel like cold without any snow to accompany it is useless and just makes you feel miserable, unless you're one of the few people who happens to enjoy that sort of thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Lmao. The euro is a freezer. Holy cow. It's 7-10 straight days of this weekend . Awful with no snow involved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 Suppression depression on euro. But even after that another system in clown range. We're gonna have our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 A lot of people cursing only to rejoice next run...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Albert A Clipper said: Gone are they days where mets would actually use skills to predict say 5-15 days out, these days they are model worshipers like the amateurs....anyone can interpret a model, where are the mets of yesteryear that would go out on a limb and state what thy think is going to happen based on knowledge an experience? DIT should have earned a met tag years ago, he calls them as he sees them and has been more accurate than most professionals though most of the past 6 seasons...yeah, there's some beer talking here, but FU mets, you're all worthless model worshipers these days..haha... Did anybody call anything? I didn't see that. It was commenting on the run which is...you know....what a model thread does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 ORD with 0.6 snow in January and T for February. Absolutely mind boggling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: ORD with 0.6 snow in January and T for February. Absolutely mind boggling! Glad we don't live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 I actually feel pretty good about our chances starting late this week. That's a good look overall and one of these things will produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Glad we don't live there. It should worry all of us but warmer is ok with me. I don't really want to leave New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 26 minutes ago, weathafella said: ORD with 0.6 snow in January and T for February. Absolutely mind boggling! I think they have 140+ years of records where that has never happened before... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 44 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Suppression depression on euro. But even after that another system in clown range. We're gonna have our chances. Excuse me? What is that? Suppression...? Haven't seen a map so EURO is probably a chillier rain down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 33 minutes ago, weathafella said: It should worry all of us but warmer is ok with me. I don't really want to leave New England. Main reason we had all that heat last 10 days was no snow cover over Lakes and Midwest. Just straight shot of west and SW winds over parched, dry land . We don't live there, but affects we here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Excuse me? What is that? Suppression...? Haven't seen a map so EURO is probably a chillier rain down here. High pressure pushes things to the south of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: It's 7-10 straight days of this weekend . Awful with no snow involved lol it's true...that was just one run but it was a terrible run haha. Full on freezer with no snow. Hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 59 minutes ago, Albert A Clipper said: Gone are they days where mets would actually use skills to predict say 5-15 days out, these days they are model worshipers like the amateurs....anyone can interpret a model, where are the mets of yesteryear that would go out on a limb and state what thy think is going to happen based on knowledge an experience? DIT should have earned a met tag years ago, he calls them as he sees them and has been more accurate than most professionals though most of the past 6 seasons...yeah, there's some beer talking here, but FU mets, you're all worthless model worshipers these days..haha... This is the model thread, dude. We say what the models show...sometimes we'll add in our own opinions of whether they are right or wrong but don't mistake model analysis for a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 1 hour ago, Snowedin said: If we're not going to have anymore snow for the rest of the season, I say bring on spring (real spring that is). I always feel like cold without any snow to accompany it is useless and just makes you feel miserable, unless you're one of the few people who happens to enjoy that sort of thing. One of the few , Love this weather bring it on . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 55 minutes ago, weathafella said: ORD with 0.6 snow in January and T for February. Absolutely mind boggling! Wow that's incredible. 60 days and 0.6" snow in mid-winter at that latitude...I mean can't even get a squall or something. Even sleet before rain could do better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: lol it's true...that was just one run but it was a terrible run haha. Full on freezer with no snow. Hilarious. At least you have pack to protect there. For most of us with no snow to hold onto in Morch may as well warm ..If it's a snowy pattern then let's bring it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This is the model thread, dude. We say what the models show...sometimes we'll add in our own opinions of whether they are right or wrong but don't mistake model analysis for a forecast. Yeah and to be honest this forum has moved away from forecasts a lot more than it used to. The old days there were a lot more actual forecasting from both mets and hobbyists (you'd see threads like "My forecast for storm X", etc). Now it's more discussion and model watching...like even right before a storm it's more "if this happens, then this" and "if that happens, then that." I just think the collective here isn't here to get a forecast, we are here to discuss. Any good hobbyist can make a pretty darn good forecast these days with the amount of model data available 24 hours out before a storm if you know what you are looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: At least you have pack to protect there. For most of us with no snow to hold onto in Morch may as well warm ..If it's a snowy pattern then let's bring it . Pack would be a liberal interpretation of it in town right now...it's like 50/50 any serious cover (not talking about the inch of snow showers on the ground in themelted out areas). Pretty much 0-6" cover and some old big snowbanks in parking lots in town. If you get a lot of sun you have no snow...if you are shaded or wooded you might have 6". Up above 1,200ft is where it's more serious widespread pack of 6-10"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 Not buying the euro for the hr 120 clipper (or lack thereof). I'd put stock in the 12z GEFS/12z GFS though. That PNA ridge on the 12z euro lacks additional support. The EPS also has a more zonal look out west, which is in agreement with the GEFS/GFS. Gonna want lattitude with this little guy. NNE quick hitter yielding WWA snows. That's my first guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, Albert A Clipper said: No, they didn't...kinda my point. Yes, a model thread does to some degree use models as gospel to amateurs, but to pros it should just be a tool in the arsenal....seems like by today's standards Model mayhem threads should be re-named model worship threads. Not too much going out on a limb by anyone anymore and producing mid range forecasts...maybe its due to Internet shaming if it fails...maybe it's just too much reliance on technology. Why would you make a forecast though given the huge run to run changes in the models? Face it, everyone relies on the models because it's a better tool than it was in the past. You look at it as too much reliance on technology is a bad thing...but in forecasting it's a good thing because the more technology and data, the better forecasts will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, Albert A Clipper said: No, they didn't...kinda my point. Yes, a model thread does to some degree use models as gospel to amateurs, but to pros it should just be a tool in the arsenal....seems like by today's standards Model mayhem threads should be re-named model worship threads. Not too much going out on a limb by anyone anymore and producing mid range forecasts...maybe its due to Internet shaming if it fails...maybe it's just too much reliance on technology. You get what you pay for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 Just now, powderfreak said: Yeah and to be honest this forum has moved away from forecasts a lot more than it used to. The old days there were a lot more actual forecasting from both mets and hobbyists (you'd see threads like "My forecast for storm X", etc). Now it's more discussion and model watching...like even right before a storm it's more "if this happens, then this" and "if that happens, then that." I just think the collective here isn't here to get a forecast, we are here to discuss. Any good hobbyist can make a pretty darn good forecast these days with the amount of model data available 24 hours out before a storm if you know what you are looking for. There's really not a whole lot to add to a well modeled system. On the other hand, when we're five days out in an uncertain pattern, you can't really add a lot either. I personally will make it well known on here when I'm going against model output. I did it in the March 2013 firehose storm...going bullish (models finally started getting there inside of 36 hours) and I went hard against qpf output in the Feb 15, 2015 storm (midlevel Magic). I remember Scott and I were telling everyone not to get sucked into model guidance spitting out 20" of snow prior to Feb 2, 2011...likewise in the now infamous "Bruce Willis" storm a few years back with NW winds at 850mb. There are times when you can go against output to some extent...both in the bullish and bearish direction. You'll hear about it from some of us mets when we do. But I'm also not going to put out a forecast for a friggin' clipper 5 days out in a fast flow pattern where model spread is large. It's pointless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 I think that's a troll post by Albert. Kind of implying old school forecasters would decipher the pattern but that's a load of bull s hit. No one forecasted beyond 3-4 days until 15 years ago and even then no one had an idea. Some would guess and it would more often than not be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There's really not a whole lot to add to a well modeled system. On the other hand, when we're five days out in an uncertain pattern, you can't really add a lot either. I personally will make it well known on here when I'm going against model output. I did it in the March 2013 firehose storm...going bullish (models finally started getting there inside of 36 hours) and I went hard against qpf output in the Feb 15, 2015 storm (midlevel Magic). I remember Scott and I were telling everyone not to get sucked into model guidance spitting out 20" of snow prior to Feb 2, 2011...likewise in the now infamous "Bruce Willis" storm a few years back with NW winds at 850mb. There are times when you can go against output to some extent...both in the bullish and bearish direction. You'll hear about it from some of us mets when we do. But I'm also not going to put out a forecast for a friggin' clipper 5 days out in a fast flow pattern where model spread is large. It's pointless. Yeah I think you can figure out people's thoughts pretty easily through their posting without them writing out "My forecast is as follows....". Its a discussion forum where you bounce ideas back and forth...you don't need to have a hard and fast forecast every day. And it seems like the implication was old school forecasters were better with less technology to confuse them. Like they could see a short wave coming on shore and then map it by hand crossing the country...and would be more successful that way than relying on all this data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: I think that's a troll post by Albert. Kind of implying old school forecasters would decipher the pattern but that's a load of bull s hit. No one forecasted beyond 3-4 days until 15 years ago and even then no one had an idea. Some would guess and it would more often than not be wrong. Reminds me if what Blizz says sometimes, the models just add confusion. Go with the weather you hope for and don't let the models add confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 Eps likes day 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2017 Share Posted March 5, 2017 It's a pattern with low predictability. Why on Earth would you make a call? The only thing right now I would say(and its jmho), is that I think one of these things will work out over the next 10-12 days. Friday still looks decent on the mean. Seems like it could be a redeveloper, although I haven't seen the indovidual members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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