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Model Mayhem V


Typhoon Tip

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4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The 6z GFS was close to something bigger.

Watch us get sucked in again and then kicked in the face...

In fact, I would almost expect it to start to trend back to something bigger because we are 48-60 out.  Great pic of your coop...does give some perspective that it has been a good little wintery stretch and we are only disappointed because the potential wasn't realized.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Chasing potential is the surest way to find dissapointnent.

Isn't life all about chasing potential?  I know it is with my business, with health, with everything.  Chasing potential causes great things to happen.

Disappointment is an emotion we create.  I create it all the time when it comes to snowstorms.

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9 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Isn't life all about chasing potential?  I know it is with my business, with health, with everything.  Chasing potential causes great things to happen.

Disappointment is an emotion we create.  I create it all the time when it comes to snowstorms.

Absolutely...I just mean within this context. Chasing potential facilitates growth when it involves outcomes that we can control. When we can not control the outcome its a fools errand..can still be fun, though..

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7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Absolutely...I just mean within this context. Chasing potential facilitates growth when it involves outcomes that we can control. When we can not control the outcome its a fools errand..can still be fun, though..

It's also why we keep watching when we are down 28-3.   Ecstasy can negate some of the negative outcomes

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25 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Watch us get sucked in again and then kicked in the face...

In fact, I would almost expect it to start to trend back to something bigger because we are 48-60 out.  Great pic of your coop...does give some perspective that it has been a good little wintery stretch and we are only disappointed because the potential wasn't realized.

I'm not expecting anything big...just keeping an eye on it. Both streams are close to interacting a bit more. 

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I'm not expecting anything big...just keeping an eye on it. Both streams are close to interacting a bit more. 

Correct me if I'm wrong but I think you'd like to see less influence from that ULL (further W&N) allowing the southern stream to inject itself more ahead of it. 

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2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Correct me if I'm wrong but I think you'd like to see less influence from that ULL (further W&N) allowing the southern stream to inject itself more ahead of it. 

I think 6z sped up the southern s/w a tad...but yeah. Either dig and/or slow the northern stream more or speed up the southern one. The euro had the mega phase days ago...I'm not hoping for that like Jiminy cricket would. Like you said though...work a little more moisture out ahead of the northern ULL and hope for a quick hitting injection low that Scooter loves.

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So whatever happens Thursday (..or not)... 

I'm impressed by the 2 to 3 day spring tsunamis from late Saturday through Tuesday. 

We'll see if it continues to have legs, but 00z Euro has a real blue-bird beaut on Sunday, with light west component and 850 mb's soaring to +4 to +7 C.  It's one of those fake warm days you get in spring - where if you are in the right moment and place, it feels like it must by 70 F in the sun while it's only 52 or whatever.  I like those, actually..  but that's just me.

Anyway, winter giveth. Winter taketh away..  It'll be interesting to see how much snow pack survives that...  In august and early september we sometimes think of a 'shot across the bow' air masses on the cool side. May not even frost, but the morning's still crispy and the air has purified smell to it.  This is a similar phenomenon going the other direction in the models, whether it verifies or not.  It portends seasonal inevitability. 

Beyond that ... ever since the deep extended came into temporaly range at all in the operational GFS (and a goodly number of the GEFs members, too) there has been a kind of slow moving ...spring -like cut-off over the EC out there in time. I'm wondering now if that's more than mere numberics in the models as the Euro and GGEM are starting to nod toward something being there.  

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sunny and 50's for weekend and beyond. Our snowpack is gonna disappear faster than Thanksgiving turkey on Scooters plate. Complete wipe out next week. Ginx will be posting about Maine ski trip soon

 

We'll retain up here, but I'm ready to pack it in. 

 

Too bad your Lesco is in a ravine along I-84.  You'll have nothing to do except wash your car.

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11 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

 

We'll retain up here, but I'm ready to pack it in. 

 

Too bad your Lesco is in a ravine along I-84.  You'll have nothing to do except wash your car.

Nah.. yours is gone too. A week of 40's and 50's and above freezing at night will take its toll. Good 2 weeks though at least 

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