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Model Mayhem V


Typhoon Tip

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GFS with some good run-run consistency regarding the block.....just saying...12z-18z.

Volatile spring like pattern with ample cold bottled up north, what's not to like?   I think from you to the Berkshires and into NW CT gets one more warning event.  

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Saw that, perfect timing?  About a foot left in Bethel 18 or so Newry. epic meltdown, it happens

And more melting on the way. Epic cutter next week that has been trending further west and deeper. Bad for ski resorts but ironically it is what helps the more wintry look afterward with the block. It is a wave breaking event that helps the blocking solidify. 

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

And more melting on the way. Epic cutter next week that has been trending further west and deeper. Bad for ski resorts but ironically it is what helps the more wintry look afterward with the block. It is a wave breaking event that helps the blocking solidify. 

what has been a saving grace has been avoiding super heavy rain and that seems to be the case again with this weeks cutter. 

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

owhat has been a saving grace has been avoiding super heavy rain and that seems to be the case again with this weeks cutter. 

Yes but I am wondering how much of this melting is running off vs. soaking into the ground.  We need some heavy rain or late snow that can penetrate.

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Just now, mahk_webstah said:

Yes but I am wondering how much of this melting is running off vs. soaking into the ground.  We need some heavy rain or late snow that can penetrate.

i am talking about ski slopes only, worm turns it seems for them after this latest cutter, signs of a block and cooler temp regime

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12 minutes ago, Albert A Clipper said:

yeah, but at this point cooler temps won't "cut" it....they need some new snow. 

snowmaking tonight and just get us the cold, it will snow up there. I don't ski glades anymore I know many do but the powder hounds already had there best skiing already

32390988113_f222dea8a7_b.jpg

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6 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

How's your 10 day threat looking?  - 10 days from last weekend that is?

Not all threats work out...at the time it was valid and had multiguidance support. This pattern I'm speaking of is currently trending in the opposite direction. I'm not sure why anyone should be indicted for keeping an open mind...its also possible that the blocking comes to fruition and we still whiff.

I usually do not block about day 10 threats,  but there has been nothing to post about, it was well supportes and I figured anyone with a clue would be mindful of the caveats inherent of a day 10 threat.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not all threats work out...at the time it was valid and had multiguidance support. This pattern I'm speaking of is currently trending in the opposite direction. I'm not sure why anyone should be indicted for keeping an open mind...its also possible that the blocking comes to fruition and we still whiff.

Just goofing on you.

I'm hoping that some can do well after mid-month.  I am thinking that my area is pretty much out of the picture, but you will have a chance or 2 I think.  Maybe you can conjur up a that 12".  Long shot but maybe.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Jesus....the majority of b*tching is coming from circles that have observed near normal or above snowfall...

lol. I think normal snowfall is only part of the picture.  We all knew the pattern was not going to warrant long term snow pack, or big time totals for most, but even knowing all of this, it's kind of a bummer to see the season slip away as it is doing.  On the opposite side, when ever the 10 day works out, you are a hero.  Good with the bad I suppose.  

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2 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Just goofing on you.

I'm hoping that some can do well after mid-month.  I am thinking that my area is pretty much out of the picture, but you will have a chance or 2 I think.  Maybe you can conjur up a that 12".  Long shot but maybe.

I will disagree with you and Steve on this. We arent done if Snow88s magical blocking appears. 

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What is your sessonal total?

I dunnno, I just go by what HubbDave has. It's not about seasonal total for me, it's about it pack.  If it's snows a foot then melts 3 days later, that's a bit useless for me.  Tough to snowshoe, snowmobile, x-country ski and ice fish if it's warm 90% of the winter. 

 

This wasn't the worst winter ever, but not the best either. 

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I will disagree with you and Steve on this. We arent done if Snow88s magical blocking appears. 

lol. Well, if you look at Snow88 in Brooklyn NY vs. me in Brooklyn CT, I would say Brooklyn CT wins that small battle.  Just maybe something in the cards, but my gut says no. We will see what the block party brings us.  

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2 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

lol. Well, if you look at Snow88 in Brooklyn NY vs. me in Brooklyn CT, I would say Brooklyn CT wins that small battle.  Just maybe something in the cards, but my gut says no. We will see what the block party brings us.  

Agree my gut says no as well but the little guy below it says, maybe so. 

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