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Model Mayhem V


Typhoon Tip

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35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GEFS gone wild D9-15....EPS not really biting.

 

 

Yeah, saw that...

I'm sticking by my declaration from yesterday going forward.  Not buying in...  the onus in on the GEFs to put up or shut up.  

It's not knock on the ensemble system, either - they are allowed to collapse signals in lieu of knew ones. It's the name of the game. It's just that we'd expect some 'stability' for a given paradigm based upon a lot of weight for having a lot of members. Doesn't seem we are really getting that stability for now so there's reason not to trust it.

But I think we had a discussion a while back about how the ensemble (individual members) were sort of become ever less distinguishable from their operational leaders.  Hmm. I wonder.  Of course, I have seen plenty of difference in the last 2 weeks wrt to the GFS compared to the GEFs, so perhaps not this time.  

Either way, the GEFs have uniquely earned center stage - put up or shut up.  

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6 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

lol.  I saw a moth 2 weeks ago out in the woods. Even with all of the snow on the ground. Black flies FTL.  

Yeah, saw a couple tiny bugs and a winter moth flying around the back light of the house last night.

Saturday should kill off those early bugs that hatched during this past weeks heat wave.

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10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

 

So what do you think...anything to both of these(GEFS and GFS) going wild????   Or just a Flash in the Pan and it doesn't mean much.   Is that block for real??  

 

You got DIT passing on it lol.

 

When modeling doesn't show much he's all gong-ho.   When it actually shows something of substance(big Blocking signal and potential),  he's passing.   

Gone wild. Perhaps the idea is there, but spatial and temporal end result would be much different than the GFS op. EC laughs at that.

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gone wild. Perhaps the idea is there, but spatial and temporal end result would be much different than the GFS op. EC laughs at that.

Not that I think that that will happen, but the EURO "laughing" at something in the long range doesn't have the same connotation that it has in the past.

It hasn't been horrible, but neither has it distinguished itself from the pantheon of guidance this year-

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not that I think that will happen, but the EURO laughing at something in the long range doesn't have the same connotation that it has in the past.

It hasn't been horrible, but neither has it distinguished itself from the pantheon of guidance this year-

This!!    Exactly This.

 

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Just when I was all burnt out about to nap until Novie, the gfs op rolls a fattie of white widow and DIT jumps out of back seat of his waxed truck with the lighter. What to do now.....?

Doesn't meant that it has to produce, but my analog set flagged March for NAO....let's see what happens.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Now that is a block. None of this short 48 hr ridge into Greenland. That is a block.

That shows you how to keep winter threats going indefinitely....that's a pretty awesome look. Too bad it's clown range and only the GFS/GEFS want to go witht he idea...but who knows, maybe they will be right. Remember when they were right about the mid to late Feb /early March 2013 pattern? Every now and then....

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39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That shows you how to keep winter threats going indefinitely....that's a pretty awesome look. Too bad it's clown range and only the GFS/GEFS want to go witht he idea...but who knows, maybe they will be right. Remember when they were right about the mid to late Feb /early March 2013 pattern? Every now and then....

But the Euro/EPS hasn't been very good either in the long range...so I guess the bottom line is, it's clown range and probably the GEFS/GFS is hitting the pipe hard.

 

Just my opinion, but to be quite honest, if the Euro/EPS showed the same thing, I don't think I'd trust it anymore than the GFS/GEFS at this stage.  

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