Hazey Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Wouldn't shock me if a good chunk of March we end up rolling snake eyes. Could envision cold cutter cold scenario playing out. The good news is we are at the end of winter for the most part so I doubt anyone will get their underwear in a knot if that played out like that. I think we made the most out of a pretty lousy pattern overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Nice gradient pattern on the EURO run this afternoon...the problem is the gradient is 75 miles north of Montreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 5 minutes ago, Hazey said: Wouldn't shock me if a good chunk of March we end up rolling snake eyes. Could envision cold cutter cold scenario playing out. The good news is we are at the end of winter for the most part so I doubt anyone will get their underwear in a knot if that played out like that. I think we made the most out of a pretty lousy pattern overall. Given the lack of blocking just about anywhere in the high latitudes for most of this winter along with a strong and westward placed SE ridge, we've done pretty well. Way too early to know much about the fate of March though. It's easy to say we'll throw in the towel every time the OP Euro shows an ugly cutter at day 8, but the reality is we will likely not see our next snow threat until inside of 7 days. I remember even last year, a ton of peeps (including lot of twitter posts by mets) decided to announce the arrival of spring in the first couple weeks of March only to get pantsed by mother nature with a good snow event on 3/21 and then back to back snow events in early April that coincided with record cold. We're still over 3 weeks away from astronomical spring, so I'd probably keep the shovel handy a little longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2017 Author Share Posted February 27, 2017 It seems like the 'pattern' just keeps going back to rolling those big-ass pinwheels down the Canadian Pacific coast at least excuse imaginable. ... That's the general Pacific circulation doing that - of course. One upshot, we're correcting droughts at west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Friday's "clipper" is a meat grinder system...nobody's getting much of anything out of that. Maybe some snow showers in the Mid-Atlantic. Well that's if you believe the Euro Lets see if the GFS eventually goes towards the Euro or the Euro goes towards the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2017 Author Share Posted February 27, 2017 People should keep the shovel handy in New England until May -- even in the worst of times. It's just that some years there's a palpable sense about where things that are going that's harder to ignore. I remember the antithesis to this, ...and there have been a few, sure. 1996 kept snowing into April. 2005 ( I think it was...) kept going ... days would get back close to 50 with winter storm watches going up for the next night... I'm not sure what that is, and the 'feel' of the thing is of course less than ideally scientific (to put it nicely). interesting... But this is one of those candidates - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Well that's if you believe the Euro Lets see if the GFS eventually goes towards the Euro or the Euro goes towards the GFS. Or just about every other piece of non-GFS guidance. GFS already ticked south at 12z compared to the two previous runs and the Euro didn't tick north...we know where this one is going....straight to the meat grinder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Another good bet this year has been models backing off the cold like they are doing again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2017 Author Share Posted February 27, 2017 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Another good bet this year has been models backing off the cold like they are doing again. yup ... old habits die hard, huh - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2017 Author Share Posted February 27, 2017 In fact.. jesus... this could end up down right warm right when it was thought we had a chance.. this' gotta be a mistake - wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 One other annoying trait of this winter has been the aversion to split flow....we've had a hard time getting it. This can often act in place of high latitude blocking. We sort of achieved this in the Jan 23 event, though because it occurred in such a putrid longwave pattern, we didn't have any type of an airmass to work with. But it still yielded that sleet/snow event regardless. With some split flow, this would be a really nice pattern with a cold Canada. But it's been like pulling teeth to get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2017 Author Share Posted February 27, 2017 By the way...since SSW predictions came up several times this season, here is an example of a warm intrusion into the stratosphere that is NOT a downwelling correlation on the AO: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2017 Author Share Posted February 27, 2017 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: One other annoying trait of this winter has been the aversion to split flow....we've had a hard time getting it. This can often act in place of high latitude blocking. We sort of achieved this in the Jan 23 event, though because it occurred in such a putrid longwave pattern, we didn't have any type of an airmass to work with. But it still yielded that sleet/snow event regardless. With some split flow, this would be a really nice pattern with a cold Canada. But it's been like pulling teeth to get it. Just me ... but I believe firmly that 'aversion' was in large part because the southern heights were never receded... They are/were compressed S at times. But the atmosphere has a sort of elasticity to it (we covered this in FAST). This was a bit of an exercise in that happening. In lock-step, the south expands or recedes, as the N ebbs and tides lower heights S. It fits (then) that it would be difficult for the flow to split with that going on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Just me ... but I believe firmly that 'aversion' was in large part because the southern heights were never receded... They are/were compressed S at times. But the atmosphere has a sort of elasticity to it (we covered this in FAST). This was a bit of an exercise in that happening. In lock-step, the south expands or recedes, as the N ebbs and tides lower heights S. It fits (then) that it would be difficult for the flow to split with that going on... Yes...the composite image of the winter I posted last page shows this well...it was particularly impregnable in the eastern U.S. The SE ridge was very stout...moreso than anywhere else in that latitude belt that had a lot of high heights going back into the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 47 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Or just about every other piece of non-GFS guidance. GFS already ticked south at 12z compared to the two previous runs and the Euro didn't tick north...we know where this one is going....straight to the meat grinder. It must be nice to live in Snow88's fantasy world. Maybe we can all go visit him one day.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Gotta give the GFS credit for stubbornness at least. Came back north with the clipper and quite strong at 18z. Still not buying it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: It must be nice to live in Snow88's fantasy world. Maybe we can all go visit him one day.... He just posted what the GFS showed, perhaps you have a better place to troll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: In fact.. jesus... this could end up down right warm right when it was thought we had a chance.. this' gotta be a mistake - wow. Would match the overall tenor of the season. Any update on the little critter next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2017 Author Share Posted February 27, 2017 23 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Would match the overall tenor of the season. Any update on the little critter next week? It's likely a no show ... As others have noted (rightfully so.. ) the flow is manically compressed (seemingly at all times); the correction for that is less, and seeing no other guidance really carry that feature, I suspect it's a matter of time before the GFS caves. That said... yeah, sometimes models score coups - but as you say, the tenor of the winter: coups don't break favorably for us this year. It's just the way the cookie crumbles this time. You know, not that you or anyone asked ... but, for the 3 year average, we are still way way absurdly above because of 2015... Kind of puts things into perspective - Can't snow big every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2017 Author Share Posted February 27, 2017 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes...the composite image of the winter I posted last page shows this well...it was particularly impregnable in the eastern U.S. The SE ridge was very stout...moreso than anywhere else in that latitude belt that had a lot of high heights going back into the Pacific. Know what ...? I remember clearly 1998 - 2001 there was a problem with that feature popping back up the least excuse, much in the same way. (although as I've mentioned elsewhere, heights from the subtropical Pac extending the whole way are modestly positive in nature but...could be related to the same thing). What's common between then and this era? ... worth considering... The Caribbean is the warm enso dumpster - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Yeah GFS rips off a nice 3-5" stripe for all of SNE. Solid advisory event. Then it's got the system next week , more south and sheared with some 2ndary bagginess. Interesting turn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2017 Author Share Posted February 27, 2017 Hoarfrosthubb... also the tenor of the winter: waits until anyone is asked an opinion, then models do the opposite. heh. anyway, 18z is 1-3" again for that critter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah GFS rips off a nice 3-5" stripe for all of SNE. 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: heh. anyway, 18z is 1-3" again for that critter. lol I haven't even looked but I love the classic DIT interpretation. 3-5 vs 1-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: lol I haven't even looked but I love the classic DIT interpretation. 3-5 vs 1-3 Tips had a very bad day on the forum http:// Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 59 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Tips had a very bad day on the forum http:// Screw it. If that verifies or trends a bit more in WV, I'm thinking of chasing. It's been that bad down here. Back to 80 and humid by Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Tips had a very bad day on the forum http:// Looks like 1-3 to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 split the difference, 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah GFS rips off a nice 3-5" stripe for all of SNE. Solid advisory event. Then it's got the system next week , more south and sheared with some 2ndary bagginess. Interesting turn Thought you hated the GFS? That no met should ever use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Just sayin NAM has that clipper as a strong Vort max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 The irony of me being one of the few that was satisfied this season....lol. Agreed with Will....can't complain bc it could have been MUCH worse. Nice that we pulled a decent year, and the western angst has largely been allayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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