ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 Hard to call it the most wintry pattern of the season when we had a 10 day stretch of big snow and cold earlier this month. That said, it looks like we will have some shots and the cold shot next weekend looks pretty anomalous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 26, 2017 Author Share Posted February 26, 2017 I think the idea of "winter reload" bandied about recently doesn't necessarily require the change be very extreme - in whatever form it takes. In some minds, with any change it is best to have the new paradigm be less warm than it was during this last week, up through yesterday (Saturday). Anything cooler as a pattern regime/characteristic probably qualifies to those individuals - ha ha. But more objectively, in my mind ... to be a winter reload, the dailies should come down to normal, with 'tolerance' AN given to GW and a head nod to perturbation allowance. But of course 'winter reload' is a phrase endemic to forum world, less a scientifically derived. Preeety sure you're not going to find that term in the AMS catalogue. I'd say, for the purposes of at least striving for cogent conjecture, the term should really only imply, when a pattern movement bears some semblance to normalcy (after perhaps being qualitatively AN). I think we're going to succeed in doing that much. As a side note, warm bust season (another phrase... oy) begins around the 15th of February (which by the way is the end of the annual solar minimum months). That invented terminology basically means, any perfect heating day from now until about mid summer (when climate and machine guidance catch up to one another), will tend to verify some 1 to 3 or 5 ... degrees F above MOS'. That's also part of the 'allowance' thing above... Anyway, as far where we are, the reload looks really like it takes place in stages. The shot across the bow for that came through in a whoosh last evening with those gusty showers. Now, we enjoy laminar flow of cold... But, it's been modeled for days ..at this point inarguably so, that this will roll-over to unabated WAA; in fact, so unabated there really isn't much WAA at all. The entire column/medium from Cincinnati OH to Portland ME will just up and move out, collaterally in time with the advance of a well mixed warm sector. That's an interesting... albeit tedious characteristic about the synoptic evolution for mid week. Huge, huge synoptic scale sensible impact weather changes are rarer? Those sort of things are usually reserved more for the meso scaled phenom. Like, BD's ...Chinook heat blasts.... Blue Northers...etc... Equally as prominent and almost as hard to deny is the cold coming next weekend that Will and others have alluded. THAT cold air mass would be (hypothetically) the one servicing our GEFs derived, teleconnector signal for the first week of March. About that, .. the signal is still there. Whether it materializes on the 5th or the 7th into the 8th bares less relevance to the cogency of the talking point. At this time range, "signals" can oscillate in a spatial-temporal bath-tub of probabilities, ... I'd suggest if nothing materialize at all between the 3rd and the 10th then we can debate why nothing happened. Which, by the way, not all signals produce; it's possible nothing does. There are other aspects if not limitations to consider there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 2 hours ago, dendrite said: I guess the GFS is a good model when it fits your interests. Pretty typical. When something doesn't show what you want, make up a reason to toss it. Ride the coldest model with the most snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Modeling starting to pick up now on the stormy, wintry pattern. GFS has 3 separate events. starting with a 1-3 lolli 4" clipper pike south Fri nite A few events on the GFS Euro has the events also but weaker Might be fun times ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 18 minutes ago, Snow88 said: A few events on the GFS Euro has the events also but weaker Might be fun times ahead Should be fun for New England yes I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 John....def. agree that the cooling takes place incrementally....it will be gradual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 This long term deep winter bs looks like a big fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 26, 2017 Author Share Posted February 26, 2017 24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: John....def. agree that the cooling takes place incrementally....it will be gradual. Ha, yeah thx... Thing is, smoldering in the tenor (it's just out there), if perhaps even fabricated in my own mind to be terribly honest, is a sense that there is a back-draft of attitudes just waiting for the door of disappointment to open, to just explode 'SEEeee'. Part of it is to convey potential while preemptively laying the ground work for the shutting of numb-nut activated ...dysfunctional pie-holes. Lord knows it will only be some percentage successful; there will always be those that lampoon cogent arguers based upon their own disappointment, and/or formulate an impression of said arguer that is ultimately utterly unfair and based solely on their own disillusioned... j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 Everything you have conveyed is still iron clad, whether we see another flake or not. I'd love more snow, but this winter has been ok, as is.....I just don't want one of those cold, dry and windy March months that I have had so often of late. I'd rather flip back to warm..hopefully any failure of the pattern to deliver take place quickly, and is not tediously protracted over a month of day teners' Terrible- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 14 minutes ago, weathafella said: This long term deep winter bs looks like a big fail. I must be missing something... this week looks pretty mild overall... not as warm as the last few days... but it still doesn't look like anything that resembles winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I must be missing something... this week looks pretty mild overall... not as warm as the last few days... but it still doesn't look like anything that resembles winter. Not this coming week, the next. We have spoken at length about how the transition is slow. This week is seasonably mild, as opposed to this past week's swamp-shorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I must be missing something... this week looks pretty mild overall... not as warm as the last few days... but it still doesn't look like anything that resembles winter. This week always was gonna be mild. Not sure what Jerrys missing.. but the winter returns Fri. The dates have always been Morch 4/5-15 and then true late spring /early summer temps like we just had are here for good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 15 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I must be missing something... this week looks pretty mild overall... not as warm as the last few days... but it still doesn't look like anything that resembles winter. Yeah...as Ray said the big cold shot comes next weekend. It's a potent shot as modeled right now, but it doesn't look anything like Mar 2007. There's still time for it to moderate a bit too, but regardless, it looks much colder and favorable going forward. Climo temps are steadily climbing now so a -15C airmass with good mixing in March can still get you up into the 30s. A favorable snow pattern that time of year reminds me of out west sometimes. 45-50F and warm sun one day and then pounding snow at 28F the next. Peak cover season is about kaput here barring some March madness so I'd prefer it plays out like that. Give me a bomb and then wipe it out in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: and then true late spring /early summer temps like we just had are here for good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 There's a cutter risk after next weekend so I wouldn't herald the winter hounds at all. I think the best shot of anything is actually after that...deeper into March, ironically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: There's a cutter risk after next weekend so I wouldn't herald the winter hounds at all. I think the best shot of anything is actually after that...deeper into March, ironically. GFS actually shows that exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: There's a cutter risk after next weekend so I wouldn't herald the winter hounds at all. I think the best shot of anything is actually after that...deeper into March, ironically. There's always a cutter risk. We'll take chances with that look. Certainly a decent look. Better than this mild week which everyone and their brother saw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 3/1 may be very warm again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 GEFS are actually pretty far north with the clipper like the OP was for Friday. Euro hasn't been hitting but then again GFS didn't until today. I agree with Tip that we can really stretch the "signal" to at least the 10th...perhaps even a bit longer. Scooter mentioned how things actually get a bit deeper for trough in east as we go further into month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GEFS are actually pretty far north with the clipper like the OP was for Friday. Euro hasn't been hitting but then again GFS didn't until today. I agree with Tip that we can really stretch the "signal" to at least the 10th...perhaps even a bit longer. Scooter mentioned how things actually get a bit deeper for trough in east as we go further into month. Plus you figure as long as you don't have a March 2012 pattern...have a cold Canada and anything can happen late month. Hopefully next week isn't a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 26, 2017 Author Share Posted February 26, 2017 To be fair to the warmhearted folk - wow that is a truly impressive warm sector look for Wednesday... If anything, that push looks warmer than the yesterday's both thermodynamic, and sensibly... We'll see... You know - it may have been modeled this way, fine ..but, I'm actually impressed how mild-like it feels today. Perhaps this early shot will pay off for cold when the wind dies off and we decouple tonight. Similar to last week, the Monday morning to Wednesday afternoon difference was 20F to 66! Euro looks warmer than 66 on Wednesday... that is, if the skies acquiesce to sun and the wind doesn't go too much into a S direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: To be fair to the warmhearted folk - wow that is a truly impressive warm sector look for Wednesday... If anything, that push looks warmer than the yesterday's both thermodynamic, and sensibly... We'll see... You know - it may have been modeled this way, fine ..but, I'm actually impressed how mild-like it feels today. Perhaps this early shot will pay off for cold when the wind dies off and we decouple tonight. Similar to last week, the Monday morning to Wednesday afternoon difference was 20F to 66! Euro looks warmer than 66 on Wednesday... if the skies open up and the wind does go too S. Might be a toned down repeat 3/6-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 26, 2017 Author Share Posted February 26, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: Might be a toned down repeat 3/6-7. The thought did cross my mind ...but ...I suspect if that siggy gets cut down in that time range, it's more seasonal off-set than mass field modulation. There's too much support there from everything - Could still fail. The beast of burden in this fercockt hobby or profession is that even in the most certitude there's an element of uneasiness. Barring the broader technological pantheon up and failing en masse, I don't think we're getting through that period unscathed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The thought did cross my mind ...but ...I suspect if that siggy gets cut down in that time range, it's more seasonal off-set than mass field modulation. There's too much support there from everything - Could still fail. The beast of burden in this fercockt hobby or profession is that even in the most certitude there's an element of uneasiness. Barring the broader technological pantheon up and failing en masse, I don't think we're getting through that period unscathed. The thing is it may take more time for the troffiness to dig deep enough and the resistance from the receding seasonal jet and the subtropical ridge which never really went away this winter looms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 26, 2017 Author Share Posted February 26, 2017 15 minutes ago, weathafella said: The thing is it may take more time for the troffiness to dig deep enough and the resistance from the receding seasonal jet and the subtropical ridge which never really went away this winter looms. That's a powerful argument ... I cannot disagree, either. I have been pounding the awareness drum all season ...More so, however, that it's more than just subtropical and/or SE ridging that's been that plague, just to add to that. There are products out there that help elucidate this if folks care to look for them, but the entire girdle of heights that rings the hemisphere from south of Japan around to the Americas and eastward to west Africa have average2 some 2 to 5 DM higher than the 30-year mean height distribution. It's a subtle anomaly. One that doesn't really even really show up in the sensitivity of those pretty colorized anomaly products that abound. But it's been there ...at all times, creating resistance to the seasonal migration south colder heights from the N ... squeezing away. Cause? I don't know... could be in part GW... could be in part left over heat budget off the super NINO. Could be all attributed to either. Who knows - It would take a lot of computational analysis to blame anything with veracity. What I do believe is that as the seasonal migration south of colder winter heights began to umbrella the NH last autumn...the unyielding height wall in the deep south - everywhere - caused unusually steep gradient and very fast wind velocities in between the impulses... The discussion gets too mathematical for the average reader so I'll stop there (the Mets and clever hobbyists know what happens next), but too much screaming wind at all times mutes storm genesis - certainly residence times in any location. You may get the same frequency, but with less bombs... You end up with more shredded systems in the means, and shearing in general is harder to overcome. ... Truth be told, it's one reason why I've been careful to remind along the way, that not all signals produce... This whole discussion point is a particularly compelling reason if someone wants to rely upon it. I'm just not sure I'm willing to do so at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 Wonder if as the westerlies lift and the seasons change, we witness at least an interlude of abatement of that gradient....bowling ball potenetial.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 Nice cutter 3/6-7 on most guidance. Sands of time are running out. Telling to me is comparing the last 6 runs of the EPS. Just looking st SV snow totals shows how it's changed. Fairly robust in the 12Z runs Friday 2/24 but backed off in SNE run to run and cointinues to do so. We might have to rely on a Hail Mary here south of NH/VT/ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 26, 2017 Author Share Posted February 26, 2017 Heh, I dunno Jer' I hear you, but I'm open minded about the next 2.5 to 3 weeks. I mean yes to what we were talking about earlier, re the hemispheric/systemic stuff, but .. there's still room there with that mass-field signal for things to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 26, 2017 Author Share Posted February 26, 2017 Little critter bites on the 18z GFS, hour 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 Put the beach chairs, towels, and tanning lotion away folks...sit in your favorite recliner and buckle up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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