Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Model Mayhem V


Typhoon Tip

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Damn... was hoping to see some emergence in the operational runs for that first week of March (seeing as it's only 4 days away...) but so far ...we're just seeing a cold shot roll- over pattern.  I suppose that's a start -

In any event, at least as far as the GEFs teles are concerned, the PNA rises some 3 standard deviations now through the 8th of March, and the NAO flips negative around the 2 or 3rd..so in theory an event or two could pop.  

It's either a waiting game or a wasting game - time will tell.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I wonder if we get stinging cold but come up empty snow wise.  Ensembles all backing off some 12z.

It would actually be kind of fitting to end a winter that seemed to go out of its way to polish turds toward average snow numbers via the worst possible showing of affectation that is physically possible relative to an average snow season. 

Pretty remarkable how perfectly wrong it always was...   It's like 2012 was somehow better - weird.

I'm just joshin' 2012 was so bad it was beautiful - it almost transcended bad... God just sinned. Period.

It's a not a huge leap to see how the winter enthusiast is probably a bit jilted right now, and now because it's warm yesterday and today but since Halloween.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This winter was definitely better than last year's, from a transplant point of view. Last year we had snow in Boston maybe 6-7 times, mostly staying under 3" and melting away within a few days. At least this time we got some good snow that stuck around for weeks...twice. Even as we hit 60s there's still slush piles in parking lots sticking around from that great snowfall we had a few weeks back.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree that it is a waiting game.

but nothing is wasted in my opinion.

what will be will be is as easy to understand as your A B C's..

What is great is the wanting,

the yearning

the believing in the face of uncertainty..

most important...

to rise again and keep thy faith.

its really simple actually..

very simple

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On ‎2017‎-‎02‎-‎24 at 4:31 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Euro ensembles are pretty impressive. If correct, it's going to be quite the amazing turnaround in sensible wx. We're sitting with May climo today and we're going back to below normal even for a January day probably some time in the first few days of March...and there's a pretty nice storm signal for around March 5-6. Good PNA rise popping a ridge out west at the same time. Could be a Miller B type look though it can definitely change. Then behind that there is what looks to almost be a reload near the end of the ensemble run. 

Do you see any parallels/similarities to what occurred in March 1984? February that year was apparently a torch, only to be followed by a frigid March.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Do you see any parallels/similarities to what occurred in March 1984? February that year was apparently a torch, only to be followed by a frigid March.

Kind of funny that about a week ago, late February 1984 was an analog on the ensembles. 

We'll see. The exceptional cold showing up is kind of similar and there were some messy events with decent snow early in the month but the big dog actually occurred late that month in the waning cold. 

The march 5-6th event on the ensembles kind of went to crap on the 12z runs but it still looks like a decent pattern even if that one doesn't pan out. They were showing a bit of a reload at the end of the run too. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Funny how the deepest winter pattern of the whole winter is coming in Morch when it's not expected or wanted by a lot of folks. Going to be some pissed off people the next couple weeks after the mild spell ends Friday. Stinging cold with people cursing the cold , landscapers who thought they were gonna start spring cleanups etc. Love it

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Funny how the deepest winter pattern of the whole winter is coming in Morch when it's not expected or wanted by a lot of folks. Going to be some pissed off people the next couple weeks after the mild spell ends Friday. Stinging cold with people cursing the cold , landscapers who thought they were gonna start spring cleanups etc. Love it

It's been the same up here in Toronto where, apart from December, the winter has been a bust. People have written off winter up here, especially after it got up to 60 on Thursday.

 

Funny, also, how mild winters often end cold.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Funny how the deepest winter pattern of the whole winter is coming in Morch when it's not expected or wanted by a lot of folks. Going to be some pissed off people the next couple weeks after the mild spell ends Friday. Stinging cold with people cursing the cold , landscapers who thought they were gonna start spring cleanups etc. Love it

There will be maybe 2-3 deep winter days but otherwise more March like.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

59 minutes ago, weathafella said:

There will be maybe 2-3 deep winter days but otherwise more March like.

Ya, DIT looking for some comments on the cold 3 days at the end of next week lol.  He's looking for some METS to bite on his "Deepest winter pattern" of the winter idea.  No one is biting.   I'm not thinking the deepest of the season In my opinion.   

 

Trying to convince himself that deep winter is coming back.   

 

Models flowing and ebbing on that idea..looked better yesterday...not as good today-at least with regards to storminess.   Cold and dry perhaps??  That would SUCK!    Let's keep the mildness if that's the case. 

This whole supposed flip, could Flop very easily. And you get 28-34 degrees for a couple days, then it's 50 again right after.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya, DIT looking for some comments on the cold 3 days at the end of next week lol.  He's looking for some METS to bite on his "Deepest winter pattern" of the winter idea.  No one is biting.   I'm not thinking the deepest of the season In my opinion.   

 

Trying to convince himself that deep winter is coming back.   

 

Models flowing and ebbing on that idea..looked better yesterday...not as good today-at least with regards to storminess.   Cold and dry perhaps??  That would SUCK!    Let's keep the mildness if that's the case. 

This whole supposed flip, could Flop very easily. And you get 28-34 degrees for a couple days, then it's 50 again right after.   

Not buying any winteriness at all.....moving on at this point.....

 

2 hours ago, weathafella said:

There will be maybe 2-3 deep winter days but otherwise more March like.

You mean more Morch like......lol Morch 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...