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Model Mayhem V


Typhoon Tip

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43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's possible. About all you can say. Nothing is absolute. Could be misses...could be hits...could be mix to rain.

No complaints from me.

Zero.

This is how I would draw it up....if it isn't going to snow, give me this weather.

Still some fun to come, I suspect....winter isn't quite finished, despite a bit of spring-foreplay....she'll hastily dress back up, as the rents pull in the driveway-

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Oh well next week will be AN...but yeah beyond will be different.  I just would like to get another decent couple events and then we can call it a season.

This.

My goal is two more warning events....grab an average winter and verify my outlook, then onto the fantasy draft.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No complaints from me.

Zero.

This is how I would draw it up....if it isn't going to snow, give me this weather.

Still some fun to come, I suspect....winter isn't quite finished, despite a bit of spring-foreplay....

Snowfall is about seasonal avg here at the moment. Well above the climo point at this date. I wish we could have kept some snow around longer, but two big storms...I'll take it. I'm not a fan of summer weather...hopefully it's at least active.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Snowfall is about seasonal avg here at the moment. Well above the climo point at this date. I wish we could have kept some snow around longer, but two big storms...I'll take it. I'm not a fan of summer weather...hopefully it's at least active.

I'm still about 1' below average...but about normal to date.

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6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Skies clearing. Torch commencing. 

Yeah i was kinda wondering about that, the ceilings that is 

Still, having 9 thru noonish hours dimmed by mid level deck is probably going to cost some 3 to 5F of potential.  Not that 68 or whatever it ends up isn't awesome for February 24 of course. I can see the blue and opening sky W-N of my location in northtern Middlesex Co in Mass.. 

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Well well well... if it isn't the GFS/GEFs and the ensuing wintry coup de etat of the pattern.

Actually, the operational Euro grudgingly nods by D10 but ...seeing as it is D10 it could just be coincidence (haven't seen the EPS).

Actually, the signal (winter enthusiast centric) improvements begin in earnest 00z in the GEF derivatives some two night ago ... Frets and starts prior to that in the operational version. But last night's 00z stuff in all really coalesced around a bona fide winter reload look for me, in the sum total of the GFS family of modeling technologies...  pretty cleartly at that, as we head across the first of March onward. 

How long would it last?

What kinds of impacts? 

...All good questions...

As far as how long it last (obviously, predicated on the assumption that the means/derivatives combined with the operational trends more than less work out that way), I have a hunch it probably dies a slow death as March ages onward... terming from a winter sensibility into a typical New England butt bang spring.  If for no other reason, because I am paranoid and nervy about the prospect of late March thru early May of any given year.  But, I have a coveted hypothesis that winter like patterns mapped over spring warming is favored in a climate holocaust - but let's not go there. 

In the here and now, if we get a +PNA  ...onset after a 7 day stint of cold loading into Canada off a -EPO, the EPO ridge can collapse ... you still have a favorable pattern and a source region established, for transporting said cold and [hopefully] generating storms. 

That should lend to the sort of impacts, but, we have other things to overcome if we want organized storms. For one, the gradient broken record is still endlessly doing it's thing.  

Just using the CDC numbers alone, I would tend to focus on the March 3 - 7 range.  That's a tele' striker period for a correction event right in there; "weather" there is anything outright depicted for that time range this far in advance across the pantheon of operational models or not, that is true, until such time as the tele's modulate away from the present look.  Other things may happen too - this is obviously not an immovable/immutable perception of ensuing events.

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