weathafella Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 I've been warning folks. One of my students finishes her rotation this week. She has had the pleasure of learning the meaning of the following phrases: mid-level magic, downslope dandy...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: TB is good peeps...had the pleasure a few times. Definitely this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 Meh...there will be more snow, but the back of deep winter has been broken. I think most people realize it's only Feb and we have plenty of crap weather to go before it's consistently nice. I see no problem with enjoying a few days of 50s to near 60F though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 Torch day. 65-70 for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Torch day. 65-70 for some. Already in the 60's here in Manchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 The GFS has seriously been on drugs this week up here. Another 6hr forecast valid 18z. I'm currently in the mid 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 GFS doesn't even give rain to parts of NNE...a couple frozen SWFE the next week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 We tan dong today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We tan dong today Ummmm, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS doesn't even give rain to parts of NNE...a couple frozen SWFE the next week or so. And then the cold comes marching in. Looks like a good pattern toward s latter next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I wonder how many FB posts about "spring is here" pop up over the next few days. Revisit those posts in 10 days. I just hope its worthwhile. ...I think we'd all opt for spring over a NNE pattern w cold rain here ....I think sne gets another nice event, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2017 Author Share Posted February 23, 2017 Overnight teleconnectos shifted (GEF derived...) markedly going into March...particularly the end of that first week, say 10 days from now... (I hate reporting this; I'm mentally checked on winter on afternoons like this). Firstly, backing off the cold early next week was actually in the cards three days ago. NCEP mentioned in their extended product(s) that any cool down would be toward seasonal averages and short lived, prior to the warmth plausibly rolling back in and that's precisely what the operational models have modulated toward. Kudos to them I suppose... But I did post that material in here.. Not that anyone cares of course... Beyond that, ... we probably need reminding that March, 1956, brought that year almost the seasonal total in that ending month. ...Maybe it was '57... not sure, but Leonard told me about living that experience in NYC. Pounding 12" ers one after the other... At the tale end of 2015 mega snows.. March featured a high temperature of 19 F on the 12th. I remember thinking that would be like September 29th sun at the other end. See ... it's not about "if" it can do so this late in the year; certainly no question there on just February 23rd by anyone mentally responsible... It's more a question of whether people can see outside their tormented boxes. You're so used to being porked by wanting snowy weather, and not getting it... that it becomes difficult to imagine any other reality. So yeah ...tough to keep an open mind, perhaps. One thing I do see as a legit limitation/concern is that we are still plagued with too much gradient in the flow. Looking at the GFS' evolution beyond mid next week, really does nicely to illustrate why that's a problem. There are some six to eight clipper type impulses/short waves cutting SE in a flattish +PNAP pattern, but most if not all of them are not strong enough to mechanically over-power the fact that they are embedded in winds already moving along at some 70 to 100 kts of static velocity. The waves have to have a wind max that is substantially stronger than the static winds, as they enter a given region, or less storm genesis/organization ensues. That's just the physics of it all, 101. That's exactly what's going on out there in time. Plenty of S/Ws, but the existing gradient is a negative interference pattern. That also is what f'ed up our winter all along, save for the 2 weeks in there. But even during those 2 weeks, systems was eroded for potential because of the fastness of the flow and this non-differentiable maelstrom of global velocities roaring over head at all times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: I tan dong today Awesome. You are probably the only one doing this, but enjoy just the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Overnight teleconnectos shifted (GEF derived...) markedly going into March...particularly the end of that first week, say 10 days from now... (I hate reporting this; I'm mentally checked on winter on afternoons like this). Firstly, backing off the cold early next week was actually in the cards three days ago. NCEP mentioned in their extended product(s) that any cool down would be toward seasonal averages and short lived, prior to the warmth plausibly rolling back in and that's precisely what the operational models have modulated toward. Kudos to them I suppose... But I did post that material in here.. Not that anyone cares of course... Beyond that, ... we probably need reminding that March, 1956, brought that year almost the seasonal total in that ending month. ...Maybe it was '57... not sure, but Leonard told me about living that experience in NYC. Pounding 12" ers one after the other... At the tale end of 2015 mega snows.. March featured a high temperature of 19 F on the 12th. I remember thinking that would be like September 29th sun at the other end. See ... it's not about "if" it can do so this late in the year; certainly no question there on just February 23rd by anyone mentally responsible... It's more a question of whether people can see outside their tormented boxes. You're so used to being porked by wanting snowy weather, and not getting it... that it becomes difficult to imagine any other reality. So yeah ...tough to keep an open mind, perhaps. One thing I do see as a legit limitation/concern is that we are still plagued with too much gradient in the flow. Looking at the GFS' evolution beyond mid next week, really does nicely to illustrate why that's a problem. There are some six to eight clipper type impulses/short waves cutting SE in a flattish +PNAP pattern, but most if not all of them are not strong enough to mechanically over-power the fact that they are embedded in winds already moving along at some 70 to 100 kts of static velocity. The waves have to have a wind max that is substantially stronger than the static winds, as they enter a given region, or less storm genesis/organization ensues. That's just the physics of it all, 101. That's exactly what's going on out there in time. Plenty of S/Ws, but the existing gradient is a negative interference pattern. That also is what f'ed up our winter all along, save for the 2 weeks in there. But even during those 2 weeks, systems was eroded for potential because of the fastness of the flow and this non-differentiable maelstrom of global velocities roaring over head at all times. Wow. Must have been difficult walking around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Wow. Must have been difficult walking around I was thinking the same thing...and that you might have some advice for him. I am in spring mode, but know that we will get more snow. But damn it is nice today, and snow has been melting at a DIT pace! Lost 1.5ft in a week. If I'm lucky it will melt enough so that I can clear some old brush around stone walls, before the final assault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: I was thinking the same thing...and that you might have some advice for him. I am in spring mode, but know that we will get more snow. But damn it is nice today, and snow has been melting at a DIT pace! Lost 1.5ft in a week. If I'm lucky it will melt enough so that I can clear some old brush around stone walls, before the final assault. We tried telling folks.. but they insisted on chickens not seeing grass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 March 1958, John.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 45 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We tried telling folks.. but they insisted on chickens not seeing grass They won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2017 Author Share Posted February 23, 2017 10 minutes ago, Albert A Clipper said: Tip, what does the 2nd half of March look like for the west? We're thinking of squeezing in one more trip to Utah in late March. You're best hope for that level of determination is to bop ahead ~ 200 years when there is a Weather Modification Grid ...like in Star Trek: Next Generation... J/k... Seriously ... it goes without saying there's no way to know for certain (duh). The next best thing is analogs ... take into consideration the longer term indices, like the state of the ENSO and PDO and match against years of lore that were fed from similar set ups and see where those late March's ended up... It's not my typical exercise but I think Scott or Steve or Jerry may have done that - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 52 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We tried telling folks.. but they insisted on chickens not seeing grass well all due respect there is still a foot left...but the rain might finish that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: They won't. Long way to Tipperary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: They won't. you are going to eat them first? to spare then the horror of bare ground in February? I'll bring the noodles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 NWS forecasts for high temps today busting 5-10 degrees too low throughout SNH. Also big bust potential tomorrow on temps. Tomorrow looks warmer than today so I'm not sure why NWS forecasts for SNH are in the mid 50's away from the immediate coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: well all due respect there is still a foot left...but the rain might finish that. Now that's it's ripe with no freezing until Sunday night.. she's gone. Gone like your undies in Ptown! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2017 Author Share Posted February 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: NWS forecasts for high temps today busting 5-10 degrees too low throughout SNH. Also big bust potential tomorrow on temps. Tomorrow looks warmer than today so I'm not sure why NWS forecasts for NH are in the mid 50's away from the immediate coast... I don't speak for NWS (obviously...) but... up through yesterday, NAM solutions were BD'ing down to almost the Pike are even HFD... They've backed off a lot on that, but... so long as there is a boundary up there .. anyway, maybe vestiges of that in grids ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: March 1958, John.. No. Look up 1956. I lived both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2017 Author Share Posted February 23, 2017 32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: March 1958, John.. Lord knows dates f with me ... but I'm preeeety sure he said it was 1956 - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: I don't speak for NWS (obviously...) but... up through yesterday, NAM solutions were BD'ing down to almost the Pike are even HFD... They've backed off a lot on that, but... so long as there is a boundary up there .. anyway, maybe vestiges of that in grids ? Good point. From what I understand the signal was robust several days ago but had since weakened significantly. But if we BD this time of the year we struggle to get out of the 30s. So it's still difficult to use that as support for their forecast highs in the mid to upper 50's, unless they were aiming for some sort of "middle ground" to account for a low degree of confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 The GFS has seriously been on drugs this week up here. Another 6hr forecast valid 18z. I'm currently in the mid 50s.If only that map had been correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 3 hours ago, dendrite said: The GFS has seriously been on drugs this week up here. Another 6hr forecast valid 18z. I'm currently in the mid 50s. Yeah I feel like highs have been 10F to even 20F higher than even short range guidance this week. It's been crazy...and not just one day but like 3-4 in a row now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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