Model Mayhem V

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro still a torch next week. Nice model battle 

So are the other models.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

So are the other models.

Gfs has 3 chilly days and a snow event. The Euro has none of the above 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Gfs has 3 chilly days and a snow event. The Euro has none of the above 

You need to look at a model.

[CoastalWx]

The euro is weak and south with the wave, not because it's a torch. Other than that...I don't see a huge difference in temps. You may be looking at pretty H5 colors, but at the surface, the euro wedges us ahead of the next cutter later next week. Overall...it's not even close to a model battle.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

The euro is weak and south with the wave, not because it's a torch. Other than that...I don't see a huge difference in temps. You may be looking at pretty H5 colors, but at the surface, the euro wedges us ahead of the next cutter later next week. Overall...it's not even close to a model battle.

I know. There is no snow on the Euro which is what I said. And it looks like a few days in the 40's pre torch.

our window is Morch 5-11. Pre and post torch after and before . Nothing has changed 

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I know. There is no snow on the Euro which is what I said. And it looks like a few days in the 40's pre torch.

our window is Morch 5-11. Pre and post torch after and before . Nothing has changed 

You said it's a torch and model battle.  There is no model battle regarding that.

[Typhoon Tip]

If I didn't know any better...   

the model inconsistencies in both the operational version and balanced against/ in and among their ensemble means (teleconnectors) really hearkens to spring already. 

Euro has a D9 +PNA flat but clad... but the PNA is supposed to be negative then.  That's typical of spring ..that sort of inconsistent and/or incongruent look -

[Angus]

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

Farmington's 5 warmest March days in 124 years' observations:

83   3/22/2012
82   3/21/2012
80   3/20/2012
79   3/20/1903
78   3/18/2012

Even in a warming climate, I'm not expecting a repeat any time soon.

I just went back thru my records and confirmed it was 3/20/2012 that I skied Saddleback. Left metro boston before 5AM. Skied all day and was back home by 10PM. I had pre-purchased a bunch of tickets expecting to go in late March/early April for a weekend. Sold a couple in the parking lot. By 2ish I was the only one on mountain, trails that I skied in the morning were totally melted out by end of day. I finished my ski season the following weekend - 24th at Stowe skiing boilerplate (if I recall it got cold on Friday) and the 25th at Loon in a rain storm - again had pre-bought tickets. Correction: I just went back to photo archive and saw I skied the first weekend of May at Tuckermans...talk about bare, yikes! Also, I have a picture of downtown N. Conway, green leaf canopy!

[MJO812]

First 2 weeks of March will be favorable and then that's it.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

First 2 weeks of March will be favorable and then that's it.

If even that.  Lot's of conflicting signals...You're a weather bell guy if I remember right???  Did you see the latest video...he's not to confident in what will happen.  Signals for some cold, and just as many for spring too.   Mid West may be the place for a winter return...tough to see which will dominate???

[Cold Miser]

Kevin vs. the World.

[Typhoon Tip]

member P005's Mar 6 and 7 would make people happy

[EastonSN+]

I am rooting for Kev. I would HATE finishing the year 1 inch below average. It would be the 5th below average year in past 17. Just One inch!

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I am rooting for Kev. I would HATE finishing the year 1 inch below average. It would be the 5th below average year in past 17. Just One inch!

It's coming. We have a one week window before it's over , but it could be a wild week or so

[CoastalWx]

EC ensemble looks good later in the 11-15 day.

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EC ensemble looks good later in the 11-15 day.

First two weels and then winter's over

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

First two weels and then winter's over

provide some proof since you posted this a dozen times

[Ginx snewx]

24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It's coming. We have a one week window before it's over , but it could be a wild week or so

Link?

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EC ensemble looks good later in the 11-15 day.

Oh for f sake ...

if the weather "looks good" 15 days from now I'm out.   Talkin' career change ...relocation ..the whole thing.  I don't need f'ed up cold sh*t weather in Mar when it's painfully obvious to sane folk that it's futile.  ... but, chances are, that signal will be just as  bullschitty as all the others... so at least we have that going for us.

i just i don't get it... why is summer and warm weather so loathsome?     

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh for f sake ...

if the weather "looks good" 15 days from now I'm out.   Talkin' career change ...relocation ..the whole thing.  I don't need f'ed up cold sh*t weather in Mar when it's painfully obvious to sane folk that it's futile.  ... but, chances are, that signal will be just as  bullschitty as all the others... so at least we have that going for us.

i just i don't get it... why is summer and warm weather so loathsome?     

I just mean more for the chances of wintry weather. In New England, I don't really root for warm weather in March as it usually is about as much of a tease as 1995 Carmen Electra sitting on your lap, and also...it has the better chance of failing and getting cut off at the pass to our SW. 50s don't do anything for me.

[Cold Miser]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I just mean more for the chances of wintry weather. In New England, I don't really root for warm weather in March as it usually is about as much of a tease as 1995 Carmen Electra sitting on your lap, and also...it has the better chance of failing and getting cut off at the pass to our SW. 50s don't do anything for me.

This.

March is pretty much a useless month...April comes in a close second. At least in March lets take the snow chances and enjoy them instead of staring at leafless limbs and brown grass while praying for Summer while the bone chilling 50 degree temps are king.  

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh for f sake ...

if the weather "looks good" 15 days from now I'm out.   Talkin' career change ...relocation ..the whole thing.  I don't need f'ed up cold sh*t weather in Mar when it's painfully obvious to sane folk that it's futile.  ... but, chances are, that signal will be just as  bullschitty as all the others... so at least we have that going for us.

i just i don't get it... why is summer and warm weather so loathsome?     

Climo winter ends March 21st , spring begins in May, what is in between sucks,unless a foot of snow falls in April like last year. seriously its hot long enough why extend it. Might as well live in DC. By the end of March its warm enough for baseball practice but cool enough to keep the bugs dormant. seasons in seasons.

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I just mean more for the chances of wintry weather. In New England, I don't really root for warm weather in March as it usually is about as much of a tease as 1995 Carmen Electra sitting on your lap, and also...it has the better chance of failing and getting cut off at the pass to our SW. 50s don't do anything for me.

yeah, to each his own.. 

I don't really root for cold weather with snow in March as seasonal change/inevitability makes it about as much of a tease as 1995 Carmen Electra sittin on your lap.  50's do a lot for me, as I can enjoy numerous outdoor activities in 50s weather, which I can really enjoy when rooting on cold and snow "usually" only gets us to 37 F in BD mist.  

Heh, i'm just bustin' ballz -  .. i will admit though. these early fake warm days where it's 58 with light breeze and lot of sun play off the lack of acclimation and feel a lot warmer.  if we got a 1::200 year April blizzard .. that's a different story - the world stops and all expectations are out the window if something extraordinary is about to take place.   problem is, ... heh, those are too rare.  

i'm actually okay with March truth be told.  But come April ?  hoooly f'n bananas does that month drive me to it

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah, to each his own.. 

I don't really root for cold weather with snow in March as seasonal change/inevitability makes it about as much of a tease as 1995 Carmen Electra sittin on your lap.  50's do a lot for me, as I can enjoy numerous outdoor activities in 50s weather, which I can really enjoy when rooting on cold and snow "usually" only gets us to 37 F in BD mist.  

Heh, i'm just bustin' ballz -  .. i will admit though. these early fake warm days where it's 58 with light breeze and lot of sun play of the lack of acclimation and feel a lot warmer.  if we got a 1::200 year April blizzard .. that's a different story - the world stops and all expectations are out the window if something extraordinary is about to take place.   problem is, ... heh, those are too rare.  

i'm actually okay with March truth be told.  But come April ?  hoooly f'n bananas does that month drive me to it

I'll root for warm weather in April for sure. Not 90s, but 70s are dam nice. But in March up this way? That's still a cold climo to me. March is always an interesting weather month as it offers some pretty drastic changes. Hopefully we can get a couple of monster coastals. LOL. 

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Link?

There's too many to post. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There's too many to post. 

AIT

[tamarack]

15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh for f sake ...

if the weather "looks good" 15 days from now I'm out.   Talkin' career change ...relocation ..the whole thing.  I don't need f'ed up cold sh*t weather in Mar when it's painfully obvious to sane folk that it's futile.  ... but, chances are, that signal will be just as  bullschitty as all the others... so at least we have that going for us.

i just i don't get it... why is summer and warm weather so loathsome?     

Seasons in seasons, as certain people like to say.  The chances of my not having a significant snowfall (say, 4" or more) after mid-February are not zero - happened in 2006 - but awfully close to it.

 if we got a 1::200 year April blizzard

Already did that, so the next one comes in 2182.  April '82 might not have been a 200-yr snowfall, but coming with mid-January temps ups the ante.  Not 200 yet, but NYC records back thru 1871 show no other similar April combo of snow and cold.

[sankaty]

2 hours ago, Angus said:

I just went back thru my records and confirmed it was 3/20/2012 that I skied Saddleback. Left metro boston before 5AM. Skied all day and was back home by 10PM. I had pre-purchased a bunch of tickets expecting to go in late March/early April for a weekend. Sold a couple in the parking lot. By 2ish I was the only one on mountain, trails that I skied in the morning were totally melted out by end of day. I finished my ski season the following weekend - 24th at Stowe skiing boilerplate (if I recall it got cold on Friday) and the 25th at Loon in a rain storm - again had pre-bought tickets. Correction: I just went back to photo archive and saw I skied the first weekend of May at Tuckermans...talk about bare, yikes! Also, I have a picture of downtown N. Conway, green leaf canopy!

I also skied on 3/20/12, at Stratton in 70 degree sunshine with rapidly disappearing snowcover.  It was a great day, but I figured the season was pretty much over.  Then Killington got 19" of snow on April 9-10, and I had another fabulous couple of spring skiing days.

A lot can happen between now and mid April.

[Ginx snewx]

11 minutes ago, sankaty said:

I also skied on 3/20/12, at Stratton in 70 degree sunshine with rapidly disappearing snowcover.  It was a great day, but I figured the season was pretty much over.  Then Killington got 19" of snow on April 9-10, and I had another fabulous couple of spring skiing days.

A lot can happen between now and mid April.

Most surreal week of skiing I ever had, first day in full gear, rest of the week shorts and Tshirts. Was 90 in the sun with butter to ski on. Bikini week and a lot of cold brews on the deck. Have to say I had the best time of my life and SR was fully open except the glades of course. 

 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Most surreal week of skiing I ever had, first day in full gear, rest of the week shorts and Tshirts. Was 90 in the sun with butter to ski on. Bikini week and a lot of cold brews on the deck. Have to say I had the best time of my life and SR was fully open except the glades of course. 

 

Great picture!!  

Are those guys short?? Or are you just very tall??