40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 LOL First two weeks is all we need in sne...after that, its an uphill battle against climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: CFS?? Come on. Look at ENS, GEFS.. retro ridge. Trough west SE ridge east. It's a torch mid month on . ? EPS GEFS only go out to March 10th? where do you get this sh it. March 2012? I mean cmon dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 33 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: ? EPS GEFS only go out to March 10th? where do you get this sh it. March 2012? I mean cmon dude Yup.. the second half of the month looks like an all out furnace. Hopefully it holds off to some degree until after your ski trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: How is saying the word"snowy" an inaccurate statement? It's just a word You know what I mean. You're insinuating that certain model runs are snowy, and that there are multiple SWFE chances showing/coming. And the METS here countered each one of your statements as not being accurate verbatim....at least not for SNE. Now sure, those will change and I agree that anything this year out more than 5 days is not worth getting upset/giddy over. But those model runs you quoted yesterday don't look "Snowy" and don't have multiple "SWFE Thumps" on them for SNE as they stood yesterday. Maybe they will today..who knows. So that's how that's inaccurate. But if you were trying to stimulate discussion...then well I guess you succeeded in doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 Yeah the GEFS suggest some Greenland ridging and a better pattern March 5th-10th. Hopefully that lasts for a bit. Who cares about mid to late March at this point.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yup.. the second half of the month looks like an all out furnace. Hopefully it holds off to some degree until after your ski trip. won't matter at all what the temps are on my ski trip Kev, seen it all. I prefer mid 40's and low dews but you are on record for March 2012 redeaux, alrighty then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: You know what I mean. You're insinuating that certain model runs are snowy, and that there are multiple SWFE chances showing/coming. And the METS here countered each one of your statements as not being accurate verbatim....at least not for SNE. Now sure, those will change and I agree that anything this year out more than 5 days is not worth getting upset/giddy over. But those model runs you quoted yesterday don't look "Snowy" and don't have multiple "SWFE Thumps" on them for SNE as they stood yesterday. Maybe they will today..who knows. So that's how that's inaccurate. But if you were trying to stimulate discussion...then well I guess you succeeded in doing that. best post he made yesterday was when he said the Euro looked good and Will penie slapped him immediately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: best post he made yesterday was when he said the Euro looked good and Will penie slapped him immediately Yes...that was precisely my point. Those statements he was coming out with yesterday weren't accurate at all with regards to the models he was highlighting...at least not where we all live. And the METS countered quickly. Anyway, hoping that the first half of March can give us a lil more winter...not ready to pack it in just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: won't matter at all what the temps are on my ski trip Kev, seen it all. I prefer mid 40's and low dews but you are on record for March 2012 redeaux, alrighty then. The last 10-14 days of the month. Yes I think 70+ is very likely. That's different than you saying all month which I'm not. We have a short window.. the mets have all said it.. then it ends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 NAM says no warm for you Friday and Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 24 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: Yeah the GEFS suggest some Greenland ridging and a better pattern March 5th-10th. Hopefully that lasts for a bit. Who cares about mid to late March at this point.. Depends upon latitude. My avg snowfall March 1-14 is 9". For 15-31 it's 8", and that period includes the two largest events in my 18 Marches here. (Both in 2001) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The last 10-14 days of the month. Yes I think 70+ is very likely. That's different than you saying all month which I'm not. We have a short window.. the mets have all said it.. then it ends Good luck with your forecast. I have not seen one met say March 2012 but good luck with that 2012-03-18 72 39 55.5 17.2 9 0 0.00 0.0 2012-03-19 79 39 59.0 20.4 6 0 0.00 0.0 2012-03-20 79 46 62.5 23.5 2 0 0.00 0.0 2012-03-21 75 52 63.5 24.1 1 0 T 0.0 2012-03-22 83 54 68.5 28.8 0 4 0.00 0.0 2012-03-23 75 53 64.0 23.9 1 0 0.00 0.0 2012-03-24 64 49 56.5 16.0 8 0 T 0.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NAM says no warm for you Friday and Saturday. Bend over and hard back door Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2017 Author Share Posted February 22, 2017 ..Always a threat for early warmth here in the marine-continental-hybrid peninsula known as SNE... I've actually seen the NAM over do that in the 36 hour+ plus range, tho...and it eases off sometimes getting inside of 24 hours. but meh, whatever. Warmth this early is transient (usually) anyway, so 6 hours or 6 days who cares. ------- Here's an interesting thought... Suppose we've silently crossed a Global Warming threshold (think crossing an Event Horizon of a black hole, where theoretical physicists inform us that in doing so...the observer doesn't actually sense anyting unusual or different as they do so..), where the circulation of the hemisphere is affected in such way that the R-wave distribution has a baseline normalcy that is different going forward... That would fascinating; for one, it would mean that the standard teleconnector correlations have to change. -NAOs would mean the same thing to eastern N/A or western Europe, per se. We know that all NAOs are not created equal - some are east based, west based...and so on, perhaps even N and S... But these variations however subtle or gross have different correlations. We juggle them, as do the models...and do our best to synthesize and outcome for determinism/forecasting, but ...if those these sub-classes of variations therein are also changing correlations because of the fluid medium its self changing with GW, that's a fascinating implication. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 We'll what the 12z stuff says, but we might have an overrunning deal on Tuesday if the EPS is right. Weak wave goes under us. It's been hinted on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 Huge difference in 12Z GFS for Monday Tues, its back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 Looking ahead, the -EPO is actually not our friend. Our window is really when it relaxes and retros into Siberia. What happens is that the -PNA relaxes which then eases off the SE ridge. You also may have ridging in Greenland which acts to keep the cold in Canada and keeps heights off the East Coast in check. So our window comes after the-EPO cold dump...if you really want to be a wishful weenie..hope for some subtle height rises over the west coast at the end of the 11-15 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 If anything it looks better to me for winter wx threats as we go deeper into March...not worse. I don't see anything that shows a March 2012 type pattern. Could we get 70? Sure. That does happen as it only takes a quick ridge with +10 850 temps. Happened many times in non-2012 Marches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: If anything it looks better to me for winter wx threats as we go deeper into March...not worse. I don't see anything that shows a March 2012 type pattern. Could we get 70? Sure. That does happen. Happened many times in non-2012 Marches. That's what I mean....sort of ironic that it looks better after we get rid of this awful SE ridge...and that's when we head deeper into the warmer month. It's not even close to March 2012. We had torch days last March and a nice snow event later that month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2017 Author Share Posted February 22, 2017 Couldn't really be any worse in terms of forced digestion (...that's code for 'eat schit'). For the snow pack zealots ...you lose big time (not sure if totally) but enough not to ignore, then... the BD comes in and if the NAM gets its way it's 38 and drizzle for two days before the cold front cleans house. Then the Global take over and not snow ...just roll-out the cold in wait for another pattern deliberately engineered to bend you over and violate any sense of joy you could have .. it's really quite remarkable how wrong it is everywhere. nice. It's actually bad for me because i was hoping for some real run at spring but... truth be told, the boundary was /is not really convincing stalled NW of us even int he Global runs... and we did mention a couple days ago that so long as the EPO was negative ..that's really dicey for sustaining warm here, so .. that's understandable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That's what I mean....sort of ironic that it looks better after we get rid of this awful SE ridge...and that's when we head deeper into the warmer month. It's not even close to March 2012. We had torch days last March and a nice snow event later that month. Yeah the EPS were trying to pop some ridging out west and get rid of the deep RNA pattern. Still, we could time an event before that happens if we get lucky. The early March 2003 event happened in a similar transient pattern. Same with the early March 1996 overrunning stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 Not sleeping on Monday Tuesday even if its an inch would be cool in the midst of way above normal to see some snow to end the snowy month of Feb 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That's what I mean....sort of ironic that it looks better after we get rid of this awful SE ridge...and that's when we head deeper into the warmer month. It's not even close to March 2012. We had torch days last March and a nice snow event later that month. Well that's not what you were saying yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Well that's not what you were saying yesterday I said the next 10 days looked awful heading through the first week. And they do. If we get that weak event next week...that's a bonus amid a rather lousy pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I said the next 10 days looked awful heading through the first week. And they do. If we get that weak event next week...that's a bonus amid a rather lousy pattern. But you said this morning we warm past mid month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Not sleeping on Monday Tuesday even if its an inch would be cool in the midst of way above normal to see some snow to end the snowy month of Feb 17 I've been riding that period since last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2017 Author Share Posted February 22, 2017 Fwiw - the 12z GFS scoots a 1-3" look through around d5.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: But you said this morning we warm past mid month Yes we probably revert back at some point after mid month. I certainly wouldn't pick a date though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Good luck with your forecast. I have not seen one met say March 2012 but good luck with that 2012-03-18 72 39 55.5 17.2 9 0 0.00 0.0 2012-03-19 79 39 59.0 20.4 6 0 0.00 0.0 2012-03-20 79 46 62.5 23.5 2 0 0.00 0.0 2012-03-21 75 52 63.5 24.1 1 0 T 0.0 2012-03-22 83 54 68.5 28.8 0 4 0.00 0.0 2012-03-23 75 53 64.0 23.9 1 0 0.00 0.0 2012-03-24 64 49 56.5 16.0 8 0 T 0.0 Farmington's 5 warmest March days in 124 years' observations: 83 3/22/2012 82 3/21/2012 80 3/20/2012 79 3/20/1903 78 3/18/2012 Even in a warming climate, I'm not expecting a repeat any time soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 Euro still a torch next week. Nice model battle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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