dryslot Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoolMike said: Parade of cutters on the 12z guidance. Been a parade of cutters all winter on guidance, Some did cut, Many ended up not cutting, Just need to wait them out until shorter leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 29 minutes ago, CoolMike said: Parade of cutters on the 12z guidance. -PNA, SE Ridge from hell and no ATL blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Why? Descent into solar min, -QBO and potential warm-neutral/weak Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2017 Author Share Posted February 21, 2017 ..ye -heah... then it's March 03 and we're still waiting for this 'it's not over'... followed by the inevitable '..plenty can happen after March 07' that we're still waiting for on April 4th... Oh, it snows a gloppy inch on the 10th ...then, we have an early run at 90s that terms into the hottest summer on record for the OV/NE region... while we're waiting for 'it's not over' to finally kick in.. J/k... but seriously.. the point of the antithesis to the 'it's not over' is, not ignoring the writing on the wall. that's all. it may not be - okay. it probably isn't. sure. but, i think the hand throwing is really based upon a sort of unconscious acceptance there. it's been a pulling teeth this year despite season snow totals... the winter has seemingly gone out of its way to create an affectation of sh*ttiness...more exercises in humility and longing than anything else. and everything anyone says to try and offset that comes off as bargaining and bs; probably annoys the winter enthusiastic base. face it, it's sucked. let's call it what it is.. we've had 2 1/2 weeks that didn't suck. book ended by 2 months that did, and now a minimum of 10 days on the other end (we'll see where she goes - probably not 'down') and therein, it gets understandably harder to imagine as we turn the solar page and start climbing out of the annual insolation nadir, that there is a destiny in this that includes 'it's not over'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 You have your years wrong John. March and April 2003 were strong as was the entire winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 I don't know if this thread or the ME field trip gone amuck thread is funnier but both provided me with belly laughs today....thanks gentlemen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Euro looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 12 minutes ago, weathafella said: You have your years wrong John. March and April 2003 were strong as was the entire winter. I think he meant to say "March 3rd" and "March 7th". But yeah, I get that guidance isn't showing a parade of coastal nukes and a massive PNA+ and huge -AO. But I'm not sure it's even really possible to say it's over at our latitude on February 21st. Guidance could be showing 70s for all of next week and you still wouldn't be able to say much about the chances for more large snow events other than reduce the overall chance a little bit because we simply waste another week. But that still only gets us to like March 3rd or 4th in that hypothetical scenario. ..and the current scenario isn't as dire for snow lovers. We are gonna have to dodge cutter potential but we will likely have chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Euro looks good Looked crappy to me verbatim. Big cutter on March 1st. But it's possible that becomes an overrunning event instead if the energy is ejected in pieces or we can form a little split flow north of it. It tries to give a weak wave the day before but it kind of fizzles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2017 Author Share Posted February 21, 2017 NCEP's not buying any idea of winter reloading next week - fyi. pretty much the opposite ... They're pretty clearly hedging that the Sunday big frontal sweep turns right back around two days later. Euro's been more than less banging that idea that last couple of cycles... But the operational GFS has been trying to use progressive flow to crush the southern height wall more which then bleeds cold further SE and really sort of sets up an entirely different look for it's extended comparatively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 It's cutter city through next week. Maybe it gets better beyond that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's cutter city through next week. Maybe it gets better beyond that. That's been the guidance for a week or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 idk what the GFS is trying to do at the sfc this week up here, but crack is whack. Valid 18z Wed and 18z Thu... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 Tippy Tulip pattern. Lots of Nape runners coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Tippy Tulip pattern. Lots of Nape runners coming up. Full on summer down here. Trees starting to bud and warmer spots closing in on 80F by the end of the week. 60s up there ain't too shabby either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 I can't shake this sinking feeling that we endure no snow and AN warmth most of March and then get an anomalous cold snap to destroy the buds on the fruit trees heading into April followed by weeks of cutoff lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I can't shake this sinking feeling that we endure no snow and AN warmth most of March and then get an anomalous cold snap to destroy the buds on the fruit trees heading into April followed by weeks of cutoff lows. Hopefully we get an April 1987 after a week of 90F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 There was a nice northeast interior snow event in April '98 after the near 90F end to March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 Canada is dam cold, but the SE ridge is overwhelming the east. The west and Plains will have a harsh visit from old man winter. We need that ridge to either weaken, get -NAO blocking, or get the -EPO ridge to shift east. If that doesn't work, then you hope for a well timed event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 Snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Snowy Lol every post you make saying it looks wintry or snowy...the METS say the opposite! I know, I know, it's how you get them to open up and say what modeling is really showing. And to try and stimulate conversation, in an otherwise dull winter period...I get that. But wouldn't it be easier just to ask what modeling is showing, rather than just throwing statements out that are inaccurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 9 hours ago, Brian5671 said: -PNA, SE Ridge from hell and no ATL blocking. 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Canada is dam cold, but the SE ridge is overwhelming the east. The west and Plains will have a harsh visit from old man winter. We need that ridge to either weaken, get -NAO blocking, or get the -EPO ridge to shift east. If that doesn't work, then you hope for a well timed event. Scott, I think that's the key. Tamp that down a bit and a -PNA/SE ridge combo is +QPF around these parts. And as Will said, there is cold lurking nearby. We could hit it right like December and end up +snowfall just as easily as -snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 If it snows again, great....if not, I'm over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 8 hours ago, WinterWolf said: Lol every post you make saying it looks wintry or snowy...the METS say the opposite! I know, I know, it's how you get them to open up and say what modeling is really showing. And to try and stimulate conversation, in an otherwise dull winter period...I get that. But wouldn't it be easier just to ask what modeling is showing, rather than just throwing statements out that are inaccurate? How is saying the word"snowy" an inaccurate statement? It's just a word Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 Tank tops and iroc's for the next 10 days or so. After that the frontal boundary might be far enough south for some snow chances. Great period to beat these snow banks back. No complaints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 It looks like the cold does try to make a push east heading into the first week of March. That's probably our window before it tries to warm up after mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It looks like the cold does try to make a push east heading into the first week of March. That's probably our window before it tries to warm up after mid month. Morch 5-11 is our window. Then it shuts and Morch 2012 stays for good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Morch 5-11 is our window. Then it shuts and Morch 2012 stays for good First two weeks is favorable. After that, we might bake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Morch 5-11 is our window. Then it shuts and Morch 2012 stays for good 17 minutes ago, Snow88 said: First two weeks is favorable. After that, we might bake. Where do you guys get this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 CFS?? Come on. Look at ENS, GEFS.. retro ridge. Trough west SE ridge east. It's a torch mid month on . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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