JC-CT Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Feb? foot on the 5th, 8 on the 8th Oh yeah, wasn't there a blizzard too? Lol, that's why I think Kevin's upgraded snow table is quite possibly the best thing ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Just now, JC-CT said: Oh yeah, wasn't there a blizzard too? Lol, that's why I think Kevin's upgraded snow table is quite possibly the best thing ever. yes that certainly is great, too bad some are not keeping track, its easy to look back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Going forward next week and beyond certainly looks like quite a bit of snowy potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 41 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Going forward next week and beyond certainly looks like quite a bit of snowy potential And if the EPS is right, cutter potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 First seabreeze of the spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 lol at the modeled 2m temps for this afternoon. Phantom 18z mega inversions on the NAM and GFS. Take'em up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: And if the EPS is right, cutter potential. Got to play with fire... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2017 Author Share Posted February 21, 2017 it's interesting ... the individual GEFs members also supports the continued sore butt look for the eastern 1/3 of N/A (south of the 50th), despite the -EPO. you can tell by looping each one that the 'base-line' pattern still wants outside sliders along the WC...right out to the end of week two; and they are doing that while on whole, the mean drills the EPO down to some -2 standard deviations. yesterday I postulated that as the EPO descends...eventually, the trough might broaden and force a last sort of gasp of winter into the east (as such a structure would mean positioning the storm track east and bringing cold with it in time...). as has been the case on numerous times since ...Halloween for that matter, whenever anyone dares formulate a cogent hypothesis for deterministic weather, the atmosphere in the models [deliberately] contrives some fercockta look that is on purpose inserting antithetical inches deeper into said butts. Ha ha. yeah, yeah. we said yesterday - also - that it's possible that the EPO dips and rises over the next 10 days, ...and down stream structural changes don't occur, true. Hence the word might. in which case, it's another opportunity to get much need snows into the elevations of the west that service res' and rivers for spring and summer. someone does benefit from our loss as an upshot. we'll see. not that anyone asked but ... for me, 70 until next October? couldn't be happier. oh, I follow the charts and sh*t just because I'm into the subject matter, and if there's a run in with winter again I'm sure i'll be sipping from the hypocrisy goblet ... but, my expectations are already turned. this year, despite somehow getting blind lucky with snow totals (when considering the pattern history(s)), really is uniquely designed to just sort of not care... heh. So, I'm already dreaming about disk golf, and long cycling rides, and the beach, ...crispy towering cu, and the reams of disgruntled posting content starring how several weather in NE is worthless so don't bother even logging in... as x town is getting hammered by golf balls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2017 Author Share Posted February 21, 2017 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: lol at the modeled 2m temps for this afternoon. Phantom 18z mega inversions on the NAM and GFS. Take'em up. yeah... I've noticed this about early warm ups. Back in the 1990s when dino's roamed ... it was known that machine derived guidance was tinted ever more toward climatology for ever additional day. By the time you got to D5, a sprawling ridge with 850's of +10C, on a wistful WSW well-mixed continental wind in late February was a slam dunk to at 15 F to the MOS. Is that still the case though? Because it definitely seems like these product are truncating the adiabats like 200 mb above surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 55 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: And if the EPS is right, cutter potential. Seems like some nice swfe thumps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Seems like some nice swfe thumps For Quebec City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: yeah... I've noticed this about early warm ups. Back in the 1990s when dino's roamed ... it was known that machine derived guidance was tinted ever more toward climatology for ever additional day. By the time you got to D5, a sprawling ridge with 850's of +10C, on a wistful WSW well-mixed continental wind in late February was a slam dunk to at 15 F to the MOS. Is that still the case though? Because it definitely seems like these product are truncating the adiabats like 200 mb above surface. This is what the 6z GFS has for a 12hr forecast here valid 18z. It's currently a little after 10am and I'm already at 34F with full sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: This is what the 6z GFS has for a 12hr forecast here valid 18z. It's currently a little after 10am and I'm already at 34F with full sun. NAM seems better 37 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: This is what the 6z GFS has for a 12hr forecast here valid 18z. It's currently a little after 10am and I'm already at 34F with full sun. HRRR is doing it too. Here is the 14z run. Not ideal mixing today, but this map is ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 14 minutes ago, wx2fish said: HRRR is doing it too. Here is the 14z run. Not ideal mixing today, but this map is ridiculous Ohio Valley furnace FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 13 minutes ago, wx2fish said: HRRR is doing it too. Here is the 14z run. Not ideal mixing today, but this map is ridiculous Yeah...looks like they're all doing it. It seems when mixing is poor the models get a little overzealous with the inversion in the afternoon when it's sunny, shallow, and over snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Going forward next week and beyond certainly looks like quite a bit of snowy potential 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: And if the EPS is right, cutter potential. Poking the hornets nest. 41 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Seems like some nice swfe thumps 41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: For Quebec City. Spraying gasoline on the hornets nest...Match in-hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 48 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: For Quebec City. And if EPS is incorrect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 I'm fine if it ends now...that 10 days in Feb. satiated me. Pumped about prospects for next winter, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 I highly doubt we are "done" anyway. And to avoid the subjective semantics, I'll define "done" as a minimum of advisory snowfall criteria. Lots of cold in Canada...even if the west has a trough, doesn't mean we can't get a big system. Just increases the cutter chance. But also keep the cold lurking and the threat may be high as the bowling league starts warming up as we go through the month. Early on, it's still a tighter longwave winter gradient, but that probably starts relaxing at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I highly doubt we are "done" anyway. And to avoid the subjective semantics, I'll define "done" as a minimum of advisory snowfall criteria. Lots of cold in Canada...even if the west has a trough, doesn't mean we can't get a big system. Just increases the cutter chance. But also keep the cold lurking and the threat may be high as the bowling league starts warming up as we go through the month. Early on, it's still a tighter longwave winter gradient, but that probably starts relaxing at some point. I agree ....I think I'll get double digits additional....just saying, been decent as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Pumped about prospects for next winter, too. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Low-topped squall line possible Saturday!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I agree ....I think I'll get double digits additional....just saying, been decent as is. And this is about what most pro's felt about the winter coming in. Average to slightly above average snowfall for season, looks like we end up right about there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Just now, TheBudMan said: And this is about what most pro's felt about the winter coming in. Average to slightly above average snowfall for season, looks like we end up right about there. climo AMOUT , temps AN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 People in the Plains that are tip toeing through the tulips are gonna get a nice run to end winter. I'd feel pretty darn good there..esp nrn Plains..MSP etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 There hasn't been one La Niña that hasn't brought accumulating snow in SNE in Morch or April. That alone, says it's not over despite what a few mets and weenies here have posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 It's not over. It's 2/21 for goodness sake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 Parade of cutters on the 12z guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: It's not over. It's 2/21 for goodness sake! I know, I don't get some of the post saying its over, Its not by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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