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Model Mayhem V


Typhoon Tip

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5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Chatham is 28.9". HYA is alot less but its prob due to under reporting or missing data. A 20-30" general avg swath through the cape is about right. 

Where do you get the 28.9" figure from Chatham?  I looked at the coop data available here and it had these figures:

Nov 0.0

Dec 0.5

Jan 11.2

Feb 8.2

That's 19.9". 

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If an astute observers out there ... you should know that -PNA/-EPOs can be great for winter fair.  

Other times...?  not so much.

Perhaps this will be one of those eras where the EPO ridging sort of biases slightly west, leading to a natural mass-field depression/teleconnector minimum somewhere in the Rockies to High Plains, such as the models are indicating for this week.

But, here's what sometimes happens; the pattern can sometimes be 'self modulating'... as was certainly shown so in Feb, 2015 (though this is by no means any sort of formal comparison with that 1/450 year month). The cold builds into Canada and then spills south and has a way of sort of influencing the jet structures around it, and the trough broadens from the west toward the E. The catch is ...the cold has to keep loading; it can't come in one shot and expect that sort of modulation. It keeps loading and spreading and the eventually... the trough broadens.

I actually do see some of that tendency happening in the present guidance. 

I don't mess with -EPOs.  Winter can reload with a vengeance all the way through the Ides of March for that matter, which is essentially still a month's worth on the polar side of the equinox.

We'll see...  (18z GFS puts down an advisory snow storm in 7.5 days... all you gotta do is get the ambient polar boundary S of you with a -EPO and it's game over for tulip worshiping).

In the mean time... I am looking forward to a challenge.  Can I see 70 pop on the thermometer with snow patches still in the fields. I've seen that before, but it' usually after a late winter and closer to Easter.

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49 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If an astute observers out there ... you should know that -PNA/-EPOs can be great for winter fair.  

Other times...?  not so much.

Perhaps this will be one of those eras where the EPO ridging sort of biases slightly west, leading to a natural mass-field depression/teleconnector minimum somewhere in the Rockies to High Plains, such as the models are indicating for this week.

But, here's what sometimes happens; the pattern can sometimes be 'self modulating'... as was certainly shown so in Feb, 2015 (though this is by no means any sort of formal comparison with that 1/450 year month). The cold builds into Canada and then spills south and has a way of sort of influencing the jet structures around it, and the trough broadens from the west toward the E. The catch is ...the cold has to keep loading; it can't come in one shot and expect that sort of modulation. It keeps loading and spreading and the eventually... the trough broadens.

I actually do see some of that tendency happening in the present guidance. 

I don't mess with -EPOs.  Winter can reload with a vengeance all the way through the Ides of March for that matter, which is essentially still a month's worth on the polar side of the equinox.

We'll see...  (18z GFS puts down an advisory snow storm in 7.5 days... all you gotta do is get the ambient polar boundary S of you with a -EPO and it's game over for tulip worshiping).

In the mean time... I am looking forward to a challenge.  Can I see 70 pop on the thermometer with snow patches still in the fields. I've seen that before, but it' usually after a late winter and closer to Easter.

I bet you can see 70 weenies popping across your face 

 

That being said.. we seem to be coming in model agreement of a 7-10 day window of winters final innuendo with cold and well timed snow threats before a total and early flip to warm spring/ early summer by about Morch 20 onwards. 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If an astute observers out there ... you should know that -PNA/-EPOs can be great for winter fair.  

Other times...?  not so much.

Perhaps this will be one of those eras where the EPO ridging sort of biases slightly west, leading to a natural mass-field depression/teleconnector minimum somewhere in the Rockies to High Plains, such as the models are indicating for this week.

But, here's what sometimes happens; the pattern can sometimes be 'self modulating'... as was certainly shown so in Feb, 2015 (though this is by no means any sort of formal comparison with that 1/450 year month). The cold builds into Canada and then spills south and has a way of sort of influencing the jet structures around it, and the trough broadens from the west toward the E. The catch is ...the cold has to keep loading; it can't come in one shot and expect that sort of modulation. It keeps loading and spreading and the eventually... the trough broadens.

I actually do see some of that tendency happening in the present guidance. 

I don't mess with -EPOs.  Winter can reload with a vengeance all the way through the Ides of March for that matter, which is essentially still a month's worth on the polar side of the equinox.

We'll see...  (18z GFS puts down an advisory snow storm in 7.5 days... all you gotta do is get the ambient polar boundary S of you with a -EPO and it's game over for tulip worshiping).

In the mean time... I am looking forward to a challenge.  Can I see 70 pop on the thermometer with snow patches still in the fields. I've seen that before, but it' usually after a late winter and closer to Easter.

I distinctly remember low 70s in late March 1993 in S NH with a lot of snow still on the ground.

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

I distinctly remember low 70s in late March 1993 in S NH with a lot of snow still on the ground.

You are correct.  4 of us were up in Jackman, ME during that time sledding.  By noon we had our jackets off, no gloves on, and helmet shields wide open, riding on trails that were covered by feet of snow..but soft and sloppy as could be with temps at 70 degrees.  Something you never forget!

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11 hours ago, dendrite said:

Jesus H....I knew it was bad down there, but I just noticed 0.7" so far at BWI. Ouch.

While you were doing naked snow angels, DC was breaking out the banana hammocks.

10 hours ago, snowgeek said:

I grew up in Baltimore. .7" woulda made me crazy!  I wonder what their record low season is? We were in the NW suburbs so I think we averaged like 26" or something. 

IAD may set a record low snowfall this season. 

8 hours ago, MetHerb said:

I took a look at the numbers for Woods Hole and Chatham and just by eyeballing it, it looks like between 22-35" to me.

CHH and HYA coops have 19.9" and 33.7" respectively so far.

3 hours ago, dendrite said:

I distinctly remember low 70s in late March 1993 in S NH with a lot of snow still on the ground.

 

57 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You are correct.  4 of us were up in Jackman, ME during that time sledding.  By noon we had our jackets off, no gloves on, and helmet shields wide open, riding on trails that were covered by feet of snow..but soft and sloppy as could be with temps at 70 degrees.  Something you never forget!

Yes. We were just looking this up the other day, related to the snow depth record. Jackman's record depth was that season and they managed to check a 70 spot up on a day they still had 2 feet of snow on the ground officially.

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7 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

You are correct.  4 of us were up in Jackman, ME during that time sledding.  By noon we had our jackets off, no gloves on, and helmet shields wide open, riding on trails that were covered by feet of snow..but soft and sloppy as could be with temps at 70 degrees.  Something you never forget!

Were people's pants off too?

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