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Model Mayhem V


Typhoon Tip

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I can't even fathom that for winter. I had more than that in a lousy sleet storm. 0.7" is a boring squall or a front ending as a bit of snow or a failed SWFE that drops a little glop and then an inch of rain. Zero point freakin seven inches. Gah.

Yeah it's a an hour or two of snow showers. It almost seems incomprehensible. Whomever lives there needs to get out

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4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I can't even fathom that for winter. I had more than that in a lousy sleet storm. 0.7" is a boring squall or a front ending as a bit of snow or a failed SWFE that drops a little glop and then an inch of rain. Zero point freakin seven inches. Gah.

Think about how long of a season winter is, even down there..without something interesting. Dear God.  

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1 hour ago, MetHerb said:

I disagree.  I delivered 180 gallons of syrup to Charlotte in January and had to drive from there up through the DC area and had to deal with hundreds of miles of snow covered roads through areas that had more snow than I had had up until that point.  I would NOT say that it never showed up.  That was a big storm for them.

I missed that by about 50 miles. Only managed a coating in that early January storm. 

37 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Jesus H....I knew it was bad down there, but I just noticed 0.7" so far at BWI. Ouch.

DC can't be too far off. They missed the early January storm. They may have gotten something in late January while I was traveling for work.  An inch or less seems about right. Maybe 1.2"?

 It's funny. I never thought I could handle a snowless winter, but when you have zero chance, you focus on other things and there is little disappointment if a storm misses. 

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38 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I can't even fathom that for winter. I had more than that in a lousy sleet storm. 0.7" is a boring squall or a front ending as a bit of snow or a failed SWFE that drops a little glop and then an inch of rain. Zero point freakin seven inches. Gah.

Yeah that's actually incredible to me.  

I mean you can get that in diamond dust on a cold night with some moisture.  

Then again, last year up here we couldn't even get 3"+ to fall all at once even on Mansfield when this year every passing vorticity max can fart that out in 3 hours.  

I remember being so excited for a couple 4" events in April.  This year if it's not a multi-day total of 18-36" on the mountain, it's a meh system.

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah that's actually incredible to me.  

I mean you can get that in diamond dust on a cold night with some moisture.  

Then again, last year up here we couldn't even get 3"+ to fall all at once even on Mansfield when this year every passing vorticity max can fart that out in 3 hours.  

I remember being so excited for a couple 4" events in April.  This year if it's not a multi-day total of 18-36" on the mountain, it's a meh system.

They play golf

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2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Ok fair enough.  I just felt like he got attacked for saying what the ensemble showed.   This winter has been so back and forth..who knows what's ahead...anything past 5-6 days has been tough to see this year it seems.  Many conflicting signals it seems. 

 

Nah, no attacks just busting his chops since he wears the biggest snow goggles in nyc. With that said, sure it can technically snow over his fanny until April...nobody knows what will happen but prolonged days of 20s, a good nao blocking with big west ridge pattern, does not seem to be walking through the door. For them, even for us, it is about adding to the totals. A 4" snowfall being washed away in hours is considered a net gain, where as it would not have last month. 

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

I can't even fathom that for winter. I had more than that in a lousy sleet storm. 0.7" is a boring squall or a front ending as a bit of snow or a failed SWFE that drops a little glop and then an inch of rain. Zero point freakin seven inches. Gah.

Just as bad...Chicago has seen essentially zero snow since mid-December. :(

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5 hours ago, Snow88 said:

I'm bumping this when it snows again. Blocking is showing up on the gefs.

Winter isn't even close to be done yet.

It's over for everyone south of New England. I know, you don't give up for NYC until April 15th, but stick a fork in it, it's done, New England is a different story

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31 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

We have had 40" on the season already, I think another storm or two could bring it up to 50" and I would call that a good season.  I like the March 2nd storm on the GFS, that looks quite intense.

lol. HYA averages like 16" from 1980-2010 according to noaa. Chatham is 28". So 50" at HYA is not a "good season" it is a "miracle season". 

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9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

IMG_20170220_152302.jpg

Cape is 35" on avg I think so anything else is gravy for us. We could be done for the winter but I think we get one more event probably a smaller size one in early March. 

Edit: Hyannis avg is actually 28.9 it's 35 more toward wareham and Plymouth 

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6 minutes ago, Diggiebot said:

Cape is 35" on avg I think so anything else is gravy for us. We could be done for the winter but I think we get one more event probably a smaller size one in early March. 

Edit: Hyannis avg is actually 28.9 it's 35 more toward wareham and Plymouth 

Chatham is 28.9". HYA is alot less but its prob due to under reporting or missing data. A 20-30" general avg swath through the cape is about right. 

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