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Model Mayhem V


Typhoon Tip

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Boring week coming up for winter enthusiasts. Hopefully things get interesting again as we head into March. Looks like this week is definitely a cutter and then we may even have one more before it gets more favorable...but that Feb 28-Mar 1 period is still far enough out that anything can happen. I do like the general look into early March...big time Bering ridging with the PV trying to get into N Hudson Bay. So there should be cold lurking around. I'd prefer the ridge to be a little east, but it's less of an issue as we go more into bowling season. 

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38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Boring week coming up for winter enthusiasts. Hopefully things get interesting again as we head into March. Looks like this week is definitely a cutter and then we may even have one more before it gets more favorable...but that Feb 28-Mar 1 period is still far enough out that anything can happen. I do like the general look into early March...big time Bering ridging with the PV trying to get into N Hudson Bay. So there should be cold lurking around. I'd prefer the ridge to be a little east, but it's less of an issue as we go more into bowling season. 

So why did Scoots say winter was over?

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Slightly interesting development on the 12z gfs albeit mostly for NNE and here. Pops a secondary in the GOM. First time it's done that rather than a full fledge cutter on previous runs. Grasping I know but it's better than nothing. Keeps frozen a little longer for areas mentioned. Now back to early golf talk.

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1 hour ago, Hazey said:

Slightly interesting development on the 12z gfs albeit mostly for NNE and here. Pops a secondary in the GOM. First time it's done that rather than a full fledge cutter on previous runs. Grasping I know but it's better than nothing. Keeps frozen a little longer for areas mentioned. Now back to early golf talk.

Let's see if the Euro shows the secondary in the GOM?  

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Eh' things could end up trending more interesting for D 7-10 period, at least for N & interior peeps. 


Agreed. If it follows the winter theme, things have had a tendency to "dampen out" and shift east some as we get closer in. Not that this stretch will follow suit but that has happened in the past.
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4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Hello. What are your thoughts on March? Do you think we may have another small period of snowfall opportunity or will the negative PNA dominate?

Yeah perhaps, but it's not the best pattern. It's one that has a cutter risk with no +PNA and little blocking to help. Probably similar to earlier this winter. Could be fun for the Plains, but I don't feel great about here. You're basically looking to time things well in order to get a good period of winter. 

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah perhaps, but it's not the best pattern. It's one that has a cutter risk with no +PNA and little blocking to help. Probably similar to earlier this winter. Could be fun for the Plains, but I don't feel great about here. You're basically looking to time things well in order to get a good period of winter. 

Thanks. Perhaps we luck out with a swfe front ended similar to late December.

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