Model Mayhem V

[ORH_wxman]

12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Well, only so much a swfe can produce but yea. For big events though, I will take the thick original Miller A, much prefer it over it's watered down cousin B. 

You'd prob be surprised how much uglier the Danbury big snow climo looks without Miller Bs.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You'd prob be surprised how much uglier the Danbury big snow climo looks without Miller Bs.

Of course. Snow is snow, but removing any "type" will crush the climo regardless. I bet if we remove swfe it would be just as bad if not more than Miller Bs. On Bs, 1 in 4 of them can get far enough back this way for big totals, which obviously makes up ground for the fringed ones. but with swfe, it is a lock for 6-8", they occur more frequently as well. 

Miller As have there flaws but I am close to NYC on longtitude which is highly important with Bs....And I cant see the biggest storms for NYC of the B variety. 

[ORH_wxman]

29 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Of course. Snow is snow, but removing any "type" will crush the climo regardless. I bet if we remove swfe it would be just as bad if not more than Miller Bs. On Bs, 1 in 4 of them can get far enough back this way for big totals, which obviously makes up ground for the fringed ones. but with swfe, it is a lock for 6-8", they occur more frequently as well. 

Miller As have there flaws but I am close to NYC on longtitude which is highly important with Bs....And I cant see the biggest storms for NYC of the B variety. 

I'm talking climo of double digits when I say "big snow climo"...SWFE won't give you any of those.

 

You start eliminating storms like Feb 2013, January 2011, Xmas 2002, Feb 2001, etc. No doubt that eastern New England benefits more from miller Bs but I'm not convinced Miller As are better for Danbury...they might be, but I suspect it's pretty darn close. Miller As can fringe you like last year (or whiff like 2010 multiple times) Several of those storms you did significantly better than NYC due to a little extra longitude and a lot more latitude....latitude is very big in Miller B's too (esp the huggers like Xmas 2002 and Feb '01)...it isn't just longitude.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

41 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm talking climo of double digits when I say "big snow climo"...SWFE won't give you any of those.

 

You start eliminating storms like Feb 2013, January 2011, Xmas 2002, Feb 2001, etc. No doubt that eastern New England benefits more from miller Bs but I'm not convinced Miller As are better for Danbury...they might be, but I suspect it's pretty darn close. Miller As can fringe you like last year (or whiff like 2010 multiple times) Several of those storms you did significantly better than NYC due to a little extra longitude and a lot more latitude....latitude is very big in Miller B's too (esp the huggers like Xmas 2002 and Feb '01)...it isn't just longitude.

It could be close but I doubt. Would be hard to figure out since quite a few are hybrids, though. 

[CoastalWx]

2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It could be close but I doubt. Would be hard to figure out since quite a few are hybrids, though. 

Your location in SW CT also sort of hurts in SWFE. You're prone to mid level taint. How good did  you do in 07-08 and 08-09?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Your location in SW CT also sort of hurts in SWFE. You're prone to mid level taint. How good did  you do in 07-08 and 08-09?

Iirc, 07/08 had a steep gradient in Fairfield county. Had around 40-45" here while the immediate coast struggled to hit double digits. 08/09 was more uniform in the county, hit 50" here which is about avg. 

There is a difference between places like Stamford/Greenwich vs Danbury/New Fairfield. Its not quite Hartford Death Valley vs Tolland Alps but some winters the 30 mile + 500-600ft elevation matters. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Your location in SW CT also sort of hurts in SWFE. You're prone to mid level taint. How good did  you do in 07-08 and 08-09?

Since I started this argument, I can say both of those years were decent up here with 08/09 as a favorite. Although coastals are capable of producing more prodigious snows,  there is a certain comfort zone inherent with the associated climatological expectations of a SWFE in WNE.  I cannot speak for W CT but we do pretty well in NW MA and S VT despite the brief taint that often occurs in the waning hours of such systems. 

[ORH_wxman]

Feb 25 system not improving at all...getting more cutterish looking on guidance. Still time though for improvements.

[EastonSN+]

10 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Iirc, 07/08 had a steep gradient in Fairfield county. Had around 40-45" here while the immediate coast struggled to hit double digits. 08/09 was more uniform in the county, hit 50" here which is about avg. 

There is a difference between places like Stamford/Greenwich vs Danbury/New Fairfield. Its not quite Hartford Death Valley vs Tolland Alps but some winters the 30 mile + 500-600ft elevation matters. 

Hi. I am a coasty in Fairfield county and used to live in Norwalk for years and went to School in Danbury. This is 100% correct 07/08 we ended up with only 20 inches but 08/09 we ended up with 42 (130% of average). Danbury does much better in SWFE due to not only their lattitude but also their ELEVATION. The Litchfield hills run down through Danbury and that helps them a lot. One interesting thing that I have learned by looking at archives is the further west u are in CT the better off you are in coastals. Central and eastern CT dry slot a lot. Why is this the case? Is this because they are usually due north of the low and that is where subsidence usually sets up? Look at all coastals from 1960s onwards. This is also why NYC does far better than Hartford and Providence on these type of storms.

[JC-CT]

10 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

some winters the 30 mile + 500-600ft elevation matters. 

Ya think lol

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

One interesting thing that I have learned by looking at archives is the further west u are in CT the better off you are in coastals. Central and eastern CT dry slot a lot.

Prepare to be skewered by west posters.

Anyway that's pretty anecdotal. The best place to be for coastals in the ridiculous last 6 years has been eastern CT, probably closer to the RI border where Ginx is and north.

The storm track doesn't have a discernable preference within 30 miles over time, at least from what I can tell.

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Prepare to be skewered by west posters.

Anyway that's pretty anecdotal. The best place to be for coastals in the ridiculous last 6 years has been eastern CT, probably closer to the RI border where Ginx is and north.

The storm track doesn't have a discernable preference within 30 miles over time, at least from what I can tell.

I agree on this for the last 5 winters. But if u look at the ku book going back to the 1948 storm the vast majority do drop more the further west u are. I am definitely not looking for trouble just want to learn since I live further east now and am a bit concerned (albeit still in Fairfield County).

I work on wall street also so experienced this first hand on storms in the past. The late January 2011 storm is a good case.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

I agree on this for the last 5 winters. But if u look at the ku book going back to the 1948 storm the vast majority do drop more the further west u are. I am definitely not looking for trouble just want to learn since I live further east now and am a bit concerned (albeit still in Fairfield County).

I work on wall street also so experienced this first hand on storms in the past. The late January 2011 storm is a good case.

Central CT did well in Jan 11

[Damage In Tolland]

Day 11-15 continue to look solid

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Day 11-15 continue to look solid

Looks cutter-ish verbatim. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Central CT did well in Jan 11

Yeah I complety disagree NYC is better than Hartford and Providence. In fact the opposite is true for large snow events. SE CT has the chance of mixing or not getting into the developing CCB that eventually nails areas further north. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

16 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Ya think lol

Thank you Captain Pick Apart Posts. Obviously, the opposite is true too. The 30miles north hurt in Jan16, was the difference between 6" and 16". 

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Thank you Captain Pick Apart Posts. Obviously, the opposite is true too. The 30miles north hurt in Jan16, was the difference between 6" and 16". 

Captain PAP at your service

[jbenedet]

Let's see if we can thread more needles up here with this ugly pattern, by producing more of our own cold.

Going forward, I have to believe this bodes well for low level CAD, and overperforming surface HP's:

http://www.weather.gov/nerfc/snow

[LaxSki]

SWFE are usually better for us in West Dover Vt. They bring moderate amounts of Snow with out the strong winds. Much better for skiing no wind holds and wind packed powder. I gladly would take a parade of these storms all winter long.Also makes our drive home to Long Island easier as they usually rain or do not receive nearly as much snow!!

[JC-CT]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I complety disagree NYC is better than Hartford and Providence. In fact the opposite is true for large snow events. SE CT has the chance of mixing or not getting into the developing CCB that eventually nails areas further north. 

I think so too, they are inland climate in a lot of ways, except for temps right along the coast. There is a reason why the plains states might get a lot of snow but they rarely have the big ones like New England does.

SE CT / SE RI many times will have the most LE but the least snow, it's a temp thing.

[ORH_wxman]

36 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I agree on this for the last 5 winters. But if u look at the ku book going back to the 1948 storm the vast majority do drop more the further west u are. I am definitely not looking for trouble just want to learn since I live further east now and am a bit concerned (albeit still in Fairfield County).

I work on wall street also so experienced this first hand on storms in the past. The late January 2011 storm is a good case.

The KU book is naturally going to limit your storm sample to, well, KU events. Events that crushed the I-95 corridor...when you get DC-Philly-NYC centric, it will tend to favor areas like SW CT. You won't see storms like March 2001 in there...or hell, even a storm like December 1961 doesn't make it despite giving widespread 15-20 inches over E SNE...it goes in the "near miss" category because very little snow fell southwest of there. 

For every coastal storm that dryslotted PVD, you can probably find one that hammered them and screwed SW CT. Our memories tend to be selective so I don't trust the anecdotal arguments. Even my own anecdotal arguments I don't trust and will go back and find data to back them up....and I usually have a very good memory on this stuff. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Feb 25 system not improving at all...getting more cutterish looking on guidance. Still time though for improvements.

Feb is probably finished....great first half, dud second half.

Very good month in the aggregate.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I knew all I needed to know about current storm prospects when I was met with a climo discussion in the model mayhem thread.

[CT Valley Snowman]

Referring back to an earlier post, I would argue that the difference between the Fairfield County shoreline and the Danbury region is probably a bit larger than the difference between the Connecticut River Valley and Tolland.   Kevin has been on a very nice streak in recent years but many of his succeses have been due to his further east longitude and not necessarily elevation.  His elevation probably statistically over a longer period of time probably gives him an extra 12-15 per season compared to a location with a similiar latitude  in the valley like BDL, but the difference between a BDR and DXR is probably more like 16+ The valley shadowing, downsloping, and marginal temp elevation dependent events are definitely real but over time probably dont equate to quite the same deficit effects as the shoreline, wind off the water,  and vunerability to change to rain and their further south latitude.  

[CoastalWx]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I knew all I needed to know about current storm prospects when I was met with a climo discussion in the model mayhem thread.

Yeah it's done I think. Hopefully March is ok. 

[CT Valley Snowman]

I need about another 6 inches to get to climo. even with a warmer second half of February I still like the odds of a storm or two producing in the first half of March.  

[EastonSN+]

41 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

Referring back to an earlier post, I would argue that the difference between the Fairfield County shoreline and the Danbury region is probably a bit larger than the difference between the Connecticut River Valley and Tolland.   Kevin has been on a very nice streak in recent years but many of his succeses have been due to his further east longitude and not necessarily elevation.  His elevation probably statistically over a longer period of time probably gives him an extra 12-15 per season compared to a location with a similiar latitude  in the valley like BDL, but the difference between a BDR and DXR is probably more like 16+ The valley shadowing, downsloping, and marginal temp elevation dependent events are definitely real but over time probably dont equate to quite the same deficit effects as the shoreline, wind off the water,  and vunerability to change to rain and their further south latitude.  

Perhaps. However all should keep in mind that the BDR measurement is technically in Stratford east of Bridgeport AND they drastically under report (almost criminally). Case in point blizzard if 96 they reported 15 inches and almost every town around them in Fairfield  county reported 27! Nemo they only reported 30 while Fairfield WEST of them reported 35.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

Referring back to an earlier post, I would argue that the difference between the Fairfield County shoreline and the Danbury region is probably a bit larger than the difference between the Connecticut River Valley and Tolland.   Kevin has been on a very nice streak in recent years but many of his succeses have been due to his further east longitude and not necessarily elevation.  His elevation probably statistically over a longer period of time probably gives him an extra 12-15 per season compared to a location with a similiar latitude  in the valley like BDL, but the difference between a BDR and DXR is probably more like 16+ The valley shadowing, downsloping, and marginal temp elevation dependent events are definitely real but over time probably dont equate to quite the same deficit effects as the shoreline, wind off the water,  and vunerability to change to rain and their further south latitude.  

It's the big nor'easters that really hurt the valley. Dec 92 type storms where the hills to west and east get feet and the down sloping gives them half the qpf with dim sun at times. Obviously elevation helps in marginal events, but there's usually not that many of those each year. More often than not it's those 1-3 or 2-4 inch events like we had in October when I had 1.9" and they had zero. Any type of strong NE or E flow event is going to kill the valley. That Morch firehose storm is another example. Ryan had 6" and I had 22". Youre right though that this area seems to be just far enough south and east to catch most of the coastals. Just like ORH catches more than I do . I'm not a huge fan of swfe here. I'll always get snow, but always get the slot too. I'd prefer Miller B's all winter. Miller A's aren't nearly as rewarding here as Miller B's overall 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yea, once you get south of NYC, Miller As are better.