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Model Mayhem V


Typhoon Tip

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I'm still optimistic for NNE over the next week or so.  Look at the huge difference in sensible weather from the 12z GFS and GGEM runs for NNE.  

There's a good chance that one of these systems doesn't cut as shown and deepens enough for decent snowfall for at least the ski areas.

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9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Are the scores the same then? Seems like they are lower than several years ago or so. 

It actually continues to improve....but it's never been close to something like a 3-4 day forecast. Expectations are just different than they were 5+ years ago. We used to weenie tag people posting 144 hour storms on here...now people start threads for D6 threats.

 

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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Well that proves it's a case of weenies expecting more from living in the hi tech era. It does better yet the non statistical viewpoint is that it does not. 

I think an easy way to describe it is...think of the confidence in a 3 day forecast from 1987....that is about how you should feel on a 5 day forecast now.

I don't think many felt all that confident in 3 day forecasts in 1987, so you shouldn't feel any different on a 5 day forecast in 2017.

 

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Monday could actually be kind of a sneaky chilly day with the BDF.

 

But I'd watch Wednesday as a torch day too...we'll see. It's 6 days out, so it could change, but we may have a low to our north in Quebec trying to give us westerly flow with warm thicknesses. I think the period Feb 24-26 should be watched...could be a overrunning/SWFE type system if it goes right.

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