USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 The 18z GFS has a nice clipper moving through with a more than decent trough moving through, with a turn towards a negative tilt that trough could mean business as it hits the coastline. The GFS ensembles are pretty clear with the clipper some are south, some are weak, but most have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 On 2/26/2017 at 11:13 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Little critter bites on the 18z GFS, hour 120 Expand Kind of a growing signal for Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 On 2/26/2017 at 11:52 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: The 18z GFS has a nice clipper moving through with a more than decent trough moving through, with a turn towards a negative tilt that trough could mean business as it hits the coastline. The GFS ensembles are pretty clear with the clipper some are south, some are weak, but most have it. Expand Ha, nice weenie tag. When did you pick that up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 On 2/26/2017 at 11:13 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Little critter bites on the 18z GFS, hour 120 Expand Thats a good look at d5. Plus it helps that the cmc doesnt have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 On 2/26/2017 at 11:54 PM, Hoth said: Ha, nice weenie tag. When did you pick that up? Expand Didn't notice it until you did, lol, administrators must have done so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Ill say I deserve the weenie tag, I am a weenie. I love the weather, and storms drive me to get better at forecasting them and when to go all in versus not in. The past few weeks have been pretty nice weather wise, but lack of storms has got me going. I am ready for Friday already, I want snow. That H5 trough looks very nice right now on most models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 On 2/27/2017 at 12:00 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Didn't notice it until you did, lol, administrators must have done so Expand It's a good look for you, congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Nice duo of a +PNA ridge and a -NAO ridge over Greenland at the time of our Clipper, I think models will begin to agree on a good sized clipper impacting SNE on Friday. I am thinking this could trend in a very good direction with those teleconnections present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 On 2/27/2017 at 12:02 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It's a good look for you, congrats. Expand Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Would like to see euro latch onto clipper. It has it but well south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 On 2/26/2017 at 11:53 PM, weathafella said: Kind of a growing signal for Friday Expand Nah., just EPS and warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 On 2/27/2017 at 12:13 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Nah., just EPS and warmth Expand After next weekend cold may not be easy and snow while probably not done may be scarce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 On 2/27/2017 at 12:06 AM, ORH_wxman said: Would like to see euro latch onto clipper. It has it but well south. Expand Yeah.... nice little look on the GFS....would like to see the euro jump on board, otherwise, meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justaroofer Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 On 2/27/2017 at 12:02 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Ill say I deserve the weenie tag, I am a weenie. I love the weather, and storms drive me to get better at forecasting them and when to go all in versus not in. The past few weeks have been pretty nice weather wise, but lack of storms has got me going. I am ready for Friday already, I want snow. That H5 trough looks very nice right now on most models. Expand You are not a weenie USCAPEWEATHERRAF!! I've read you.. Listened to you.. You are a real Lad. You should know this. I'd be honored if you either posted a short story or even your enthusiasm for "Winter Reload".. If you wish, I mean. Never doubt yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Like Friday..convective snow squalls perhaps. Lapse rates are super steep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 On 2/26/2017 at 4:14 PM, dendrite said: Yeah...as Ray said the big cold shot comes next weekend. It's a potent shot as modeled right now, but it doesn't look anything like Mar 2007. There's still time for it to moderate a bit too, but regardless, it looks much colder and favorable going forward. Climo temps are steadily climbing now so a -15C airmass with good mixing in March can still get you up into the 30s. A favorable snow pattern that time of year reminds me of out west sometimes. 45-50F and warm sun one day and then pounding snow at 28F the next. Peak cover season is about kaput here barring some March madness so I'd prefer it plays out like that. Give me a bomb and then wipe it out in a few days. Expand Middlebury hit -20F in that Mar 2007 outbreak. Was wicked cold, and continued into April, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 On 2/27/2017 at 2:06 AM, nzucker said: Middlebury hit -20F in that Mar 2007 outbreak. Was wicked cold, and continued into April, too. Expand I remember one day we had a cheap early midnight high here, but the afternoon only got up to 5F with strong winds. That's about as cold as it gets for a week into March. I think -10F was my coldest min, but I don't recall going calm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Blocking on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 On 2/27/2017 at 3:34 AM, Snow88 said: Blocking on the way Expand Youve said this quite a few times this winter. If it happens, it is transient or short lived, could be enough though if we time it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 On 2/27/2017 at 1:34 AM, justaroofer said: You are not a weenie USCAPEWEATHERRAF!! I've read you.. Listened to you.. You are a real Lad. You should know this. I'd be honored if you either posted a short story or even your enthusiasm for "Winter Reload".. If you wish, I mean. Never doubt yourself. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 On 2/27/2017 at 4:22 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Youve said this quite a few times this winter. If it happens, it is transient or short lived, could be enough though if we time it right. Expand But this one doesn't look transient. It's a closed off high in Greenland not bootleg higher heights like recent "blocking" episodes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 On 2/27/2017 at 3:34 AM, Snow88 said: Blocking on the way Expand You are a broken record since November. Literally since November you have been calling for blocking and posting/hyping the uber long range operational GFS, give it up already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 On 2/27/2017 at 8:57 AM, snowman19 said: You are a broken record since November. Literally since November you have been calling for blocking and posting/hyping the uber long range operational GFS, give it up already Expand He's chief NYPD weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Gfs looks good pike north in Friday. Pretty consistent with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Euro still south. Concensus looks good for all of SNE to see snow. Euro looks great nrxtceeek too. I'd watch that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 On 2/27/2017 at 10:53 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Euro still south. Concensus looks good for all of SNE to see snow. Euro looks great nrxtceeek too. I'd watch that one Expand Agree. Nice cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Does blocking have the same results with changing wavelength as the season progresses? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 Thunder Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 On 2/27/2017 at 11:00 AM, dendrite said: Agree. Nice cutter. Expand Days 9-10 son Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2017 Share Posted February 27, 2017 On 2/27/2017 at 11:22 AM, weathafella said: Does blocking have the same results with changing wavelength as the season progresses? Expand It is still good to have it. It loses its luster a bit deeper into March but we've had some pretty big storm episodes in March with the aid of blocking. March 2001 was classic and so was March 2005 and March 2013. All very strong -NAO blocks. Deeper into the month and April it tends to matter less with shortening wavelengths. Like March 31-April 1, 1997 was a positive NAO and a West coast trough...normally you wouldn't forecast an epic storm in that setup. Pretty sure April '82 had no real blocking too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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