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Model Mayhem V


Typhoon Tip

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  On 2/26/2017 at 11:52 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

The 18z GFS has a nice clipper moving through with a more than decent trough moving through, with a turn towards a negative tilt that trough could mean business as it hits the coastline.  The GFS ensembles are pretty clear with the clipper some are south, some are weak, but most have it.

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Ha, nice weenie tag. When did you pick that up?

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Ill say I deserve the weenie tag, I am a weenie.  I love the weather, and storms drive me to get better at forecasting them and when to go all in versus not in.  The past few weeks have been pretty nice weather wise, but lack of storms has got me going.  I am ready for Friday already, I want snow.  That H5 trough looks very nice right now on most models.

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  On 2/27/2017 at 12:02 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Ill say I deserve the weenie tag, I am a weenie.  I love the weather, and storms drive me to get better at forecasting them and when to go all in versus not in.  The past few weeks have been pretty nice weather wise, but lack of storms has got me going.  I am ready for Friday already, I want snow.  That H5 trough looks very nice right now on most models.

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You are not a weenie USCAPEWEATHERRAF!!

I've read you..

Listened to you..

You are a real Lad.

You should know this. I'd be honored if you either posted a short story or even your enthusiasm for "Winter Reload"..

If you wish, I mean.

Never doubt yourself.

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  On 2/26/2017 at 4:14 PM, dendrite said:

Yeah...as Ray said the big cold shot comes next weekend. It's a potent shot as modeled right now, but it doesn't look anything like Mar 2007. There's still time for it to moderate a bit too, but regardless, it looks much colder and favorable going forward. Climo temps are steadily climbing now so a -15C airmass with good mixing in March can still get you up into the 30s. A favorable snow pattern that time of year reminds me of out west sometimes. 45-50F and warm sun one day and then pounding snow at 28F the next. Peak cover season is about kaput here barring some March madness so I'd prefer it plays out like that. Give me a bomb and then wipe it out in a few days. 

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Middlebury hit -20F in that Mar 2007 outbreak. Was wicked cold, and continued into April, too.

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  On 2/27/2017 at 2:06 AM, nzucker said:

Middlebury hit -20F in that Mar 2007 outbreak. Was wicked cold, and continued into April, too.

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I remember one day we had a cheap early midnight high here, but the afternoon only got up to 5F with strong winds. That's about as cold as it gets for a week into March. I think -10F was my coldest min, but I don't recall going calm.

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  On 2/27/2017 at 4:22 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Youve said this quite a few times this winter. If it happens, it is transient or short lived, could be enough though if we time it right. 

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But this one doesn't look transient. It's a closed off high in Greenland not bootleg higher heights like recent "blocking" episodes 

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  On 2/27/2017 at 11:22 AM, weathafella said:

Does blocking have the same results with changing wavelength as the season progresses?

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It is still good to have it. It loses its luster a bit deeper into March but we've had some pretty big storm episodes in March with the aid of blocking. March 2001 was classic and so was March 2005 and March 2013. All very strong -NAO blocks. Deeper into the month and April it tends to matter less with shortening wavelengths. Like March 31-April 1, 1997 was a positive NAO and a West coast trough...normally you wouldn't forecast an epic storm in that setup. Pretty sure April '82 had no real blocking too. 

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