Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 10 minutes ago, dryslot said: Modeling so far today pretty much shifting away or fringing from the CCB down in the NE areas, The Euro, cut back qpf as well over the region. Yea only 2-3 frogging feet you Mainiac lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 It's close enough that now-casting is utterly necessary ... lest we exercise in neolithic incompetence .. Having said that, - if the CCB misses east that writing's been on the wall all along. Collectively, a few here and there gave just homage to that possibility during the preceding days. However, sometimes... it's easier to just get lost in the weeds of what looks like the bigger deal, "cherry picking" positive signs and then losing track of some objectivity in doing so - which then lends to being "disappointed," when reality blows through the room of card houses.. This system never set well with me (not that anyone asked)... The reason being is the general WNW to ESE vector of the total trough constructs.. .Not often that anyone gets a blizzard on that sort of trajectory - in fact, I can't even think of any off hand. Truthfully, I didn't even see this front side WAA thump today as being part of this back four days ago when this got abruptly louder in the guidance tools. At the time, I figured it was either going to be a late blooming clip-on the coast (maybe more if it detonated quicker), or a four day exercise in tease futility. But... so be it as the time got into the end game this day's activity elucidated in the guidance. Fine. We are lucky in a sense ... And if the CCB does evolve to include eastern zones, that's just a rarity playing out. As we said yesterday: the baseline trajectory is still west to east, and unless this thing actively stalls ...it becomes difficult to envision things reaching back west. This thing really needs to detonated with extreme rapidity in order to do so in time. And that sort of detail probably needs to be now-casted addtionally - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Yea only 2-3 frogging feet you Mainiac lol lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: Been all rain here the past few hours. BOS actually dropped to 34. Once this stuff moves in I will probably flip. What's your call for BOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, BRSno said: What's your call for BOS? Right now I'll go 8-14" Low level temps are colder than modeled the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Why does OKX have HWW out and BOX has nothing except E areas? Someone is going to be very right or very wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Look at those BOOMERS in W V. Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, DomNH said: Yeah, I think this worth mentioning. I don't think we'll see crazy 15:1 or better ratios anywhere but I can see a little better than 10:1 (like 11-12:1) as you go farther N and W from Boston. I said it earlier but the soundings look pretty good and there is decent lift in the DGZ. Here's the thing and peeps should remember previous storms. This crashes fast, ULL high ratio stuff. Big lift in the conveyor belt , the kind of stuff that can put down some great rates. Perhaps NE mass SNH Maine get smoked besides qpf queen stuff. Looks good in that zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Can anyone post the RPM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Look at those BOOMERS in W V. Nice Pretty sure the radar is wonky http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=RLX-N1Q-0-24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Going 6-10 in my hood (Brookline) just outside of Boston city line... 4-6 from WAA today, 2-4 from transition / CCB overnight into Monday afternoon. Relatively conservative but I think we need a dramatically improved nowcast to reverse the east ticks we've seen since yesterday. Between the warm 925Ts (and extrapolating from rain already reported in Boston) and missing the bulk of the CCB, I don't think I can go higher. And doubt this 4am NWS map verifies (did not see it posted earlier), I'd love to be wrong: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 I like Mt. Tolland to pull a 6 Spot in this storm HFD 4-5 BDL 5 ORH 8 BOS (logan) 6 RAY 10 ME 11 TAN 3. PVD 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 10 minutes ago, yuki neko said: Pretty sure the radar is wonky http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=RLX-N1Q-0-24 Thought it was legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 46 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Going 6-10 in my hood (Brookline) just outside of Boston city line... 4-6 from WAA today, 2-4 from transition / CCB overnight into Monday afternoon. Relatively conservative but I think we need a dramatically improved nowcast to reverse the east ticks we've seen since yesterday. Between the warm 925Ts (and extrapolating from rain already reported in Boston) and missing the bulk of the CCB, I don't think I can go higher. And doubt this 4am NWS map verifies (did not see it posted earlier), I'd love to be wrong: Not sure where they got that map from. Even 00z models weren't showing this much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 15 minutes ago, Amped said: Not sure where they got that map from. Even 00z models weren't showing this much. BOX Gone Wild has been a common theme this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Final Call: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/02/2-13-17-final-call.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Expecting BOX to significantly revise downward for 4pm, sticking with 6-10" for Boston and metro west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 It takes longer to come out than the euro, but here's the 12z hires RGEM...total QPF and then snow QPF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 18z NAM is a clean whiff basically on any CCB for E MA. It's definitely been the most pessimistic model for the past 36 hours on that front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 18Z Nam bumped qpf back up this run and jacks PWM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: 18z NAM is a clean whiff basically on any CCB for E MA. It's definitely been the most pessimistic model for the past 36 hours on that front. That model can be hot and cold. Generally an outlier and most progressive from anything I've seen. Should be clipped at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: 18Z Nam bumped qpf back up this run and jacks PWM Good to hear. Appreciate your analysis on this system the past 4 days, btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, tunafish said: Good to hear. Appreciate your analysis on this system the past 4 days, btw. 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: We like and we take. Second. As an outsider, it's been great to hear your analysis dryslot. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 NWS Gray just posted blizzard warnings for mid coast Maine. Going to be an interesting storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amc Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 14 minutes ago, MainePhotog said: NWS Gray just posted blizzard warnings for mid coast Maine. Going to be an interesting storm. They dropped the Blizzard watch for Cumberland, I'm waiting to see what they say in the evening discussion update. I'm a little bummed at that, but we'll see as we get into the winds if we actually get into Blizzard conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amc Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 New map from GYX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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