Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, dryslot said: Right into the Milinocket area Congrats tamarack. I'm not optimistic back here...just hoping for double digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 SREFs torch us (temp >32F) late overnight in MA http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_3z/srefloop.html#picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 10 minutes ago, dendrite said: Congrats tamarack. I'm not optimistic back here...just hoping for double digits. Why wouldn't you get 12"+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, medmax said: SREFs torch us (temp >32F) late overnight in MA http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_3z/srefloop.html#picture SREFs are probably going wild and tossed as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 What a crush job the NAM is up in ME. Kuchie Kuchie Koo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 going 6 for here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Clips ext ern areas. But maybe the RGEM and GFS trend better which would be pretty sweet. In other words, the nam has trended to crap with the CCB and basically a WIFF For E MASS. It ends the storm around midnite even for LWM, MA. Hoping it wrong but the progressive trend of this thing and slower deepening are trends that need to be reversed on 12z guidance for E MA CCB to have legs still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: In other words, the nam has trended to crap with the CCB and basically a WIFF For E MASS. It ends the storm around midnite even for LWM, MA. Hoping it wrong but the progressive trend of this thing and slower deepening are trends that need to be reversed on 12z guidance for E MA CCB to have legs still. The NAM is one of the more progressive solutions, but it did tick SW with the mid level look. Basically because of the big shifts with that model...I'm not really weighing it too much until I see RGEM and GFS, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: SREFs are probably going wild and tossed as usual. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_9z/srefloop.html Most recent run looks a little more in-line with other guidance to my untrained eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The NAM is one of the more progressive solutions, but it did tick SW with the mid level look. Basically because of the big shifts with that model...I'm not really weighing it too much until I see RGEM and GFS, Its just something i would like to come on board inside 24 hrs now THE SLP is actually a bit SE and slower to deepen than 0z if you toggle on the HI RES , thru the overnite time frame. There was no wiggle room here in E mass so these small changes are significant , just regarding model output (not saying anything earth shattering i know) Its all about EURO as usual but other models need to at least hold there own, the slower deepening now has NAM/EURO support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Serious crush job for Halifax. The CCB just sits over Nova Scotia and rots. With winds over 60mph I doubt there will ever be a true accurate measurement of what fell. Our local EMO is telling people to be prepared for 2 days of being on our own. Getting nervous actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 If you don't like one of the Nam's, You can probably find one of the others that will work................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: If you don't like one of the Nam's, You can probably find one of the others that will work................ the 4km version gets some of a CCB (lite) going from 6z to 12z but it is evident in all the nam's that this is not deepening as rapidly. We will see this has a no cast element later tonite that still can't be denied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: the 4km version gets some of a CCB (lite) going from 6z to 12z but it is evident in all the nam's that this is not deepening as rapidly. Was 972-974 at 12z on 0z run, now its 980mb. Yeah it seems to be getting going a tic or two later, The question is, Is it right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yeah it seems to be getting going a tic or two later, The question is, Is it right? Euro did the same last nite so with Nam doing the same i would LEAN yes, it still deepens rapidly but its now 972 at 14z and not 964. But that matters much more for NE mass than you, obviously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Euro did the same last nite so with Nam doing the same i would LEAN yes, it still deepens rapidly but its now 972 at 14z and not 964. But that matters much more for NE mass than you, obviously That area is on the fence, Sooner obviously would be better, We will see how the models go today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 SWFE are generally pretty fast hitting, I'm curious as to why most forecasts have snow falling well into tonight here? Especially since this system appears to be moving right along. Does it slow down as it hits the coast and the secondary forms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: SWFE are generally pretty fast hitting, I'm curious as to why most forecasts have snow falling well into tonight here? Especially since this system appears to be moving right along. Does it slow down as it hits the coast and the secondary forms? NAM has it snowing here until 15z Monday...as it wraps around the back edge takes some time to move out. Obviously sooner for you not sure I buy it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 i'm good for at least 8" the question is do we do 10" only or 12+.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Bold predictions from me MPM. 8" Greenfield. 10" KORH 12" Hubb. 12" FIT. 13" BOS. 7" Scooter. 5" Ct Blizz. 10" Ginx. 8" KJerry. 9" KRay. 14" LWM. 16" Dendrite. 14" Dryslut. 19" MaineJay. 22" Tamarack. 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 My guess is 8 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just reviewing overnight stuff... little surprised by how bullish Box went 4am map given the uncertainty Monday... Expanded 12-18 to include Boston, northeast MA down to Foxboro to Worcester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 RGEM looked a bit cooler and also dug H5 a bit south through hr 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 If the S digging a bit moot if the low takes too long to deepen and get the CCB going? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: RGEM looked a bit cooler and also dug H5 a bit south through hr 15. yeah, 12z trends has been slightly better, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: RGEM looked a bit cooler and also dug H5 a bit south through hr 15. Def colder. Still gets rain out to about 128 but much later than previously and its when the precip lightens up around 03z. It it also has more CCB snow for eastern MA. Pretty decent weenie band early Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 RGEM definitely trended to get the CCB close to NE MA and BOS tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: RGEM definitely trended to get the CCB close to NE MA and BOS tomorrow morning. where do you get the RGEM link from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 RGEM gives the area 1.5" qpf.. so it will really depend on the mix line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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