bboughton Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, RI Rob said: This storm seems to have far less forum hype then Thursdays.. Any reason why? It's a Saturday night. And there's a lot of uncertainty for a good swath of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 minute ago, bboughton said: It's a Saturday night. And there's a lot of uncertainty for a good swath of SNE. Ahhh so people have lives and are doing things and I'm sitting here reading the forums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, RI Rob said: Ahhh so people have lives and are doing things and I'm sitting here reading the forums Plus I don't think this storm is going to perform that well pike-south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 17 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: i see about 1.4 over my fanny 36mm 'ish i keep dream of a 97 redux, how much qpf was in that thing 3". Nothing will ever top that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Also, When you are on the SW edge of things regarding the CCB (as E. MA is) small differences in regards to development make a big difference. At 0z hi res NAM, GFS and UK all give me 1.2-1.5" QPF. If CCB wiffs for me I get ~8" most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Here we go Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Hoping WIll is in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, ajisai said: Here we go Euro Hoping for good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 Looks like the euro backed off slightly for MOnday morning in all areas. Still pretty good for ern areas. It's too bad it could not be 50 miles south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 I would say this is not quite as good as 12z...not because of track, but because of rate of deepening. It still has a really nice ULL over ACK and good CCB over E MA, but it is weaker than 12z with everything...so it's a slight step worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 It is slightly further WSW with H7 and H5 though between 12z and 18z monday. Might be enough for lingering snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Slightly warmer than 12z... at 6z Mon, 925T up to about North Shore again on 0z, vs. barely to South Shore on 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It is slightly further WSW with H7 and H5 though between 12z and 18z monday. Might be enough for lingering snows. Yeah if that goes back to deepening at the same rate as 12z, that would be even better than 12z. At any rate, it's gonna be nowcast tomorrow night and Monday morning...tonight didn't really give us any clear answer on what happens in the 2nd half of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I would say this is not quite as good as 12z...not because of track, but because of rate of deepening. It still has a really nice ULL over ACK and good CCB over E MA, but it is weaker than 12z with everything...so it's a slight step worse. Yeah too bad. Still could be fun after like 9z or so in ern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Is there any synoptic reason it did not deepen as rapidly? Was WAA thump much different/ would be surprised if it was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Is there any synoptic reason it did not deepen as rapidly? Was WAA thump much differnet/ would be surprised if it was Nah, not much difference in the WAA part. There wasn't a lot of difference in the CCB part either...just slightly weaker with it. I don't want to overstate the changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 The WAA thump still looks good. I did not see any difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Giving BOS 10-15.. better the north and west you go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 I'm going 8-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm going 8-14 You got 15 on Euro with 10:1.. ratios and other models bringing it down for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, ajisai said: Giving BOS 10-15.. better the north and west you go Tough call for BOS IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Snow clown maps about the same as 12z, maybe shaved a few inches Feels like solutions have stabilized (unfortunately for those right on the edge hoping for further digging and south H5 and surface lows)... It's too bad though I think there is still time for small shifts with big impacts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Tough call for BOS IMO. Nightmare forecast for BOS for part 1 and 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 BOX most likely is 11 now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Tough call for BOS IMO. I don't know why the euro is so high on snow from everything else (not a met). I'm happy with 5" IMBY still. Anything else is great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 minute ago, wxsniss said: Snow clown maps about the same as 12z, maybe shaved a few inches Feels like solutions have stabilized (unfortunately for those right on the edge hoping for further digging and south H5 and surface lows)... It's too bad though I think there is still time for small shifts with big impacts Well they mentioned H7 and H5 were actually a bit WSW of 12z on monday morning. IF this bombs as fast as 12z we are quickly looking at upping numbers. SO unless 12z euro backs off with deepening again this is a now cast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Tough call for BOS IMO. What are you thinking cumulative down here Scott? Seems like 4-8 with round one, and maybe a few inches Monday morning depending on when the storm gets going? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: BOX most likely is 11 now: To get a snap shot of their confidence, look at the expect at least as much as this for BOS MAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: To get a snap shot of their confidence, look at the expect at least as much as this for BOS MAP 2-13 range although the public will read 8-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 It's a very tough forecast right near BOS for multiple reasons...the amount of BL warmth that tries to make it in during tomorrow evening and then obviously the CCB aspect of the storm early Monday. I could see BOS getting 4" or getting 15". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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