ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: This is going to be a classic case of "mix to start, turning to rain, affecting snow totals" and then we end up with a foot+. People will act like it was a surprise. Bad mets will forecast low totals because of the brief taint. Then we will get smoked. Yeah. Well assuming that the NAM is right. Guidance like the euro would cause more mixing issues right at BOS. I'd certainly feel good like where Jerry is...prob avoid taint there. The trend is good though. So maybe even the coast there doesn't get much mix. You'll want to see another tick cooler on other guidance though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Not surevwhat Hazey was so nervous about. White juan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah. Well assuming that the NAM is right. Guidance like the euro would cause more mixing issues right at BOS. I'd certainly feel good like where Jerry is...prob avoid taint there. The trend is good though. So maybe even the coast there doesn't get much mix. You'll want to see another tick cooler on other guidance though. I'm so bullish that... Idk I'm bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Good memory. If you drew a line from Lenox MA to Concord NH everyone NW of it has been screwed on big events relative to most of SNE. That being said, I don't really see how the atmosphere could screw us on the SWFE tomorrow. Might be our biggest storm in several years here. I'd draw that line into inland w ct. Feb 13, 18" not bad relatively speaking (though I was not living here), compared to double 25miles east. so the last one was Octobomb, same as you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Looks pretty good for you too. Yup. That's the look we are going for. Fun for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Just now, sbos_wx said: I'm so bullish that... Idk I'm bullish I thought we agreed that bullish was for last Thursday, and the theme this time around would be greed for a band to push back our way with that whipping Monday good-good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Not surevwhat Hazey was so nervous about. The rgem has me a bit spooked. That model is pretty good but pretty far east. Like to see that come in line. I know it's outside it's range so I'll admit to overreacting...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Crush for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Man NAM is even close to paste here... a few more ticks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Blizzard watch posted for BGR and points east. EPO forecast includes winds 40+ with gusts 60, and up to 24". Fun spot for a chase, though Machias would be similar and an hour closer to places south and west. GYX hinted that the midcoast will probably go blizwatch once the advisory for the clipper expires. Outside chance of Farmington getting its 2nd 20"+ snowfall in one winter, a feat which (unlike in Boston) has never occurred in 124 winters - 2008-09, with 19.3" 12/21-22 and 26.6" 2/22-23, is closest so far. Time to shovel the porch roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Man the 4K Nam. Has that thing spun like a winter time cane. You guys down south tick a bit colder and it's golden for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Think Rgem(Reggie) has right idea. She's really gonna dig south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 You all are incredible. I just read from where I left last night. I read three-quarters of a page of ripping Kevin L's map that had Boston as 6-12" Then the Euro comes in and its "OMG Boston is going to get 6-12". We were wrong. Blah blah blah. There's a reason it's not called modelology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 55 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: the only big storm he has had up there is feb 13, and ok maybe the october 11 event and one good one around Turkey day a few years ago....I have had a few bigger events than him....he didn't have jan 26-27 2011 either or the retro storm (not sure if you just missed that one or not), or boxing day and the list goes on.... I think he looks ok for this one but his concern is legit and I don't think he complains much at all. He doesn't suffer downsloping issues like I do so for his area nw it has been really about the storm track too far east(whether south or north) or lousy snow growth...in other words just a lot of bad luck I'm almost willing to bet (though it's a better question for Will, perhaps...) that's closer to climatology for that location? They end up with higher totals per season ... because it's colder and just snows more often in smaller affairs than the rest of us. They end up doing it in the aggregate, as it is said.. Contrasting, a stem-wound coastal bomb might meso metro-west Boston with 18" of of thundersnow, once or twice and they end up stealing all the drama. Obviously big events hit everywhere, once in a while,... but perception is politics in the game of snow mania too - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 14 minutes ago, tamarack said: Blizzard watch posted for BGR and points east. EPO forecast includes winds 40+ with gusts 60, and up to 24". Fun spot for a chase, though Machias would be similar and an hour closer to places south and west. GYX hinted that the midcoast will probably go blizwatch once the advisory for the clipper expires. Outside chance of Farmington getting its 2nd 20"+ snowfall in one winter, a feat which (unlike in Boston) has never occurred in 124 winters - 2008-09, with 19.3" 12/21-22 and 26.6" 2/22-23, is closest so far. Time to shovel the porch roof. I'll be in Lubec next Saturday. Alas, just a few days late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 These setups are often down to the wire in my locale, tiny shifts can be the difference between rain on the shore in salem and pounding snow at my place, or rain at my place and pounding snow in west-peabody/lynnfeld. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: You all are incredible. I just read from where I left last night. I read three-quarters of a page of ripping Kevin L's map that had Boston as 6-12" Then the Euro comes in and its "OMG Boston is going to get 6-12". We were wrong. Blah blah blah. There's a reason it's not called modelology. yeah, I posted that map, but I was not ripping, all I said was I wish.. he might be right after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 I read through the last several pages spanning back 8 or so hours and didn't see any deference paid to the 06z GFS... Just an observation of that particular cycle of that particular model; one of the more beautifully depicted actual CCB's you will see on a synoptic chart - which ...unfortunately for the present ongoing meme to eschew QPF charts ...you need to kind of focus on that attribute to really see. But the CCB is clearly wrapping gorgeously into NE Mass on that run, which is a starkly ..if not vastly improved overall signal for substantive impact for eastern Massachusetts ... You don't need a huge number of inches of snow to get into significant impacts to demography, economics and even infrastructure, when there is 40+ mph frequent wind gusts and near 1"/hr snow fall rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 25 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I'd draw that line into inland w ct. Feb 13, 18" not bad relatively speaking (though I was not living here), compared to double 25miles east. so the last one was Octobomb, same as you guys. I was going to draw that line from your house to Concord except you finally cashed in on Thursday. You are close to being voted off the island of Debbie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 24 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Good memory. If you drew a line from Lenox MA to Concord NH everyone NW of it has been screwed on big events relative to most of SNE. That being said, I don't really see how the atmosphere could screw us on the SWFE tomorrow. Might be our biggest storm in several years here. I have been taking records for 32 going on 33 winters, I don't slant stick or ever exaggerate my totals( I don't round up either). I do my best to get measurements in an area with minimal drifting and obstructions. I pay close attention to how each storm behaves region wide as well. Growing up in central ct I guess I got spoiled bc bad winters and all from 1984/85 to 2003/04 Bristol Ct on the Farmington line about 1.5 miles from Tunxis Community College averaged a solid 50 inches/season Imagine if I had lived there another ten years!! This seems somewhat similar to March 01 maybe a bit more ne where you guys are in a solid spot...for those who don't remember further south was sloppy waa with lots of sleet and some rain before bombogenesis south of long island flashed us to decent snows but we just just made it down there as farther sw was left on the outside looking in...I will remain hopeful for a good outcome btw the snow here has already settled 4-5 inches lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I was going to draw that line from your house to Concord except you finally cashed in on Thursday. You are close to being voted off the island of Debbie. ha. happy with 15" I must say but left me wanting that 20" plateau that I have not personally hot since Boxing day. I know, now Im greedy. Didnt you get a foot there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Kinda surprised NWS P&C is all snow here tomorrow. NAM shows a pretty warm layer from 850 to 750. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 16 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: You all are incredible. I just read from where I left last night. I read three-quarters of a page of ripping Kevin L's map that had Boston as 6-12" Then the Euro comes in and its "OMG Boston is going to get 6-12". We were wrong. Blah blah blah. There's a reason it's not called modelology. Ironically his map was a rip and read of the RPM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 In fact weather.cod NAM snow accumulation graphic is virtually snowless from me to Runnaway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 1 minute ago, H2Otown_WX said: In fact weather.cod NAM snow accumulation graphic is virtually snowless from me to Runnaway yea, snow algorythms ftl. warm tongue gets here but not after 4-5" of thump imo. we will see if rgem is sniffing something out or sniffing something up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm almost willing to bet (though it's a better question for Will, perhaps...) that's closer to climatology for that location? They end up with higher totals per season ... because it's colder and just snows more often in smaller affairs than the rest of us. They end up doing it in the aggregate, as it is said.. Contrasting, a stem-wound coastal bomb might meso metro-west Boston with 18" of of thundersnow, once or twice and they end up stealing all the drama. Obviously big events hit everywhere, once in a while,... but perception is politics in the game of snow mania too - Good post. I feel you may be correct that WNE is more a nickel and dime cash zone and is certainly not ideal for major impacts from NorEasters unless they are coastal huggers which don't seem to come with frequency in the current regime. Anybody who skis in S VT resorts will attest to the recent lack of block buster snow falls and great powder days. However, I love me some SWFE action and this year has been better in that regard. One thing we can't really b*tch about here is snow retention. I'll still be watching snow melt while Bob is raking his gardens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 12z rgem did come back to earth a bit. Still good but deff warmer along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 12z rgem did come back to earth a bit. Still good but deff warmer along the coast. Indeed. Crushes a lot of folks. This could be as close as can get for a one storm fits all. Probably won't see this setup again for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Reggie with the hammer crush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: yea, snow algorythms ftl. warm tongue gets here but not after 4-5" of thump imo. we will see if rgem is sniffing something out or sniffing something up. Meteorology not modelology FTW? I think you're right though, if RGEM is onto something we should get like 4-6" before flipping around 6 or 7 pm. I think maybe the 6-10" all the way to the coast may be overdone but fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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