psv88 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Rgem still has nyc and li getting a few inches of slop tomorrow. Not sure what to expect up here. Rgem has been incredible lately around here, nam not so much. I could see extreme north shore with a slushy inch and south shore just some catpaws. That's my gut with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Gfs coming in slightly colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 10 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Yea. Verbatim rgem is an inch of slop for north shore of li and the northern boros. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Just now, psv88 said: Yea. Verbatim rgem is an inch of slop for north shore of li and the northern boros. It looks to be slightly less than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Just now, EastonSN+ said: It looks to be slightly less than 6z. Yea. I'm not expecting anything at all so whatever falls is a plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Just now, psv88 said: Yea. I'm not expecting anything at all so whatever falls is a plus. Hopefully we get something mid week. Would hate to waste the opportunity with the way the teleconnections are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Hopefully we get something mid week. Would hate to waste the opportunity with the way the teleconnections are. I'm flying out to Florida Wednesday, so just keep that day clear... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs coming in slightly colder Some of this is icing, but not much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 GFS now shows 2-4 inches for NYC on the tropical tidbits map , same as the Rgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Some of this is icing, but not much Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 Ahh the beloved kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Gfs seems to be showing elevation enhanced snows in NJ, goes against the gradient theme of the past few runs on other models. Will the cad hold up? There doesn't seem to be a good hp to anchor in any lasting cold, once south of 84. I'm not expecting anything other than some onset sleet; not really disappointed. I am looking forward to being surprised though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Ahh the beloved kuchera I'm not falling for the Kuchera again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: I'm not falling for the Kuchera again Ok plain old 10:1 it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 23 minutes ago, psv88 said: I'm flying out to Florida Wednesday, so just keep that day clear... 78 here in Miami right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, snywx said: 78 here in Miami right now. Excellent. Warm winter down there. Can't wait. I'll be in Deerfield beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 This should be your usual, maybe a little better SWFE type event that hits I-90 hard, maybe down to I-84 or the northern suburbs if it's cold enough. The redevelopment will be good for NNE and probably Boston. A good reminder of why they average more snow than most of us do. I doubt NYC itself sees more than a slushy inch if that. Where I live it won't be more than some snow mixing with rain at times. SWFEs are good for I-90, NYC normally gets some table scraps at best. I'm not really paying attention to this one-I'm more focused on Thursday. Hopefully the Orange/Putnam and interior CT posters can pull a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 Ggem is cold for the interior.. doesn't translate for coast or NNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 i'm more in awe with the wide swath of 65 mph gusts at 925mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 No real mixing on GGEM like GFS or Nam, either snow or rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 Just now, Sophisticated Skeptic said: i'm more in awe with the wide swath of 65 mph gusts at 925mb I'd love to be on the south shore of Maine.. they're getting an unreal stretch of winter weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 7 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: No real mixing on GGEM like GFS or Nam, either snow or rain ^ Honestly if I had to draw up a map for tomorrow, that would be it right there, exactly what I expect to happen. Only slight difference is I would extend it down a little into northern Sussex County, NJ, but that's it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 15 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I'd love to be on the south shore of Maine.. they're getting an unreal stretch of winter weather I agree with others here on the CAD as well. It always under does it, when a strong snowpack is intact. Especially how the flow will be coming straight from new england / long island tomorrow and tomorrow night, where most areas still have over a foot on the ground. Expect colder runs at 0z. NAM hinted at it first...GFS followed. don't let today's mild day fool ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 23 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I'd love to be on the south shore of Maine.. they're getting an unreal stretch of winter weather Deer isle ME Hurricane WW? Sunday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow after 1am. Low around 27. Windy, with an east wind 24 to 32 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Monday Snow before 2pm, then rain and snow between 2pm and 4pm, then snow likely after 4pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. High near 32. Very windy, with a north wind 43 to 50 mph, with gusts as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 The 2 WRF models are very cold, RGEM like all snow north of NYC/rockland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Hey Billy or anyone else I am not familiar with the " two WRF " models are they usually reliable ? short range ? what are those ? Also I saw you posted possible predictions earlier and what you thought might happen do any of these model runs that came out since change your thinking on that ? I cant get over how some model runs have it snowing in the City and on LI and others dont ,time will tell I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 14 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Hey Billy or anyone else I am not familiar with the " two WRF " models are they usually reliable ? short range ? what are those ? Also I saw you posted possible predictions earlier and what you thought might happen do any of these model runs that came out since change your thinking on that ? I cant get over how some model runs have it snowing in the City and on LI and others dont ,time will tell I guess WRF stands for "weather research forecasting" it's part of a "next gen" meso models that are combined to provide both dynamic atmospheric and operational surface forecasting... I've found that these are VERY good for detecting banding in snowstorms, tempature gradients (CAD especially) and sever storm threats during the season. Generally I look at them as a guiding tool... if they're features seem in line with most guidance ( like mid level troughs, shortwave features, and northern stream interactions, such is the case needed with most snowstorms, they are usually very accurate depicting rain//snow lines, and meso banding features... ARW (Advanced Research WRF) this model is used ALOT during hurricane season NMM (Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model) is run as an extension of the NAM which a lot of people dont realize. the srefs are also an extension of the nam (a lot of people dont realize also) the srefs are actually the nams version of its ensemble members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 I wouldn't sleep on the CAD. US is right I think a further shift south will continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 I wouldn't sleep on the CAD. US is right I think a further shift south will continue I personally just see this coming off of snj / Delmarva. The NAO will be just enough to slow it down and when it explodes (30-35 mb in 12-18 hours), I think NNJ, NYC and perhaps even CNJ see a decent hit and LI and points NE get smoked. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.