UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Wow, it would be amazing if our snow could surpass the last storm No way I'm getting more than 14 lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I think this is going to disappoint a lot of people unless you live in Orange, Putnam or Sussex counties on north. I think it's little if any snow south of there and I doubt even very much sleet or freezing rain either. This looks like mostly a rain event to me. It's going to be in the upper 30's in Rockland County tomorrow. I honestly think NWS jumped the gun with the WWA However to be fair the NWS specified that they are probably too generous on the temps. Let's see how this plays out today. I think if your north of 287 you should be fine for an advisory snow n sleet with not that much rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Nam looks slightly colder through 24 compared to 6z but nothing major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: Nam looks slightly colder through 24 compared to 6z but nothing major. Slight ticks is really all you need with this we still have a full day of runs to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Slight ticks is really all you need with this we still have a full day of runs to go. If anything, this can benefit areas away from the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: If anything, this can benefit areas away from the coast Yes I totally agree with you on that. Places south of NYC would need a major shift. North of NYC looks decent already and with a further south shift it could even make it better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Nam Para is colder than the Nam Icy mess for areas just north of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 Ice sig on Nam for NWNJ and NEPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: If anything, this can benefit areas away from the coast I think you have to be 50 miles north and west of the city for this one buddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 14 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I think this is going to disappoint a lot of people unless you live in Orange, Putnam or Sussex counties on north. I think it's little if any snow south of there and I doubt even very much sleet or freezing rain either. This looks like mostly a rain event to me. It's going to be in the upper 30's in Rockland County tomorrow. I honestly think NWS jumped the gun with the WWA Can you post your reasoning please without "i think"? Or at least explain why these models are wrong with their temps? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 Just now, BxEngine said: Can you post your reasoning please without "i think"? Or at least explain why these models are wrong with their temps? Thanks. As I've said.. this could really surprise immediate burbs not expecting much, classic CAD signature on most models.. RGEM may be overdoing it, but a decent compromise of euro/Nam/RGEM points to a decent advisory event and some icing, especially NNJ and SNY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 Nam really hits putnum and northern westchester with a couple hours of heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 Interesting run, our LP continues to slide east, never pushes through WNY, hits 998 just east off jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Can you post your reasoning please without "i think"? Or at least explain why these models are wrong with their temps? Thanks. About to head down to the city for the day and evening but I think the RGEM is way, way overdoing it with the CAA, among other things, NAM is slightly overdone too. We'll see tonight, I'm confident this underperforms what folks are thinking right now for south of Orange, Putnam and Sussex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Interesting run, our LP continues to slide east, never pushes through WNY, hits 998 just east off jersey Nice trend. It will be an interesting 18z run coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 CAD is almost always underdone so I'd be worried about icing not too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 12 minutes ago, allgame830 said: However to be fair the NWS specified that they are probably too generous on the temps. Let's see how this plays out today. I think if your north of 287 you should be fine for an advisory snow n sleet with not that much rain. I'm in the Edison area, just north of 287, so I guess I'll prepare for snow. Just kidding. Pet peeve of mine when people refer to 287 as if it's a single point or line (I know you meant north of the Tappan Zee part). Even mets do it all the time: "and it'll be 2-4" north and west of 287." That's so imprecise. What they really mean, most of the time, is north of the Tappan Zee part and west of the part in NJ from Mahwah to I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 11 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I think you have to be 50 miles north and west of the city for this one buddy I strongly disagree... the strong CAD signal being advertised on the models is very real. The boundary away from the coast in a situation like this should only be 25-30 miles and it could even reach down into Southern Westchester. We also have a nice snowpack on the ground right now so that should also help in our favor. Do not underestimate the strength of CAD it has bitten us in the ass many of times. Look at the Valentines Day Sleet storm if I remember correctly it was supposed to go over to rain and that never came!!! The temps stayed in the upper 20's because of the cold air filtrating down the Hudson! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 Honestly,12z Nam would be a concern for mixing areas currently expecting all snow (north of 84 and putnum) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Ah the ever battle of the optimists vs pessimists in this forum. Lets see who comes on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 47 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: lol Irish Bob.... I could have called you William ,,lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: CAD is almost always underdone so I'd be worried about icing not too far north. And models like the Nam and RGEM see it better than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 A lot more ice for northern sections, decent amount of sleet northern orange, Ulster, Sullivan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Winds could be a big story as well if this continues trending stronger, further SW. Gfs already suggest HWW are possible. We will definitely see wind advisories get hoisted up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Does the RGEM generally have a cold bias?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: Does the RGEM generally have a cold bias?? RGEM is usually deadly within 12hours... and has no true biased in this time frame... once in a while it duds... but I'd say 90% of the time it's accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: RGEM is usually deadly within 12hours... and has no true biased in this time frame... once in a while it duds... but I'd say 90% of the time it's accurate Well that is certainly a huge plus for the area since it was a nice thump of snow. Also what looks to be the start time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 9 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: A lot more ice for northern sections, decent amount of sleet northern orange, Ulster, Sullivan Concerned about sleet up here cutting totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 RGEM is most likely seeing the CAD better than the other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 40 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Winds could be a big story as well if this continues trending stronger, further SW. Gfs already suggest HWW are possible. We will definitely see wind advisories get hoisted up. 12z nam has it dropping 34MB's in 15 hours. that has to be close to a record. From hours 39 to 54. (993mb to 959mb ) 4km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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