SEC Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Sullivan County (NY) and Luzerne, Lackawanna, Wayne, Pike counties in Pennsylvania will be under a Winter Weather Advisory as of 1 a.m. Sunday. Snow accumulations of 2-4 inches and 1/10" of ice are expected on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 Way outside its range, but don't fall asleep on this threat NYCmetro.. Do not... underestimate CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 19 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Way outside its range, but don't fall asleep on this threat NYCmetro.. Do not... underestimate CAD Hey Billy or anyone else sorry for the questions as I said I am new to much of this but what exactly is the CAD ? In keeping with the thread it is possible that this can still trend South ( I dont see why it cant ) I mean which guidance do we trust at this range ? I know the Nam and RGEM were very good last event and I would like to stick with the hot hand . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 So I woke up today under an advisory for 2-4 inches. Any chance for a warning being issued for Northern Westchester? Just wondering because my son has a bday party tomorrow. Thanks in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 8 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Hey Billy or anyone else sorry for the questions as I said I am new to much of this but what exactly is the CAD ? In keeping with the thread it is possible that this can still trend South ( I dont see why it cant ) I mean which guidance do we trust at this range ? I know the Nam and RGEM were very good last event and I would like to stick with the hot hand . CAD is cold air damning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Thank You Allgame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 33 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Way outside its range, but don't fall asleep on this threat NYCmetro.. Do not... underestimate CAD This shows sleet for my area (but very close to the snow line) if the HRRR is correct, another bump south and it would be snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 25 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Hey Billy or anyone else sorry for the questions as I said I am new to much of this but what exactly is the CAD ? In keeping with the thread it is possible that this can still trend South ( I dont see why it cant ) I mean which guidance do we trust at this range ? I know the Nam and RGEM were very good last event and I would like to stick with the hot hand . http://www.theweatherprediction.com/weatherpapers/050/index.html this site has a lot of good explanations for stuff like that (to be honest i didnt read this one but ive had that site bookmarked forever). Dont apologize for asking questions like that, please! Gotta learn somehow. Only questions frowned upon are of the "how much for my area" and things of that nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 32 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Hey Billy or anyone else sorry for the questions as I said I am new to much of this but what exactly is the CAD ? In keeping with the thread it is possible that this can still trend South ( I dont see why it cant ) I mean which guidance do we trust at this range ? I know the Nam and RGEM were very good last event and I would like to stick with the hot hand . 4 minutes ago, BxEngine said: http://www.theweatherprediction.com/weatherpapers/050/index.html this site has a lot of good explanations for stuff like that (to be honest i didnt read this one but ive had that site bookmarked forever). Dont apologize for asking questions like that, please! Gotta learn somehow. Only questions frowned upon are of the "how much for my area" and things of that nature. BX reply is spot on. We all learned this stuff at some point but I think some forget that. You'll find there are plenty of people on here that will help anyone learn about the weather and teach the proper ways to observe and record it. We get frustrated with the other type of poster that refuses to learn and read a bit on their own and just want specific answers to IMBY questions that were already answered if the poster took some time and read through the posts. If you have the right attitude, and it seems like you do, you can learn a lot on this board. Cheers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Wondering if this will continue to trend south so that the 8-12 accumulations can arrive in Dutchess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Here's my call for this event 0-coating NYC and points south 1-3 NYC to Rockland ( Bear Mt Bridge) 2-5" Bear mountain to Newburgh (SWF) 4-8" Newburgh to Kingston 8-12+ north of there I think totals Will stay pretty uniform east to west based on latitude NWNJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 It seems like the gradient is based on latitude as opposed to elevation, at least for NwNj. Sussex/west Milford seems to have the best shot at frozen. I'm in the hills of south west Morris, but I doubt I see much frozen unless the s/w countiues to drive south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 thanks BX and Irish Bob,,,ps the link explained it pretty well , Im just trying to absorb it there was a lot of info there lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off In Upton's they speak about temps for Sunday could be rather generous where I for example only have a forecast high of 35 degrees. This really could complex the forecast even further and result in a mostly frozen event of the LHV and more potential for ice for the NYC area. It seems that places up above 84 are a shoe in for a warning type snowfall. Today could be extremely interesting to see if the trends continue!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 1 hour ago, nesussxwx said: NWNJ? 2-3".. Unless we get 1 or 2 more ticks south you are gonna need to be N of the NY/NJ line. The gradient from 0-8" is gonna be tight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Have to wonder if this trends a little bit further south at 12z, we will know soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 57 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: thanks BX and Irish Bob,,,ps the link explained it pretty well , Im just trying to absorb it there was a lot of info there lol lol Irish Bob.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 I think you're going to be disappointed if you're hoping for significant snows unless you're at least 30 miles North of the city. It looks like a mostly mixed bag event with a lot of IP and ZR to contend with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 I like how the south shore of Suffolk has more snow than Staten Island. Its going purely latitude based. This seems too snowy to me though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 2 hours ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Here's my call for this event 0-coating NYC and points south 1-3 NYC to Rockland ( Bear Mt Bridge) 2-5" Bear mountain to Newburgh (SWF) 4-8" Newburgh to Kingston 8-12+ north of there I think totals Will stay pretty uniform east to west based on latitude There ya go with west of the river again Hey Julian, take care of this guy will ya Most of the maps that have been posted show a slight twist and go somewhat longitudinal as you go further east. This leads me to think that CAD will drop into northern Westchester on and along the Taconic crest. The river corridor through Putnam and Westchester may see results similar to the west side but as you cross the crest I think the all frozen line drops down to around Mt Kisco or so. I do expect a fair bit of sleet to mix in bringing our accumulated totals down but I don't expect to see much for plain rain. I'm thinking ~4" from the area around Mt Kisco up to Carmel then more as you go north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: Very nice CAD sig. Any particular reason why that is showing more snow north 287 in Westchester than in NW NJ... can you please explain?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: Any particular reason why that is showing more snow north 287 in Westchester than in NW NJ... can you please explain?? See my post right above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Just now, gravitylover said: See my post right above Oh ok I had read it after I posted. So places like where you and I are could fair better than NW NJ because of a strong CAD signal?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, gravitylover said: There ya go with west of the river again Hey Julian, take care of this guy will ya Most of the maps that have been posted show a slight twist and go somewhat longitudinal as you go further east. This leads me to think that CAD will drop into northern Westchester on and along the Taconic crest. The river corridor through Putnam and Westchester may see results similar to the west side but as you cross the crest I think the all frozen line drops down to around Mt Kisco or so. I do expect a fair bit of sleet to mix in bringing our accumulated totals down but I don't expect to see much for plain rain. I'm thinking ~4" from the area around Mt Kisco up to Carmel then more as you go north. Yea to be honest... I didn't really wanna get that specific lol... I figured one if you easterners could figure it out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 The orientation of our trough is already better on the nam... I expect this to be a cooler RGEM type solution... it's slower, a tad south, slightly more amped, and sharper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Oh ok I had read it after I posted. So places like where you and I are could fair better than NW NJ because of a strong CAD signal?? Yup. After over 20 years here I can say that it's pretty typical for that to be the "break line" in storms like this. 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Yea to be honest... I didn't really wanna get that specific lol... I figured one if you easterners could figure it out lol I got it covered Unfortunately I'm going to have to be away from the computer for the next 6 hours or so. Y'all are on your own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I think you're going to be disappointed if you're hoping for significant snows unless you're at least 30 miles North of the city. It looks like a mostly mixed bag event with a lot of IP and ZR to contend with. I think this is going to disappoint a lot of people unless you live in Orange, Putnam or Sussex counties on north. I think it's little if any snow south of there and I doubt even very much sleet or freezing rain either. This looks like mostly a rain event to me. It's going to be in the upper 30's in Rockland County tomorrow. I honestly think NWS jumped the gun with the WWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 1 minute ago, gravitylover said: Yup. After over 20 years here I can say that it's pretty typical for that to be the "break line" in storms like this. I got it covered Unfortunately I'm going to have to be away from the computer for the next 6 hours or so. Y'all are on your own Ok very interesting I didn't expect that to be the situation thanks for bring that to light and further clarifying the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: The orientation of our trough is already better on the nam... I expect this to be a cooler RGEM type solution... it's slower, a tad south, slightly more amped, and sharper Wow, it would be amazing if our snow could surpass the last storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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