USCG RS Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Slightly positive trend on GFS, it was def slower, and a tad colder Euro has a better handle currently. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 This is all you need to know... follow the trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 I would expect the GFS to perform worst on this as its resolution usually doesn't allow it to see CAD very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: I would expect the GFS to perform worst on this as its resolution usually doesn't allow it to see CAD very well. Cad is never modeled well... as most of us interior folks can attest.. it's ALWAYS under modeled... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 We are within 36 so I will focus on ST high res modeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Wow ulster, this is looking good I wonder what the rgem resolution model shows? This could end up being snow to drizzle for you and snow to some light rain even for the city. I might have been wrong about this potential! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 1 minute ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Wow ulster, this is looking good I wonder what the rgem resolution model shows? This could end up being snow to drizzle for you and snow to some light rain even for the city. I might have been wrong about this potential! If anything we would start as drizzle and change to snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Been hardly tracking this event, but I am supposed to drive from the city out to Stroudsburg, PA and back on Sunday. That's looking pretty dubious given this setup, isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 Not there yet, but GGEM takes a major shift to snowier/colder guidance. That 850 line was close to Albany last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 Ggem trend is real too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Not there yet, but GGEM takes a major shift to snowier/colder guidance. That 850 line was close to Albany last runA 50-75 mile shift and nyc is in for a good hit and long island gets smoked. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 1 hour ago, USCG RS said: A 50-75 mile shift and nyc is in for a good hit and long island gets smoked. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk It'll take a miracle for a real storm to happen SW of Bridgeport. The Euro tonight seemed to be really good for SNE including Boston but it seems to just focus on that area vs extending to us. The trough has to dig a good bit more and I don't see that happening this close in. Maybe eastern LI can get swiped if the aggressive models get a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 It'll take a miracle for a real storm to happen SW of Bridgeport. The Euro tonight seemed to be really good for SNE including Boston but it seems to just focus on that area vs extending to us. The trough has to dig a good bit more and I don't see that happening this close in. Maybe eastern LI can get swiped if the aggressive models get a little better. Euro was a good hit for SNE North. I still personally think the trough isn't quite modeled correctly yet, but time will tell. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 I'm not that interested in Sun night/Monday-that one's for north of I-84, interior SNE, Boston, maybe the twin forks and Maine. I'm more interested in the late week event if the pattern comes together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 I'm not that interested in Sun night/Monday-that one's for north of I-84, interior SNE, Boston, maybe the twin forks and Maine. I'm more interested in the late week event if the pattern comes together. All the ingredients are there for that one. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 I'm not that interested in Sun night/Monday-that one's for north of I-84, interior SNE, Boston, maybe the twin forks and Maine. I'm more interested in the late week event if the pattern comes together. For the record... Euro came significantly SW. I'm not convinced this is done trending Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 1 minute ago, USCG RS said: For the record... Euro came significantly SW. I'm not convinced this is done trending Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk I think we start as snow but change to rain rather quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 I think we start as snow but change to rain rather quickly If it comes further SW, it bombs out closer to our latitude and LI would get in on a heck of a hit. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Saw the euro snow map in the New England portal. looked like 2-3 far southern Morris county. 4-8 Sussex County & around 6-8 in Orange County ny, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 So are we to hang our hat with 2 days left to the event ? I mean the RGEM did pretty well with the last storm and I think it would be wise to see what that says tomorrow , maybe I am wrong as I am pretty new to all this but The Nam also had it and it has done very well this season.Are you guys saying this cannot come MORE South and west ? No way this hits below 84 or even the Tap ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 So are we to hang our hat with 2 days left to the event ? I mean the RGEM did pretty well with the last storm and I think it would be wise to see what that says tomorrow , maybe I am wrong as I am pretty new to all this but The Nam also had it and it has done very well this season.Are you guys saying this cannot come MORE South and west ? No way this hits below 84 or even the Tap ?It depends on the commentator here. Each has their own thoughts and opinions, most of them educated and valid. JM, a very good poster, tends to believe, as per his latest comment, that this will not trend SW. I tend to believe that this will trend another 50-75 miles SW and that the surface Lp will come off the SNJ coast / Delmarva region. Time will tell. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 Euro is a warning level event north of rockland county..... and 8+ north of I84 1-3" southward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 Hi res nam is nearly identical to euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 RGEM gets colder... again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 National Weather Service in Albany has issued a Winter Storm Watch...which is in effect from Sunday morning through Monday evening. * LOCATIONS...Ulster and Dutchess counties in New York and Litchfield County Connecticut * HAZARD TYPES...Heavy Snow along with some sleet. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...Greater than 7 inches of snow possible. * TIMING...Snow overspreads the area Sunday morning and is expected to taper off late Sunday night into Monday morning. * IMPACTS...Snow covered roads and poor visibilities. Winds will increase becoming strong and gusty late Sunday night through Monday causing blowing and drifting of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 GFS finally caved to colder euro "like" solution... it's still no RGEM tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 This includes sleet south of 84, north stays all snow mostly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 Other meso guidance (ARE, NMM) points to RGEM/Nam solution... 7+ north of I84 and 3-6 from rockland area north to I84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 EPS were very bullish on snowfall... bringing close to 6" down to rockland with very little mixing north of the Tap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 Here's my call for this event 0-coating NYC and points south 1-3 NYC to Rockland ( Bear Mt Bridge) 2-5" Bear mountain to Newburgh (SWF) 4-8" Newburgh to Kingston 8-12+ north of there I think totals Will stay pretty uniform east to west based on latitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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