UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 Just now, USCG RS said: Sharper trough Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Yea, pay no attention to surface... 500 was much improved again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Yea, pay no attention to surface... 500 was much improved againIt's also a 50-75 shift SW at the surface Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Hi Res nam is also coming in colder Great trends so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 4k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Low over Elkins WV much better than over Letchworth State Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 Wow.. RGEM goes even colder.. really hammers NNJ and parts of LHV at first glance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Wow.. RGEM goes even colder.. really hammers NNJ and parts of LHV at first glance Any hopeful signs for the coast ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 RGEM gets moderate snow down to NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Just based on climo history the RGEM solution is odd. I'm betting we end up with something 50 miles north of that or 50 south. That would just be a highly unusual rain/snow setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: Just based on climo history the RGEM solution is odd. I'm betting we end up with something 50 miles north of that or 50 south. That would just be a highly unusual rain/snow setup CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 Wow... and it's still snowing moderately for many, for several more hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Wow... and it's still snowing moderately for many, for several more hours Wow that is some serious positive trends so far tonight.... GFS and EURO will certainly be interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Wow... and it's still snowing moderately for many, for several more hours Could someone please explain synoptically why the colder trends? Is it that high pressure up north is stronger and in a better position to drain down into a more entrenched CAD setup? Is this setup progged on the NAM and RGEM more consistent with current teleconnections? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Wow that is some serious positive trends so far tonight.... GFS and EURO will certainly be interesting! I know I'm being very bullish this storm, but it's not down trending south. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, USCG RS said: I believe 50-75 miles south. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Agreed, the trough has trended sharper, more of a neutral/neg tilt than earlier progged and it's a tad slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, USCG RS said: I know I'm being very bullish this storm, but it's not down trending south. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk What is your rationale? I am very curious. So hope you are correct! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, USCG RS said: I know I'm being very bullish this storm, but it's not down trending south. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk If that is the case the public is going to be extremely surprised when they wake up tomorrow morning to hear the forecast..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Could someone please explain synoptically why the colder trends? Is it that high pressure up north is stronger and in a better position to drain down into a more entrenched CAD setup? Is this setup progged on the NAM and RGEM more consistent with current teleconnections?They are getting there, but not quite there yet. The AO is progged to stay negative (hence pushing it south). The PNA is going increasingly positive (hence the sharpening of the trough, allowing more digging). The NAO is going negative which is slowing all of this down and allowing the storm to strengthen before it escapes into the Gulf of Maine or put East. The Nam and Rgem are also benefitting from new data, as our current storm system is coming out of no man's land and is beginning to actually be sampled. The 18z runs of the GFS also began to pick up on this (though no new data). Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Agreed, the trough has trended sharper, more of a neutral/neg tilt than earlier progged and it's a tad slower Yes sir. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 1 minute ago, USCG RS said: They are getting there, but not quite there yet. The AO is progged to stay negative (hence pushing it south). The PNA is going increasingly positive (hence the sharpening of the trough, allowing more digging). The NAO is going negative which is slowing all of this down and allowing the storm to strengthen before it escapes into the Gulf of Maine or put East. The Nam and Rgem are also benefitting from new data, as our current storm system is coming out of no man's land and is begging to actually be sampled. The 18z runs of the GFS also began to pick up on this (though no new data). Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Just the answer I was searching, thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, allgame830 said: If that is the case the public is going to be extremely surprised when they wake up tomorrow morning to hear the forecast..... This event didn't look lilke much even for northern New England or northern New York 48-60 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 This event didn't look lilke much even for northern New England or northern New York 48-60 hours ago I'm always interested to hear your input brother.. Thoughts? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 GFS is slightly colder but the result is the same for our area. CT north looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 Just now, USCG RS said: I'm always interested to hear your input brother.. Thoughts? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Through 28 hours the GFS doesn't look like it's going to join the party but we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: Through 28 hours the GFS doesn't look like it's going to join the party but we'll see Trough actually looks a little more flat than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2017 Author Share Posted February 11, 2017 Slightly positive trend on GFS, it was def slower, and a tad colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Trough actually looks a little more flat than 18z Yep and slightly colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.