UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Well that's a little bump south looks to be around an 1" increase for Westchester county but a bunch more to north of Rockland and Putnam. Nice trends so far. Maybe I can get up to advisory snows. Para Nam is pretty snowy, and a decent bump south, some ice for immidiate burbs as well, mostly rain for the island however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 No surprise the GFS remains the warmest guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 12 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: No surprise the GFS remains the warmest guidance What factors would bring the cold air further south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 If we could get this to dig further Southeast, which wouldn't surprise me all that much given what we've seen over the past few years, we could end up with an explosive setup. The GFS closes off at H5 near Cape Cod, but the surface low passes right off the NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: What factors would bring the cold air further south? What yanks said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 If we could get this to dig further Southeast, which wouldn't surprise me all that much given what we've seen over the past few years, we could end up with an explosive setup. The GFS closes off at H5 near Cape Cod, but the surface low passes right off the NJ coast.Given the synaptic set up, this looks to come off Delmarva to me. This yields the 850 South and East of the island. 700 would be ok as well with an explosive set up. Taking the path of least resistance, I see this coming south with surface and ULL.Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 37 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Para Nam is pretty snowy, and a decent bump south, some ice for immidiate burbs as well, mostly rain for the island however I'm surprised that those graphics are showing that amount of ZR and SN. The surface looks way too warm to me and the rest of the levels go above freezing very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Here is what I was talking about regarding the GFS. Even these normally snow happy precip type maps are showing almost all plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 The 12z GGEM looks very similar to the GFS with a mostly rain solution even well inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I'm surprised that those graphics are showing that amount of ZR and SN. The surface looks way too warm to me and the rest of the levels go above freezing very quickly. As am I. Something is wrong with that output, the mid levels are way above freezing as is the surface. It's definitely unsupportive of sleet and freezing rain for that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: As am I. Something is wrong with that output, the mid levels are way about freezing as is the surface. It's definitely unsupportive of sleet and freezing rain for that area We just don't have enough cold air around which is hard to believe with as cold as it is today. We get into Southwest flow with the surface low tracking just to our South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 The GFS dumps close to an inch of rain over parts of NNJ, that combined with the snowmelt could make for some flooding concerns. Especially if things trend wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 Euro much colder and south.. absolutely crushes interior... 4-8" from rockland county to 84, north of 84 is 8+" Its very tight gradient so it's hard to explain snow totals... south rockland starts at 2" north rockland sees 5" lol... Orange County goes from 3 to 8 up north, Ulster northern Putnam, and southern dutchess starts 8+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Euro much colder and south.. absolutely crushes interior... 4-8" from rockland county to 84, north of 84 is 8+" Now that makes sense teleconnections wise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Now that makes sense teleconnections wise! Actually doesn't look like it shifted that far south to me, looks like it's a bit more progressive tbh. However, I am looking on my phone and not too closely. That being said, the southern shifts should continue. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 Wish I could post... lol... warning level snows shifted about 25 miles south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Wish I could post... lol... warning level snows shifted about 25 miles south What about h5? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, USCG RS said: What about h5? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk It's slightly sharper, hence the slight shift.. but relatively close to 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 H5 closes off over cape cod... what a beast on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: H5 closes off over cape cod... what a beast on the euro Wait until you see day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 H5 closes off over cape cod... what a beast on the euroBaby steps. Not quite yet. This is coming sw though. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Wait until you see day 6. Wow drops almost another foot area wide next Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Wow drops almost another foot area wide next Thursday Would that include city or too warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: Would that include city or too warm? City too, big east to west gradient tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 City too, big east to west gradient thoYeah, E LI sees .7-.9Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Wish I could post... lol... warning level snows shifted about 25 miles south Does Northern Westchester seem a difference from this run compared to the previous one?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 Looks like Nam wants to hold the surface low over the lakes a tad longer, before the coastal takes over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 10, 2017 Share Posted February 10, 2017 The 12z ECM mean is generally supportive of the day 6 threat, but the mean is further East than the OP. I would say that's a fairly significant positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 Really strange run for the nam, coastal doesn't take over till storms E of LI... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 Nam.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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