Animal Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nam drops better snows into LHV but doesn't translate to colder for NYC/LI bavent seen hi res yet looks like the ice line hangs around i 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 minute ago, NorthShoreWx said: Well, the increasing cloud cover won't promote thermal radiation, but yes. The breeze here is also very light, even if it is from the northeast. There is a lot of much colder air to the northeast and pretty good model consensus that it is at least going to get closer to us, but I think we are misidentifying this current cool down from daytime temperatures as CAD. you have to factor in that there is not much snow cover left in the urban areas with all the cement and paved surfaces which is keeping temps from falling as much as suburban areas with more snowcover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Wet Snow Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nam drops better snows into LHV but doesn't translate to colder for NYC/LI bavent seen hi res yet Was going to say nam looks great tap north. Mod snow to a drizzle then back to snow showers as the low pulls away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, Heavy Wet Snow said: Was going to say nam looks great tap north. Mod snow to a drizzle then back to snow showers as the low pulls away. Those 2 hours where rain pushes all the way up to Kingston is noise...hi res should see it and keep it snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Wet Snow Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Those 2 hours where rain pushes all the way up to Kingston is noise...hi res should see it and keep it snow You see no shot at some back door snows from the bombing coastal. I see NWS mentions it as a wild card for east areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 2 hours ago, gravitylover said: This stuff on the ground has already gone stale and will have a minimal impact. Snow on the ground is snow on the ground, with regard to thermodynamics and melting/evaporational effects. However, snow age will certainly impact albedo, as fresh snow has an albedo near 0.9, while 3-day old melting snow would typically have an albedo of about 0.6, so I would still expect some effect on the surface temps tomorrow, due to the snowpack. http://www.cmosarchives.ca/CB/cb110101.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, Heavy Wet Snow said: You see no shot at some back door snows from the bombing coastal. I see NWS mentions it as a wild card for east areas We may see some lingering snows like last storm, but I'm not expecting anything worth much from the coastal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 total qpf through hr 30. storm over mostly. Ice could be terrible in certain areas. Mountain folk up north may get a foot!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 Some of this south of Newburgh area is ice, north of there, all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 NAM showing an inch of snow/sleet (sleet presumably) down to the Edison area, falling between 10 am and 1 pm - very surprised, as the NWS forecast is for essentially all rain for us and anyone south of 78, really. Could be a more interesting day than I thought. Will be out in it - I play soccer every Sunday from 8-10 am with a bunch of other middle-aged guys (full field 11 on 11 - it's a blast) and this one will be in the couple of inches of snow we have left - love playing in the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 Nam would border a cat 2/3 hurricane (pressure wise) once it bombs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 33/29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 38/27. Going to be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 This is mostly rain with some sleet for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, mimillman said: This is mostly rain with some sleet for NYC Explain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Explain? 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Explain? Even on the NAM, 850mb low passes just to the south if not over the south shore of Long Island. Not a condusive set up for snow, and the city proper always underperforms with freezing rain due to the heat from the city. You will do well. Again. #interiorwinter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 minute ago, mimillman said: Even on the NAM, 850mb low passes just to the south if not over the south shore of Long Island. Not a condusive set up for snow, and the city proper always underperforms with freezing rain due to the heat from the city. You will do well. Again. #interiorwinter Not if that cold air just NE of us has something to say about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Not if that cold air just NE of us has something to say about that. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 8 minutes ago, mimillman said: Even on the NAM, 850mb low passes just to the south if not over the south shore of Long Island. Not a condusive set up for snow, and the city proper always underperforms with freezing rain due to the heat from the city. You will do well. Again. #interiorwinter This is turning into another latitude dependent winter, not interior or coast. Harrisburg PA has I think 6" for the winter. Early predictions and the La Niña type pattern suggested this might happen. It's revenge for the El Niño driven winter last year where New England got shafted. Hopefully this isn't the start of another ridiculous Boston run while NYC gets a swipe or rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Not if that cold air just NE of us has something to say about that. Still need the 850 low to form 40-50 miles south of current modeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, mikem81 said: Still need the 850 low to form 40-50 miles south of current modeling This late, that isn't happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 True snowicane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: This late, that isn't happening. That's why it'll be a kitchen sink deal for the majority of the NYC metro until you get north of NJ and into S CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, jm1220 said: This is turning into another latitude dependent winter, not interior or coast. Harrisburg PA has I think 6" for the winter. Early predictions and the La Niña type pattern suggested this might happen. It's revenge for the El Niño driven winter last year where New England got shafted. Hopefully this isn't the start of another ridiculous Boston run while NYC gets a swipe or rain. I thought I saw NYC is at like 20 inches for the year......are you serious Clark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 Back end wind gusts will be +50 well Inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: True snowicane I could go for some chowder in Portland right about now... Road trip anyone? They'll have a 3 ft snowpack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, Animal said: I thought I saw NYC is at like 20 inches for the year......are you serious Clark. Philadelphia is at like 7" I believe.Yeah latitude dependent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 30/24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Animal said: I thought I saw NYC is at like 20 inches for the year......are you serious Clark. After this storm, NYC (which should probably be at 23" or so with the questionable measurement in Jan's storm) will be about where it's at now, Boston should be over 40", PHL at 8", Harrisburg at 6" and DCA at 1.5". That's what I mean by a latitude winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 7 minutes ago, jm1220 said: This late, that isn't happening. Not saying it's going to happen, but wasn't it about a 50 mile error in where the low pressure formed (vs. where it was modeled maybe 12-18 hours earlier) for the Blizzard of Jan-15 that led to the Flizzard of Jan-15 for 90% of NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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