nesussxwx Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 minute ago, weatherfreeeeak said: That's mostly icing for NYC not snow Was never a snow event for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 minute ago, weatherfreeeeak said: That's mostly ice for NYC not snow need to see the new snow map.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Seems warmer than the one posted earlier with snow across all of NYC and Long Island. The HRRR can be good at spotting last second trends but can also reverse itself quickly to the model consensus. There were some HRRR runs I think that only have NYC 4-6" from the last storm only to reverse later to the consensus. yea..not seeing the colder run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomcatct Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Just got back from a drive. Ton the shoreline its 35 degrees. JUST north of the Merritt in Easton 31. Easton..amazing how much of a difference it is one you cross the merritt...i leave my house and drive 6 minutes and it's 4 degrees colder once you cross 111 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, nesussxwx said: Was never a snow event for NYC. 5 minutes ago, Animal said: need to see the new snow map.. Yea looks warmer than last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 9 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Seems warmer than the one posted earlier with snow across all of NYC and Long Island. The HRRR can be good at spotting last second trends but can also reverse itself quickly to the model consensus. There were some HRRR runs I think that only had NYC 4-6" from the last storm only to reverse later to the consensus. The hrrr runs posted earlier were from the experimental longer range HRRR, and id expect changes for sure from those solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 Not sure why the Debbie downer stuff... lol... yesterday NYC was expecting rain... newest HRRR keeps NYC and most of Long Island all frozen, with a couple hours of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Wet Snow Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 New hrrr to me looks all snow north shore on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 off topic but I am sitting at 36.9 F at my house. weather bug stations down at lake level 200 feet lower are around 32F...seems odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, Animal said: off topic but I am sitting at 36.9 F at my house. weather bug stations down at lake level 200 feet lower are around 32F...seems odd. Low level cold, CAD sometimes favors lower elevations... im sitting at 34 at 280ft.... shuwangunk mountain ridge is at 36F sitting at close to 2k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, Animal said: off topic but I am sitting at 36.9 F at my house. weather bug stations down at lake level 200 feet lower are around 32F...seems odd. 32/24 at about 650'. Agreed, seems odd. as ulster said, probably low level cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, nesussxwx said: 32/26 at about 650'. Agreed, seems odd. as ulster said, probably low level cold. off topic - I have seen 25F temp swings from house and ice events in the valley in prior years. Not kidding either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 minute ago, nesussxwx said: 32/24 at about 650'. Agreed, seems odd. as ulster said, probably low level cold. Down to 39/here in Queens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 to be honest temps have been going up here went from 39 to 43. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 At 35.4f in croton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 8 minutes ago, Animal said: off topic but I am sitting at 36.9 F at my house. weather bug stations down at lake level 200 feet lower are around 32F...seems odd. In these setups the colder air at the surface holds stronger in the valleys. Elevation actually works against you since the warm layer is shallow. That's why icing is such a major issue with this, especially on the I-80 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 2 hours ago, psv88 said: 37 now. This isn't radiational cooling because its cloudy. Its the NE wind as seen at ISP. A good way to check for an inversion is to look at the temps from the tower at BNL. Right now it is 32 at 2 meters and 36 at 85 meters...which is no big deal but there is a little bit of an inversion. http://wx1.bnl.gov/graph.html Today's high at 85 meters was 42, so there is colder air bleeding in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Just now, Metasequoia said: The Park is still reporting 44. Not great.. I'd go coating to 1" NYC south (slush), 1-3 up to the Merritt in CT (and similar latitudes), 3-5 to 84, then 5+ north of 84. It's not a straight E-W temp gradient so areas to the NE may do better, eg New Haven, CT may do better than White Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: to be honest temps have been going up here went from 39 to 43. Went from 36 to 40 and back to 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Temp down to 36 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 19 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Low level cold, CAD sometimes favors lower elevations... im sitting at 34 at 280ft.... shuwangunk mountain ridge is at 36F sitting at close to 2k I don't think that is CAD, I think it is a typical night time inversion. Temps are almost exactly the same at 10 meters at BNL (31) and about 270 feet higher (36) at 8:40 PM. At least around here the cloud deck has been very thin and at the moment it is crystal clear with a beautiful moon out. Temp IMBY is 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 32* in Sag Harbor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 1 minute ago, NorthShoreWx said: I don't think that is CAD, I think it is a typical night time inversion. Temps are alomst exactly the same at 10 meters at BNL and about 270 feet higher. At least around here the cloud deck has been very thin and at the moment it is crystal clear with a beautiful moon out. Temp IMBY is 33. Wouldn't crystal clear sky's... at night, followed by increasing pre-dawn cloud cover promote rad cooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 its a lot cooler tonight compared to today---34 in New City right now I am looking forward to any and all model runs to see what if any last minute adjustments might be ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, danstorm said: I'd go coating to 1" NYC south (slush), 1-3 up to the Merritt in CT (and similar latitudes), 3-5 to 84, then 5+ north of 84. It's not a straight E-W temp gradient so areas to the NE may do better, eg New Haven, CT may do better than White Plains. Yeah, about what I'd say. I don't think there's much to write home about for this near the coast. I'm more curious about northernmost NJ, White Plains to the CT coast on north/east. There these last second shifts might matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 NAM looking slightly cooler through 16 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, mikem81 said: NAM looking slightly cooler through 16 hours It's warm for NYC after A push of snow/ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 Nam drops better snows into LHV but doesn't translate to colder for NYC/LI bavent seen hi res yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Wouldn't crystal clear sky's... at night, followed by increasing pre-dawn cloud cover promote rad cooling Well, the increasing cloud cover won't promote thermal radiation, but yes. The breeze here is also very light, even if it is from the northeast. There is a lot of much colder air to the northeast and pretty good model consensus that it is at least going to get closer to us, but I think we are misidentifying this current cool down from daytime temperatures as CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 THe placement of the low center is much farther south on the NAM compared to HRRR in western pa at 18 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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