Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,605
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Feb 12-13 Storm Threat


UlsterCountySnowZ

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 568
  • Created
  • Last Reply
2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Seems warmer than the one posted earlier with snow across all of NYC and Long Island. The HRRR can be good at spotting last second trends but can also reverse itself quickly to the model consensus. There were some HRRR runs I think that only have NYC 4-6" from the last storm only to reverse later to the consensus. 

yea..not seeing the colder run.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Just got back from a drive. Ton the shoreline its 35 degrees. JUST north of the Merritt in Easton 31.

Easton..amazing how much of a difference it is one you cross the merritt...i leave my house and drive 6 minutes and it's 4 degrees colder once you cross 111

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Seems warmer than the one posted earlier with snow across all of NYC and Long Island. The HRRR can be good at spotting last second trends but can also reverse itself quickly to the model consensus. There were some HRRR runs I think that only had NYC 4-6" from the last storm only to reverse later to the consensus. 

The hrrr runs posted earlier were from the experimental longer range HRRR, and id expect changes for sure from those solutions

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Animal said:

off topic but I am sitting at 36.9 F at my house.

weather bug stations down at lake level 200 feet lower are around 32F...seems odd.

In these setups the colder air at the surface holds stronger in the valleys. Elevation actually works against you since the warm layer is shallow. That's why icing is such a major issue with this, especially on the I-80 corridor.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, psv88 said:

37 now. This isn't radiational cooling because its cloudy. Its the NE wind as seen at ISP. 

A good way to check for an inversion is to look at the temps from the tower at BNL.  Right now it is 32 at 2 meters and 36 at 85 meters...which is no big deal but there is a little bit of an inversion.

http://wx1.bnl.gov/graph.html

Today's high at 85 meters was 42, so there is colder air bleeding in.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Metasequoia said:

The Park is still reporting 44. Not great.. 

ecmwf_tsnow_boston_25.thumb.png.feaf05c8566eb69c9141561824f8fc6b.png

I'd go coating to 1" NYC south (slush), 1-3 up to the Merritt in CT (and similar latitudes), 3-5 to 84, then 5+ north of 84. 

It's not a straight E-W temp gradient so areas to the NE may do better, eg New Haven, CT may do better than White Plains. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Low level cold, CAD sometimes favors lower elevations...

 

im sitting at 34 at 280ft.... shuwangunk mountain ridge is at 36F sitting at close to 2k

I don't think that is CAD, I think it is a typical night time inversion.  Temps are almost exactly the same at 10 meters at BNL (31) and about 270 feet higher (36) at 8:40 PM.  At least around here the cloud deck has been very thin and at the moment it is crystal clear with a beautiful moon out.  Temp IMBY is 33.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I don't think that is CAD, I think it is a typical night time inversion.  Temps are alomst exactly the same at 10 meters at BNL and about 270 feet higher.  At least around here the cloud deck has been very thin and at the moment it is crystal clear with a beautiful moon out.  Temp IMBY is 33.

Wouldn't crystal clear sky's... at night, followed by increasing pre-dawn cloud cover promote rad cooling

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, danstorm said:

I'd go coating to 1" NYC south (slush), 1-3 up to the Merritt in CT (and similar latitudes), 3-5 to 84, then 5+ north of 84. 

It's not a straight E-W temp gradient so areas to the NE may do better, eg New Haven, CT may do better than White Plains. 

 

Yeah, about what I'd say. I don't think there's much to write home about for this near the coast. I'm more curious about northernmost NJ, White Plains to the CT coast on north/east. There these last second shifts might matter. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Wouldn't crystal clear sky's... at night, followed by increasing pre-dawn cloud cover promote rad cooling

Well, the increasing cloud cover won't promote thermal radiation, but yes.  The breeze here is also very light, even if it is from the northeast.  There is a lot of much colder air to the northeast and pretty good model consensus that it is at least going to get closer to us, but I think we are misidentifying this current cool down from daytime temperatures as CAD.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...