EastonSN+ Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 On 2/11/2017 at 11:16 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Sill snowing 11pm.. hrrr really goes snow crazy, very little mixing 9...12.... then 11pm.... gonna be wintry tomorrow... look out to overperform Expand The HRRR has burned me many times. I agree the RGEM is consistent and usually accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 I'll be slightly interested in 0z later, but still expecting maybe some slush mixed in with rain where I am and most of the city. Hopefully there can be a surprise-we can definitely use a refresher down here where it's been melting all day. The models getting colder has been a little intriguing, but my gut says intriguing to the point it snows like crazy in White Plains and Bridgeport and it's a 35 degree rain down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 On 2/11/2017 at 11:47 PM, EastonSN+ said: The HRRR has burned me many times. I agree the RGEM is consistent and usually accurate. Expand The HRRR is nice eye candy but in 3 hours it could show the snow line staying north of the Bronx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 On 2/11/2017 at 11:17 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: If the city and Long Island can manage somehow to stay all snow... total precip is between .7-.8..... 1.0"+ north of NYC Expand Just came back. Did this creep closer to MMU from before? I can't tell versus earlier. My son has a baseball clinic tomorrow at 2; I don't want to go out in snow and ice if I can help it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 On 2/11/2017 at 11:40 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: North shore should be on their toes for this one Expand I'd like to be in a place like port Jeff for this. I think they are in for a big surprise. Here on the south shore I think it's a couple inches at the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 On 2/11/2017 at 11:51 PM, jm1220 said: I'll be slightly interested in 0z later, but still expecting maybe some slush mixed in with rain where I am and most of the city. Hopefully there can be a surprise-we can definitely use a refresher down here where it's been melting all day. The models getting colder has been a little intriguing, but my gut says intriguing to the point it snows like crazy in White Plains and Bridgeport and it's a 35 degree rain down here. Expand I think south shore that may be about right but I could see north Queens, Manhattan and parts of New Jersey west of NYC having a bad ice storm from this. I would be very surprised if a major snow event occurred in the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 11, 2017 Share Posted February 11, 2017 whats the start time for this event is it morning or afternoon ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Didn't the Euro drop 3-5 in the city or am I just imagining that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 On 2/11/2017 at 11:56 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I'd like to be in a place like port Jeff for this. I think they are in for a big surprise. Here on the south shore I think it's a couple inches at the end Expand I am a little surprised at seeing the 10-1 snow ratio maps saying 3-4" even in Central Park. I still think that's overdone but maybe it's not a pipe dream. There'll be a nice snowpack after this up around I-84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Probably worth monitoring up here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 On 2/11/2017 at 11:58 PM, Brasiluvsnow said: whats the start time for this event is it morning or afternoon ? Expand Sometime after rush hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 I'll take the over on ZR and the under on Snow. Models always underestimate the progression of warm air aloft during SWFE and underestimate CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 36/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 On 2/12/2017 at 12:22 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Sometime after rush hour Expand Rush hour on Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 On 2/12/2017 at 12:24 AM, NJwx85 said: Rush hour on Sunday? Expand Let me add if I may ,Billy would that be the Sunday morning rush hour getting to church or the afternoon rush hour to eat Sunday dinner ? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 On 2/12/2017 at 12:24 AM, NJwx85 said: Rush hour on Sunday? Expand U know what I meant... lol... I work Sunday's so it's my rush hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 On 2/12/2017 at 12:23 AM, NJwx85 said: I'll take the over on ZR and the under on Snow. Models always underestimate the progression of warm air aloft during SWFE and underestimate CAD. Expand think most agree. sorta what noaa is forecasting. Still great to see those snowy short range models!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 35/29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 On 2/12/2017 at 12:29 AM, Animal said: think most agree. sorta what noaa is forecasting. Still great to see those snowy short range models!!! Expand I think areas North of Rt 80 could see a few inches but I don't think anyone should be expecting more than that. A few inches + some ice seems pretty reasonable. The snowpack will help to keep surface temps a few degrees colder too, which could add to any icing threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Down to 36 from a high of 47 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 Nowcasting shows the developing Low is currently in the SE tip of Missouri. about 50 miles more SE than models have depicted . (6 hour forecast) could indicate 0z models show a further 50 mile further S to SE track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 On 2/12/2017 at 12:50 AM, Sophisticated Skeptic said: Nowcasting shows the developing Low is currently in the SE tip of Missouri. about 50 miles more SE than models have depicted . (6 hour forecast) could indicate 0z models show a further 50 mile further S to SE track. Expand What does that mean for us? Asking for... a friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 On 2/12/2017 at 12:51 AM, North and West of Town said: What does that mean for us? Asking for... a friend. Expand slightly colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 Latest HRRR is very cold... Met on twitter just said CAD, low level cold and snowpack is starting to get picked up by models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 On 2/12/2017 at 1:02 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Latest HRRR is very cold... Met on twitter just said CAD, low level cold and snowpack is starting to get picked up by models... Expand some rules here...post it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 On 2/12/2017 at 1:02 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Latest HRRR is very cold... Met on twitter just said CAD, low level cold and snowpack is starting to get picked up by models... Expand Just got back from a drive. Right on the shoreline its 35 degrees. JUST north of the Merritt in Easton 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 On 2/12/2017 at 1:11 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Expand That's mostly icing for NYC not snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 On 2/12/2017 at 1:02 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Latest HRRR is very cold... Met on twitter just said CAD, low level cold and snowpack is starting to get picked up by models... Expand Seems warmer than the one posted earlier with snow across all of NYC and Long Island. The HRRR can be good at spotting last second trends but can also reverse itself quickly to the model consensus. There were some HRRR runs I think that only had NYC 4-6" from the last storm only to reverse later to the consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 12, 2017 Share Posted February 12, 2017 On 2/12/2017 at 1:13 AM, weatherfreeeeak said: That's mostly icing for NYC not snow Expand Need a coastal to pop up further SE than modeled to bring the 850 temps crashing towards the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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